Cercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Cercle Brugge
14th · 27 pts · 26 played
DLWLW
First leg0–0
0–0Full time
Dender
16th · 17 pts · 26 played
DLLLL
Our take
Cercle Brugge were slight favourites.
Cercle Brugge were the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 18). Cercle Brugge had 8.9 days of rest, Dender 8.1 and had to travel 70 km.
Away travel70 kmRest days8.9 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Cercle Brugge52%
Draw25%
Dender23%
Cercle Brugge52%
Draw25%
Dender23%
Cercle Brugge52%
Draw25%
Dender23%
Cercle Brugge44%
Draw27%
Dender29%
Cercle Brugge52%
Draw25%
Dender23%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)
No weather data yet
RefereeNathan Verboomen
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 38
Team strength
Cercle BruggeDender
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
24
AttackIn forecast
15
28
DefenceIn forecast
15
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisDender
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Cercle BruggeDender
1.31
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.81
1.54
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.69
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
77%
Scored inContext
62%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
15%
12.35
ShotsContext
10.35
4.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.62
31%
On target shareContext
35%
9.04
Shots in the boxContext
7.38
71%
Box shareContext
71%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
2.83
OffsidesContext
2.23
13.69
Shots allowedContext
14.00
4.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
3.44
BlocksContext
3.63
3.35
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.04
69%
Save rateContext
65%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
352
PassesContext
381
266
Accurate passesContext
290
76%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.73
10.62
FoulsContext
10.77
12.62
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.96
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
-0.47
90%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.60
ShotsContext
11.80
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
33%
On target shareContext
36%
8.22
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
67%
Box shareContext
76%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
2.78
OffsidesContext
2.13
14.40
Shots allowedContext
13.60
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.89
3.90
BlocksContext
3.75
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
73%
Save rateContext
65%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
309
PassesContext
375
222
Accurate passesContext
283
72%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.40
FoulsContext
10.80
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cercle Brugge
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km77 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Dender
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel70 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cercle Brugge |
Dender |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 20 Feb | 8.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 21 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 70 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 77 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
1Warleson(G)
12Valy Konaté
66C. Ravych
5Emmanuel Kakou
15G. Magnée
18P. Gerkens
28H. Van der Bruggen
19Makaya Ibrahima Diaby
6L. Agyekum
13D. Vanzeir
10O. Diakité
Dender
Confirmed XI
93G. Gallon(G)
88F. Ferraro
7B. Goncalves
44L. De Fougerolles
5L. Marijnissen
27A. Jahanbakhsh
17N. Mbamba
18N. Rôdes
70M. Sambu
9David Toševski
16R. Květ
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
Dender
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Dender+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Cercle Brugge · Home
0.54points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-8
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 2.15
Dender · Away
0.77points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-7
- Scored
- 0.92
- Conceded
- 1.62
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Cercle Brugge | Dender |
|---|---|---|
| Gent | W 1–0 AL 2–4 H | L 0–3 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A | L 1–5 HL 1–2 A |
| Charleroi | W 4–3 AL 2–3 H | L 1–3 A |
| Antwerp | L 0–4 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Genk | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| KVC Westerlo | W 2–0 AW 4–1 H | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| OH Leuven | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H | L 2–3 AL 0–1 H |
| KV Mechelen | L 2–3 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Standard Liege | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Zulte Waregem | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H |
| St. Truiden | D 1–1 H | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A |
| Anderlecht | L 0–2 H | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Points | 26 of 75 · 1.04 per game | 16 of 75 · 0.64 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Cercle Brugge wins1 draws0 Dender wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 100%
- 26 Jul 2025Dender0–0Cercle Brugge
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cercle Brugge | Dender | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.31 | 0.81 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.54 | 1.69 | |
| Match goals | 2.85 | 2.50 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 58% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 15% | |
| Failed to score | 23% | 38% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Cercle Brugge | Dender | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.70 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cercle Brugge | Dender | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.24 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 8.80 | 9.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 14/25 | 52% 13/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 12/25 | 40% 10/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 12/25 | 20% 5/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.12 | 2.15 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.77 | 1.31 | |
| Match total | 3.89 | 3.46 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 54% 14/26 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 31% 8/26 | 35% 9/26 | |
| Cercle Brugge | Dender | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 5.78 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 10.22 | 9.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 0.90 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nathan Verboomen 38 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.71league 3.87
Red cards0.24league 0.20
Cards 5+53%league 41%
Fouls22.3league 22.7
Penalties0.13league 0.31
Home wins50%league 41%
Cercle Brugge5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D25 Jan 26A · Genk1–10
- D4 Oct 25A · Antwerp1–11
- W25 Feb 24A · AS Eupen2–03
- L9 Dec 23H · Antwerp1–34
- W2 Sep 23H · KVC Westerlo2–10
Dender1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W5 Dec 25A · RAAL La Louvière2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cercle Brugge26 games · scored 34 · conceded 40
4
3
0-15
4
8
16-30
13
10
31-45
3
10
46-60
4
4
61-75
6
5
76-90
Dender26 games · scored 21 · conceded 44
6
7
0-15
1
5
16-30
2
5
31-45
4
6
46-60
2
10
61-75
6
11
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
6
31-45
1
6
46-60
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Dender10 games · scored 9 · conceded 18
3
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
