Celta Vigo vs PAOK – 26 Feb 2026

UEFA Europa League Knockout round play-offs Thu, Feb 26 · 20:00 Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo

Celta Vigo 6th · 3 pts · 1 played W

First leg2–1 1–0Full time

PAOK 13th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Celta Vigo were slight favourites.

Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 53). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Celta Vigo. Celta Vigo had 4.1 days of rest, PAOK 7.1 and had to travel 2,630 km.

Away travel2,630 kmRest days4.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d3 · 1

Celta Vigo60%

Draw24%

PAOK16%

Expected goals 1.82 – 0.84

Celta Vigo51%

Draw25%

PAOK24%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.07

Celta Vigo58%

Draw24%

PAOK18%

Expected goals 1.80 – 0.89

Celta Vigo53%

Draw26%

PAOK21%

Expected goals 1.62 – 0.94

Celta Vigo60%

Draw24%

PAOK16%

Expected goals 1.75 – 0.80

Over 2.5 50% Both score 48% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vigo)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMarco Guida

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 82

Team strength

Celta Vigo

PAOK

64 L90 StrengthIn forecast 53

54 Current StrengthIn forecast 52

36 AttackIn forecast 45

61 DefenceIn forecast 55

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

PAOK

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Celta Vigo

PAOK

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.50 xGVia Att/Def 1.49

0.69 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.91

+0.00 Goals minus xGContext +0.31

90% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 60%

11.10 ShotsContext 11.80

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

44% On target shareContext 39%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

61% Box shareContext 66%

14% ConversionContext 15%

2.71 OffsidesContext 2.50

9.20 Shots allowedContext 8.30

2.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.80

3.89 BlocksContext 2.86

1.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.11

64% Save rateContext 70%

50% PossessionIn forecast 55%

456 PassesContext 461

389 Accurate passesContext 389

86% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.98

11.60 FoulsContext 11.40

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Celta Vigo

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km7,061 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

PAOK

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel2,630 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Celta Vigo	PAOK
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 25	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.1La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Feb	7.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout play-offs, 19 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,630 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	7,061 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 6	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	3	160.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

13I. Radu(G)

20Marcos Alonso 2C. Starfelt 32Javi Rodríguez

5Sergio Carreira 6I. Moriba 15M. Vecino 17Javi Rueda

19W. Swedberg 10Iago Aspas

7Borja Iglesias

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

PAOK Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

99A. Tsiftsis(G)

21A. Baba 5G. Michailidis 16T. Kędziora 3J. Kenny

20C. Zafeiris 27M. Ozdoev

52D. Chatsidis 22A. Bianco 35J. Sánchez

7G. Giakoumakis

+12 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Celta Vigo Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

PAOK Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Celta Vigo+1.7 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
PAOK-1.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Celta Vigo · Home No home games yet this season.

PAOK · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 Celta Vigo wins0 draws0 PAOK wins

Goals per game2.50 – 1.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

19 Feb 2026PAOK1–2Celta Vigo
2 Oct 2025Celta Vigo3–1PAOK

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Celta Vigo	PAOK	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	2.00
Match goals	3.00	3.00	2.66
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	50%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	48%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Celta Vigo	PAOK	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	2.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.78
Match goals	2.50	3.78	2.66
Over 1.5	80%	89%
Over 2.5	60%	67%	50%
Over 3.5	20%	56%
Both teams scored	60%	67%	48%
Clean sheets	40%	33%
Failed to score	10%	11%
Games	10	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Celta Vigo	PAOK	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	3.00
Corners conceded	3.00	3.00
Match total	6.00	6.00	10.55
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.00
Opponent cards	1.00	2.00
Match total	3.00	3.00	4.00
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Celta Vigo	PAOK	League
Corners
Corners won	4.10	5.22
Corners conceded	4.10	3.89
Match total	8.20	9.11	10.55
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.80
Opponent cards	2.40	2.60
Match total	4.50	4.40	4.00
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marco Guida Italy · 82 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.96league 4.00

Red cards0.12league 0.08

Cards 5+39%league 42%

Fouls24.0league 23.3

Penalties0.35league 0.00

Home wins43%league 17%

Celta Vigo

No previous matches with this referee.

PAOK

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.