Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg

UEFA Europa League Matchday 3 Thu, Oct 22 · 20:00 Stadion Z’dežele, Celje

Celje 35th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

VS— Compare

Red Bull Salzburg 21st · 3 pts · 2 played WL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Red Bull Salzburg are slight favourites.

Red Bull Salzburg are the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Celje. Celje have 7.1 days of rest, Red Bull Salzburg 7.1 and have to travel 245 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel245 kmRest days7.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Celje33%

Draw24%

Red Bull Salzburg44%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.82

Celje29%

Draw27%

Red Bull Salzburg44%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.51

Celje33%

Draw24%

Red Bull Salzburg44%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.82

Celje26%

Draw22%

Red Bull Salzburg52%

Expected goals 1.39 – 2.04

Celje33%

Draw25%

Red Bull Salzburg43%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.70

Over 2.5 66% Both score 67% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 2 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Celje)

8°CFog

Precipitation 43%
Wind 3 km/h
Humidity 91%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Celje 3 Losses in a row Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

Celje

Red Bull Salzburg

18 L90 StrengthIn forecast 39

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

17 AttackIn forecast 36

19 DefenceIn forecast 29

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Celje

Attack—

Defense risk—

Red Bull Salzburg

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Celje

Red Bull Salzburg

0.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

0.91 xGVia Att/Def —

2.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

-0.91 Goals minus xGContext —

0% Scored inContext 50%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

9.00 ShotsContext 13.00

2.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

28% On target shareContext 35%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

78% Box shareContext 59%

0% ConversionContext 4%

1.50 OffsidesContext —

15.50 Shots allowedContext 14.50

7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def —

2.50 BlocksContext 4.50

5.00 Goalkeeper savesContext —

71% Save rateContext 50%

53% PossessionIn forecast 53%

582 PassesContext 493

514 Accurate passesContext 430

88% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.47 Team ratingContext 6.64

9.50 FoulsContext 17.00

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

0.82 xGVia Att/Def 1.35

1.94 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.64

+0.28 Goals minus xGContext -0.15

70% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

9.83 ShotsContext 13.83

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.17

32% On target shareContext 30%

6.17 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

61% Box shareContext 63%

7% ConversionContext 5%

2.80 OffsidesContext 1.00

15.83 Shots allowedContext 11.00

6.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

4.00 BlocksContext 2.86

4.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

70% Save rateContext 56%

55% PossessionIn forecast 58%

566 PassesContext 449

492 Accurate passesContext 379

87% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.66 Team ratingContext 6.74

12.86 FoulsContext 10.33

11.57 Fouls sufferedContext 8.89

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Celje LL

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 28 · 0 pts vs 2.7 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected

L15 OctH · Omonia Nicosia0–31.4 xPts
L16 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–20.3 xPts

Red Bull Salzburg WL

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel245 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 51 · 3 pts vs 2.9 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected

L15 OctH · AC Milan0–41.3 xPts
W17 SepA · Levski Sofia1–01.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Celje	Red Bull Salzburg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct	7.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	245 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	14	13.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Celje Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs Omonia Nicosia (H) 0–3, 15 Oct

1Ž. Leban(G)

11M. Avdyli 6A. Tutyškinas 15Žan Žužek 44Ł. Bejger

14L. Tičić 19M. Zabukovnik 13P. Daniel 91Y. Dukuly

9B. Kramer 10S. Sešlar

Red Bull Salzburg Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs AC Milan (H) 0–4, 15 Oct

52C. Zawieschitzky(G)

31D. Schmid 47V. Zabransky 44K. Boma 39L. Morgalla

15B. Mazurek 32A. Barry

20E. Baidoo 8S. Kitano 35J. Lindstrøm

9H. Tabaković

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Celje No reported absences

Red Bull Salzburg No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Celje+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Red Bull Salzburg+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Celje · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 3.00

Red Bull Salzburg · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Celje	Red Bull Salzburg	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	0.50
Conceded per game	2.50	2.00
Match goals	2.50	2.50	3.38
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	66%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	67%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	100%	50%
Games	2	2

	Celje	Red Bull Salzburg	Forecast
Scored per game	1.13	1.50
Conceded per game	1.75	1.60
Match goals	2.88	3.10	3.38
Over 1.5	100%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	66%
Over 3.5	13%	50%
Both teams scored	63%	40%	67%
Clean sheets	13%	40%
Failed to score	25%	20%
Games	8	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Celje	Red Bull Salzburg	League
Corners
Corners won	2.50	3.50
Corners conceded	6.00	3.50
Match total	8.50	7.00	9.76
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	2.00	3.00
Opponent cards	1.00	1.50
Match total	3.00	4.50	3.76
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2

	Celje	Red Bull Salzburg	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	5.71
Corners conceded	7.33	4.00
Match total	12.33	9.71	9.76
Over 8.5	83% 5/6	57% 4/7
Over 9.5	67% 4/6	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	67% 4/6	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	2.70	1.00
Opponent cards	1.50	1.90
Match total	4.20	2.90	3.76
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.