Celta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Celta Vigo were slight favourites.
Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 41). Celta Vigo had 4.2 days of rest, Nice 5.2 and had to travel 1,309 km.
Away travel1,309 kmRest days4.2 · 5.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Celta Vigo51%
Draw25%
Nice24%
Celta Vigo50%
Draw26%
Nice24%
Celta Vigo51%
Draw25%
Nice24%
Celta Vigo44%
Draw26%
Nice30%
Celta Vigo51%
Draw26%
Nice24%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vigo)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 44
Team strength
Celta Vigo
Nice
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
54
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
36
AttackIn forecast
26
61
DefenceIn forecast
35
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Celta VigoNice
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
+0.62
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.50
ShotsContext
8.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
44%
On target shareContext
31%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
4.00
71%
Box shareContext
49%
17%
ConversionContext
13%
1.50
OffsidesContext
—
12.00
Shots allowedContext
14.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.50
BlocksContext
5.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
63%
Save rateContext
56%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
525
PassesContext
381
454
Accurate passesContext
300
87%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.63
11.00
FoulsContext
12.50
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
15.50
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
0.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
100%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.50
ShotsContext
10.90
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
33%
On target shareContext
36%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
6.78
63%
Box shareContext
58%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.29
11.70
Shots allowedContext
14.70
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.00
BlocksContext
4.80
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
80%
Save rateContext
65%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
513
PassesContext
412
443
Accurate passesContext
342
86%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.90
FoulsContext
12.00
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.80
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celta Vigo
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nice
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,309 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celta Vigo |
Nice |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.2La Liga 2025-2026, 19 Oct | 5.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,309 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 5 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.9 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
20Marcos Alonso
2C. Starfelt
12Manu Fernández
5Sergio Carreira
16Miguel Román
8Fran Beltrán
23Hugo Álvarez
15Bryan Zaragoza
18Pablo Durán
10Iago Aspas
Nice
Confirmed XI
80Y. Diouf(G)
26M. Bard
28A. Bah
37Kojo Peprah Oppong
2A. Abdi
99S. Abdul Samed
20T. Louchet
92J. Clauss
8M. Sanson
90Kevin Carlos
25M. Cho
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celta Vigo
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nice
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Celta Vigo+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Nice-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Celta Vigo · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Nice · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Celta Vigo | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Celta Vigo | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 70% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 80% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celta Vigo | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 7.50 | 8.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 0.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Celta Vigo | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 10.00 | 8.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.90 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 44 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.43league 4.09
Red cards0.25league 0.11
Cards 5+32%league 39%
Fouls22.9league 25.2
Penalties0.18league 0.36
Home wins45%league 45%
Celta VigoNo previous matches with this referee.
NiceNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Celta Vigo2 games · scored 4 · conceded 3
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Nice2 games · scored 2 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
2
4
0-15
3
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
Next fixtures UEFA Europa League
View all fixtures →
Lyon
FC Basel 1893
20
SC Braga
FK Crvena Zvezda
20
Brann
Rangers
30
GO Ahead Eagles
Aston Villa
21
FCSB
Bologna
12
Red Bull Salzburg
Ferencvarosi TC
23
Fenerbahce
VfB Stuttgart
10
Genk
Real Betis
00
Feyenoord
Panathinaikos
31
Nottingham Forest
FC Porto
20
Lille
PAOK
34
SC Freiburg
Utrecht
20
Celtic
Sturm Graz
21
Malmo FF
Dinamo Zagreb
11
AS Roma
Plzen
12
Celta Vigo
Nice
21
BSC Young Boys
Ludogorets
32
Maccabi Tel Aviv
FC Midtjylland
03