Celtic
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Celtic were slight favourites.
Celtic were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 37). Celtic usually keep the ball (69% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Celtic had 21.1 days of rest, Sturm Graz 21 and had to travel 1,669 km.
Away travel1,669 kmRest days21.1 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0
Celtic57%
Draw23%
Sturm Graz20%
Celtic54%
Draw25%
Sturm Graz22%
Celtic56%
Draw23%
Sturm Graz21%
Celtic49%
Draw25%
Sturm Graz26%
Celtic54%
Draw25%
Sturm Graz21%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Glasgow)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJuan Martinez Munuera
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.43
- Matches 28
Team strength
Celtic
Sturm Graz
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
74
AttackIn forecast
32
50
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSturm Graz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CelticSturm Graz
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.67
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
50%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.50
ShotsContext
13.50
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
53%
On target shareContext
44%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
83%
Box shareContext
79%
6%
ConversionContext
7%
1.50
OffsidesContext
—
14.50
Shots allowedContext
11.00
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.50
4.00
BlocksContext
—
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
7.00
70%
Save rateContext
93%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
529
PassesContext
331
460
Accurate passesContext
245
87%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.00
FoulsContext
17.50
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
40%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.90
ShotsContext
14.60
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
35%
On target shareContext
36%
9.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.80
63%
Box shareContext
69%
6%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.86
9.00
Shots allowedContext
12.20
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
2.60
BlocksContext
3.00
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
67%
Save rateContext
75%
69%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
650
PassesContext
390
570
Accurate passesContext
303
88%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.83
15.00
FoulsContext
13.60
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celtic
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sturm Graz
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,669 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celtic |
Sturm Graz |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct | 21UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,669 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 13.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celtic
Confirmed XI
1K. Schmeichel(G)
63K. Tierney
5L. Scales
20C. Carter-Vickers
2A. Johnston
41R. Hatate
42C. McGregor
8E. Nygren
23S. Tounekti
17K. Ịheanachọ
27A. Engels
Sturm Graz
Confirmed XI
40M. Bignetti(G)
17E. Karić
24D. Lavalée
47E. Aiwu
5T. Oermann
21T. Chukwuani
4J. Gorenc Stankovič
8Filip Rózga
10O. Kiteishvili
19T. Horvat
77M. Malone
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celtic
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sturm Graz
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Celtic+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Sturm Graz-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Celtic · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Sturm Graz · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Celtic | Sturm Graz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.50 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Celtic | Sturm Graz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.50 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celtic | Sturm Graz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 8.50 | 8.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Celtic | Sturm Graz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.78 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 12.56 | 9.22 | 8.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 9/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 78% 7/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Martinez Munuera Spain · 28 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.39league 4.09
Red cards0.21league 0.11
Cards 5+43%league 39%
Fouls25.6league 25.2
Penalties0.43league 0.36
Home wins54%league 45%
CelticNo previous matches with this referee.
Sturm GrazNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Celtic2 games · scored 1 · conceded 3
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Sturm Graz2 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
1
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Celtic10 games · scored 9 · conceded 8
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Sturm Graz10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
2
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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