UEFA Europa League Quarter-finals Thu, Apr 16 · 17:45 Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo
Celta Vigo 8th · 4 pts · 3 played
First leg0–3 1–3Full time
SC Freiburg 3rd · 6 pts · 3 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards SC Freiburg. Celta Vigo had 4 days of rest, SC Freiburg 4 and had to travel 1,446 km.

Away travel1,446 kmRest days4 · 4Matches / 14d3 · 3
Celta Vigo36%
Draw28%
SC Freiburg36%
Expected goals 1.28 – 1.28
Celta Vigo43%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg30%
Expected goals 1.50 – 1.20
Celta Vigo35%
Draw28%
SC Freiburg37%
Expected goals 1.25 – 1.28
Celta Vigo29%
Draw28%
SC Freiburg43%
Expected goals 1.14 – 1.43
Celta Vigo36%
Draw28%
SC Freiburg36%
Expected goals 1.26 – 1.26
Over 2.5 47% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vigo)

No weather data yet

RefereeAnthony Taylor
  • Cards per match 3.9
  • Penalties per match 0.24
  • Matches 200

Team strength

Celta VigoSC Freiburg
60 L90 StrengthIn forecast 60
54 Current StrengthIn forecast 64
36 AttackIn forecast 63
61 DefenceIn forecast 73
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Celta Vigo

Attack—
Defense risk—

SC Freiburg

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Celta VigoSC Freiburg
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.67
1.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.67
1.03 xGVia Att/Def 1.15
0.86 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.83
-0.03 Goals minus xGContext +1.52
67% Scored inContext 67%
33% Clean sheetsContext 33%
7.67 ShotsContext 9.33
5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67
48% On target shareContext 50%
4.67 Shots in the boxContext 6.33
58% Box shareContext 70%
13% ConversionContext 29%
2.00 OffsidesContext 1.67
12.00 Shots allowedContext 11.33
4.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00
5.00 BlocksContext 4.00
3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00
71% Save rateContext 67%
47% PossessionIn forecast 49%
439 PassesContext 428
374 Accurate passesContext 357
85% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.63 Team ratingContext 7.25
14.33 FoulsContext 10.00
10.67 Fouls sufferedContext 11.33
3.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.33
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
0.97 xGVia Att/Def 1.35
1.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01
+0.43 Goals minus xGContext +0.45
80% Scored inContext 70%
20% Clean sheetsContext 20%
8.60 ShotsContext 11.60
4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
49% On target shareContext 43%
5.70 Shots in the boxContext 8.22
65% Box shareContext 68%
16% ConversionContext 16%
2.50 OffsidesContext 2.20
12.00 Shots allowedContext 12.60
4.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33
3.56 BlocksContext 3.80
3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
64% Save rateContext 69%
51% PossessionIn forecast 47%
493 PassesContext 398
428 Accurate passesContext 332
87% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.75 Team ratingContext 6.97
12.10 FoulsContext 8.90
11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60
2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Celta Vigo
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km4,423 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
SC Freiburg
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel1,446 km446 km in 14d
Schedule load27%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Celta Vigo SC Freiburg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 25Moderate · 27
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4La Liga 2025-2026, 12 Apr4Bundesliga 2025-2026, 12 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,446 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways4,423 km446 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 3 / 52 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one6.12.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI
4-1-4-1
13I. Radu(G)
3Óscar Mingueza 20Marcos Alonso 29Yoel Lago 32Javi Rodríguez
15M. Vecino
9Ferran Jutglà 6I. Moriba 30Fer López 17Javi Rueda
7Borja Iglesias
+4 more reported missing outside this XI
SC Freiburg Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1N. Atubolu(G)
33J. Makengo 3P. Lienhart 28M. Ginter 29P. Treu
44J. Manzambi 8M. Eggestein
32V. Grifo 14Y. Suzuki 19J. Beste
31I. Matanović
+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Celta Vigo Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Freiburg Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Celta Vigo+0.8 pp
  • Draw-0.2 pp
  • SC Freiburg-0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Celta Vigo · Home 1.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-1-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.00
SC Freiburg · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Celta Vigo wins0 draws1 SC Freiburg wins
Goals per game0.00 – 3.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%
  • 9 Apr 2026SC Freiburg3–0Celta Vigo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Celta VigoSC FreiburgForecast
Scored per game 1.002.67
Conceded per game 1.330.67
Match goals 2.333.33 2.56
Over 1.5 100%67%
Over 2.5 33%67% 47%
Over 3.5 0%33%
Both teams scored 33%33% 53%
Clean sheets 33%33%
Failed to score 33%33%
Games33
Celta VigoSC FreiburgForecast
Scored per game 1.401.80
Conceded per game 1.701.30
Match goals 3.103.10 2.56
Over 1.5 90%70%
Over 2.5 60%60% 47%
Over 3.5 20%30%
Both teams scored 60%50% 53%
Clean sheets 20%20%
Failed to score 20%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Celta VigoSC FreiburgLeague
Corners
Corners won—4.50
Corners conceded—5.00
Match total—9.508.76
Over 8.5—50% 1/2
Over 9.5—50% 1/2
Over 10.5—50% 1/2
Cards
Cards3.332.33
Opponent cards2.001.00
Match total5.333.334.47
Over 3.567% 2/333% 1/3
Over 4.567% 2/333% 1/3
Celta VigoSC FreiburgLeague
Corners
Corners won4.174.22
Corners conceded3.834.22
Match total8.008.448.76
Over 8.517% 1/644% 4/9
Over 9.517% 1/644% 4/9
Over 10.517% 1/622% 2/9
Cards
Cards2.302.00
Opponent cards1.701.50
Match total4.003.504.47
Over 3.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Over 4.530% 3/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Anthony Taylor 200 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.79league 4.30
Red cards0.15league 0.30
Cards 5+37%league 55%
Fouls21.1league 25.6
Penalties0.24league 0.20
Home wins36%league 45%
Celta Vigo

No previous matches with this referee.

SC Freiburg

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Celta Vigo3 games · scored 3 · conceded 4
1 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
46-60
1 61-75
1 2 76-90
SC Freiburg3 games · scored 8 · conceded 2
1 0-15
2 1 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 46-60
61-75
2 76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
1 4 0-15
4 16-30
1 4 31-45
3 3 46-60
3 1 61-75
2 5 76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
1 0-15
2 2 16-30
4 3 31-45
4 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
4 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures UEFA Europa League

View all fixtures →
SC Braga Real Betis 11 SC Freiburg Celta Vigo 30 FC Porto Nottingham Forest 11 Bologna Aston Villa 13 Celta Vigo SC Freiburg 13 Nottingham Forest FC Porto 10 Aston Villa Bologna 40 Real Betis SC Braga 24