Celje
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Celje32.8%fair odds 3.05
Draw23.6%fair odds 4.24
Red Bull Salzburg43.7%fair odds 2.29
Expected goals1.56 – 1.82total 3.38
Likeliest score1–110.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Red Bull Salzburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Celje ↓ · Red Bull Salzburg → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Celje goals, columns Red Bull Salzburg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.2%9.81
- 1–28.8%11.36
- 2–17.5%13.27
- 2–26.9%14.59
- 0–15.7%17.52
- 0–25.7%17.68
- 1–35.3%18.73
- 1–04.8%20.79
- 2–34.2%24.06
- 2–04.1%24.13
Winning margin
6.2%
Celje by 3+
fair 16.24
9.7%
Celje by 2
fair 10.27
16.9%
Celje by 1
fair 5.93
23.6%
Draw
fair 4.24
19.8%
Red Bull Salzburg by 1
fair 5.05
13.3%
Red Bull Salzburg by 2
fair 7.53
10.6%
Red Bull Salzburg by 3+
fair 9.46
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
19%4
25%5+
Celje goals
21%0
33%1
26%2
13%3
7%4+
Red Bull Salzburg goals
16%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celje win | 32.8% | 32.7% | +0.0 pp |
| Draw | 23.6% | 24.5% | -0.9 pp |
| Red Bull Salzburg win | 43.7% | 42.7% | +0.9 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 65.6% | 61.3% | +4.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 66.6% | 63.4% | +3.2 pp |
| Expected goals Celje | 1.56 | 1.47 | +0.09 |
| Expected goals Red Bull Salzburg | 1.82 | 1.70 | +0.12 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Celje win32.8%3.05
- Draw23.6%4.24
- Red Bull Salzburg win43.7%2.29
- Double chance Celje or draw56.3%1.77
- Double chance Celje or Red Bull Salzburg76.4%1.31
- Double chance Red Bull Salzburg or draw67.2%1.49
- Draw no bet Celje42.9%2.33
- Draw no bet Red Bull Salzburg57.1%1.75
Goals
- Over 0.596.1%1.04
- Over 1.585.5%1.17
- Over 2.565.6%1.53
- Over 3.543.6%2.29
- Over 4.525.1%3.98
- Under 1.514.5%6.92
- Under 2.534.4%2.90
- Under 3.556.4%1.77
Both teams to score
- Yes66.6%1.50
- No33.4%3.00
- Yes and over 2.556.4%1.77
- Celje win and yes20.5%4.88
- Draw and yes19.6%5.09
- Red Bull Salzburg win and yes26.5%3.77
Team goals
- Celje over 0.578.9%1.27
- Celje over 1.546.1%2.17
- Celje over 2.520.6%4.86
- Red Bull Salzburg over 0.583.8%1.19
- Red Bull Salzburg over 1.554.3%1.84
- Red Bull Salzburg over 2.527.4%3.64
- Celje clean sheet16.2%6.16
- Red Bull Salzburg clean sheet21.1%4.74
- Celje win to nil12.3%8.14
- Red Bull Salzburg win to nil17.1%5.83
Handicap
- Celje −1.515.9%6.29
- Celje −2.56.2%16.24
- Red Bull Salzburg +1.584.1%1.19
- Red Bull Salzburg +2.593.8%1.07
- Red Bull Salzburg −1.523.9%4.19
- Celje +1.576.1%1.31
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored36
Favourite won66.7%
Avg chance given to result46.2%
1X2 Brier0.484
Over 2.5 called right63.9%
BTTS called right52.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 39.4% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 12 | 44.1% | 58.3% |
| 50–60% | 10 | 54.5% | 70.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.3% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 72.5% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 36 of 36 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4838 | 0.5043 |
| Avg chance given to result | 46.2% | 47.3% |
| Favourite won | 66.7% | 63.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 18 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 18 of 36 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.