Cercle Brugge
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Cercle Brugge
14th · 27 pts · 26 played
DLWLW
First leg0–0
0–0Full time
Dender
16th · 17 pts · 26 played
DLLLL
Cercle Brugge51.8%fair odds 1.93
Draw25.1%fair odds 3.98
Dender23.1%fair odds 4.33
Expected goals1.71 – 1.07total 2.78
Likeliest score1–112.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Dender
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Cercle Brugge ↓ · Dender → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Cercle Brugge goals, columns Dender goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%8.36
- 1–010.0%9.97
- 2–19.7%10.30
- 2–09.1%11.01
- 0–06.8%14.67
- 1–26.1%16.49
- 0–16.0%16.56
- 3–15.5%18.08
- 2–25.2%19.29
- 3–05.2%19.31
Winning margin
12.6%
Cercle Brugge by 3+
fair 7.96
16.0%
Cercle Brugge by 2
fair 6.23
23.2%
Cercle Brugge by 1
fair 4.31
25.1%
Draw
fair 3.98
14.3%
Dender by 1
fair 7.01
6.3%
Dender by 2
fair 15.96
2.6%
Dender by 3+
fair 39.15
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Cercle Brugge goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
Dender goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cercle Brugge win | 51.8% | 52.5% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 25.1% | 24.6% | +0.6 pp |
| Dender win | 23.1% | 22.9% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.5% | 54.7% | -2.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.4% | 55.9% | -1.5 pp |
| Expected goals Cercle Brugge | 1.71 | 1.77 | -0.06 |
| Expected goals Dender | 1.07 | 1.10 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Cercle Brugge win51.8%1.93
- Draw25.1%3.98
- Dender win23.1%4.33
- Double chance Cercle Brugge or draw76.9%1.30
- Double chance Cercle Brugge or Dender74.9%1.34
- Double chance Dender or draw48.2%2.07
- Draw no bet Cercle Brugge69.2%1.45
- Draw no bet Dender30.8%3.24
Goals
- Over 0.593.2%1.07
- Over 1.577.1%1.30
- Over 2.552.5%1.90
- Over 3.530.3%3.30
- Over 4.514.9%6.72
- Under 1.522.9%4.37
- Under 2.547.5%2.11
- Under 3.569.7%1.44
Both teams to score
- Yes54.4%1.84
- No45.6%2.19
- Yes and over 2.542.4%2.36
- Cercle Brugge win and yes24.2%4.13
- Draw and yes18.3%5.46
- Dender win and yes11.8%8.47
Team goals
- Cercle Brugge over 0.581.9%1.22
- Cercle Brugge over 1.551.0%1.96
- Cercle Brugge over 2.524.5%4.08
- Dender over 0.565.6%1.52
- Dender over 1.528.9%3.46
- Dender over 2.59.3%10.72
- Cercle Brugge clean sheet34.4%2.91
- Dender clean sheet18.1%5.53
- Cercle Brugge win to nil27.5%3.63
- Dender win to nil11.3%8.87
Handicap
- Cercle Brugge −1.528.6%3.50
- Cercle Brugge −2.512.6%7.96
- Dender +1.571.4%1.40
- Dender +2.587.4%1.14
- Dender −1.58.8%11.34
- Cercle Brugge +1.591.2%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored215
Favourite won44.2%
Avg chance given to result37.5%
1X2 Brier0.631
Over 2.5 called right53.5%
BTTS called right50.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 40 | 38.0% | 35.0% |
| 40–50% | 97 | 44.8% | 36.1% |
| 50–60% | 53 | 54.7% | 54.7% |
| 60–70% | 21 | 64.6% | 71.4% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.5% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 171 of 215 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6427 | 0.6302 |
| Avg chance given to result | 37.1% | 38.0% |
| Favourite won | 42.7% | 43.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 171 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 215 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.