Celtic
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Celtic56.9%fair odds 1.76
Draw22.8%fair odds 4.38
Sturm Graz20.3%fair odds 4.92
Expected goals1.96 – 1.10total 3.06
Likeliest score1–110.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Sturm Graz
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Celtic ↓ · Sturm Graz → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Celtic goals, columns Sturm Graz goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.6%9.40
- 2–19.9%10.09
- 2–09.0%11.08
- 1–08.7%11.54
- 3–16.5%15.44
- 3–05.9%16.96
- 1–25.5%18.02
- 2–25.4%18.38
- 0–05.2%19.12
- 0–14.6%21.65
Winning margin
16.5%
Celtic by 3+
fair 6.06
17.5%
Celtic by 2
fair 5.71
22.8%
Celtic by 1
fair 4.38
22.8%
Draw
fair 4.38
12.6%
Sturm Graz by 1
fair 7.96
5.5%
Sturm Graz by 2
fair 18.20
2.3%
Sturm Graz by 3+
fair 44.11
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Celtic goals
14%0
28%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+
Sturm Graz goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 56.9% | 54.1% | +2.8 pp |
| Draw | 22.8% | 24.6% | -1.8 pp |
| Sturm Graz win | 20.3% | 21.3% | -1.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.0% | 52.8% | +6.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.8% | 53.8% | +4.0 pp |
| Expected goals Celtic | 1.96 | 1.76 | +0.20 |
| Expected goals Sturm Graz | 1.10 | 1.03 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Celtic win56.9%1.76
- Draw22.8%4.38
- Sturm Graz win20.3%4.92
- Double chance Celtic or draw79.7%1.26
- Double chance Celtic or Sturm Graz77.2%1.30
- Double chance Sturm Graz or draw43.1%2.32
- Draw no bet Celtic73.7%1.36
- Draw no bet Sturm Graz26.3%3.80
Goals
- Over 0.594.8%1.06
- Over 1.581.5%1.23
- Over 2.559.0%1.70
- Over 3.536.6%2.73
- Over 4.519.5%5.14
- Under 1.518.5%5.40
- Under 2.541.0%2.44
- Under 3.563.4%1.58
Both teams to score
- Yes57.8%1.73
- No42.2%2.37
- Yes and over 2.547.2%2.12
- Celtic win and yes28.8%3.48
- Draw and yes17.6%5.69
- Sturm Graz win and yes11.5%8.72
Team goals
- Celtic over 0.585.9%1.16
- Celtic over 1.558.3%1.71
- Celtic over 2.531.3%3.20
- Sturm Graz over 0.566.6%1.50
- Sturm Graz over 1.530.0%3.33
- Sturm Graz over 2.59.9%10.08
- Celtic clean sheet33.4%3.00
- Sturm Graz clean sheet14.1%7.10
- Celtic win to nil28.1%3.56
- Sturm Graz win to nil8.8%11.30
Handicap
- Celtic −1.534.0%2.94
- Celtic −2.516.5%6.06
- Sturm Graz +1.566.0%1.52
- Sturm Graz +2.583.5%1.20
- Sturm Graz −1.57.8%12.88
- Celtic +1.592.2%1.08
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored44
Favourite won52.3%
Avg chance given to result39.0%
1X2 Brier0.602
Over 2.5 called right45.5%
BTTS called right47.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 5 | 38.8% | 60.0% |
| 40–50% | 21 | 44.3% | 38.1% |
| 50–60% | 14 | 54.5% | 71.4% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 65.7% | 33.3% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 26 of 44 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6081 | 0.6224 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.8% | 38.6% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 57.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 26 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 44 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.