Celtic
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Celtic were slight favourites.
Celtic were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 28). Celtic usually keep the ball (62% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Celtic had 7.1 days of rest, Utrecht 4.2 and had to travel 742 km.
Away travel742 kmRest days7.1 · 4.2Matches / 14d1 · 3
Celtic57%
Draw23%
Utrecht20%
Celtic56%
Draw24%
Utrecht20%
Celtic58%
Draw23%
Utrecht20%
Celtic50%
Draw25%
Utrecht26%
Celtic55%
Draw24%
Utrecht21%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Glasgow)
No weather data yet
Referee · FinlandMohammad Al-Emara
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.53
- Matches 15
Team strength
Celtic
Utrecht
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
74
AttackIn forecast
32
50
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUtrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CelticUtrecht
1.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.43
1.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.57
1.67
xGVia Att/Def
0.79
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
-0.38
Goals minus xGContext
-0.36
71%
Scored inContext
43%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.14
ShotsContext
9.43
4.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.14
45%
On target shareContext
33%
7.17
Shots in the boxContext
5.29
71%
Box shareContext
52%
14%
ConversionContext
5%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.83
16.86
Shots allowedContext
14.71
5.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.14
5.00
BlocksContext
3.71
4.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.43
70%
Save rateContext
72%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
463
PassesContext
362
388
Accurate passesContext
291
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.69
11.71
FoulsContext
12.71
10.57
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
1.57
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
—
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
—
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.40
ShotsContext
13.40
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
33%
On target shareContext
31%
10.44
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
71%
Box shareContext
59%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
1.89
OffsidesContext
1.86
13.20
Shots allowedContext
12.70
5.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
4.40
BlocksContext
3.33
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
66%
Save rateContext
65%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
541
PassesContext
395
463
Accurate passesContext
320
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.76
11.00
FoulsContext
10.50
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celtic
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km3,350 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Utrecht
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel742 km90 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celtic |
Utrecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan | 4.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 742 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,350 km | 90 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 2 / 3 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21 | 2.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celtic
Confirmed XI
1K. Schmeichel(G)
63K. Tierney
5L. Scales
6A. Trusty
51C. Donovan
27A. Engels
42C. McGregor
8E. Nygren
23S. Tounekti
38D. Maeda
13H. Yang
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
55D. Murkin
24N. Viergever
3M. van der Hoorn
23N. Vesterlund
21G. Zechiël
27A. Engwanda
15A. Blake
20D. de Wit
10Y. Cathline
22Miguel Rodríguez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celtic
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Utrecht
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Celtic-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Utrecht+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Celtic · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 2.00
Utrecht · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Celtic | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 0.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.86 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 3.14 | 2.00 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 29% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 43% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 57% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Celtic | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.86 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.14 | 2.50 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 50% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 80% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 20% | |
| Games | 7 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celtic | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.57 | 3.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.43 | 4.57 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 7.86 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 2.14 | |
| Match total | 3.71 | 3.85 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Celtic | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 9.11 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.80 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mohammad Al-Emara Finland · 15 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.47league 4.13
Red cards0.20league 0.21
Cards 5+33%league 42%
Fouls22.4league 24.2
Penalties0.53league 0.36
Home wins40%league 51%
CelticNo previous matches with this referee.
UtrechtNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Celtic7 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Utrecht7 games · scored 3 · conceded 11
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
76-90
Celtic10 games · scored 18 · conceded 17
5
4
0-15
2
16-30
6
2
31-45
6
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
1
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
5
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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