Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Fri, Dec 26 · 15:00 Jan Breydelstadion, Brugge
Cercle Brugge 15th · 16 pts · 19 played
First leg0–2 1–1Full time
Union St. Gilloise 1st · 41 pts · 19 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Union St. Gilloise were slight favourites.

Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 23). Cercle Brugge had 4.9 days of rest, Union St. Gilloise 5.8 and had to travel 88 km.

Away travel88 kmRest days4.9 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Cercle Brugge24%
Draw26%
Union St. Gilloise51%
Expected goals 1.07 – 1.66
Cercle Brugge24%
Draw26%
Union St. Gilloise51%
Expected goals 1.07 – 1.67
Cercle Brugge24%
Draw26%
Union St. Gilloise51%
Expected goals 1.07 – 1.66
Cercle Brugge18%
Draw24%
Union St. Gilloise58%
Expected goals 0.96 – 1.86
Cercle Brugge24%
Draw26%
Union St. Gilloise51%
Expected goals 1.07 – 1.67
Over 2.5 51% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)

No weather data yet

RefereeLothar D'hondt
  • Cards per match 4.1
  • Penalties per match 0.31
  • Matches 35

Team strength

Cercle BruggeUnion St. Gilloise
23 L90 StrengthIn forecast 57
21 Current StrengthIn forecast 66
24 AttackIn forecast 62
28 DefenceIn forecast 74
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Cercle Brugge

Attack—
Defense risk—

Union St. Gilloise

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Cercle BruggeUnion St. Gilloise
1.26 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.84
1.53 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.58
1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.77
1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.70
-0.09 Goals minus xGContext +0.07
74% Scored inContext 84%
21% Clean sheetsContext 47%
12.89 ShotsContext 14.63
4.28 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.58
31% On target shareContext 38%
9.68 Shots in the boxContext 11.88
75% Box shareContext 76%
10% ConversionContext 13%
2.83 OffsidesContext 3.13
13.26 Shots allowedContext 8.63
4.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.13
3.50 BlocksContext 2.53
3.05 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.53
66% Save rateContext 78%
51% PossessionIn forecast 54%
378 PassesContext 432
291 Accurate passesContext 353
77% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.88 Team ratingContext 7.00
10.84 FoulsContext 12.11
13.21 Fouls sufferedContext 8.68
1.89 Yellow cardsContext 2.05
0.05 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 19 and 19 games
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10
1.33 xGVia Att/Def 1.33
1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96
-0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.17
90% Scored inContext 90%
10% Clean sheetsContext 30%
13.10 ShotsContext 12.50
4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40
30% On target shareContext 35%
10.10 Shots in the boxContext 10.63
77% Box shareContext 73%
9% ConversionContext 12%
3.50 OffsidesContext 3.86
13.10 Shots allowedContext 9.00
4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.25
3.80 BlocksContext 2.70
3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.14
67% Save rateContext 60%
54% PossessionIn forecast 49%
399 PassesContext 414
312 Accurate passesContext 338
78% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.87 Team ratingContext 6.91
11.00 FoulsContext 12.30
14.80 Fouls sufferedContext 8.60
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Cercle Brugge
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km220 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Union St. Gilloise
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel88 km99 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Cercle Brugge Union St. Gilloise
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 21 Dec5.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 20 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km88 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways220 km99 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one22.122.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Cercle Brugge Confirmed XI
4-1-3-2
1Warleson(G)
20Flávio Nazinho 3E. Utkus 66C. Ravych 2I. Diakité
28H. Van der Bruggen
6L. Agyekum 18P. Gerkens 15G. Magnée
9S. Ngoura 17O. Adewumi
Union St. Gilloise Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
37K. Scherpen(G)
48F. Leysen 16C. Burgess 26R. Sykes
11G. da Silva Carvalho 4M. Rasmussen 6K. Van de Perre 25A. Khalaili
10A. Ait El Hadj 20M. Giger
12P. David

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Cercle Brugge Absences are shown before kick-off
Union St. Gilloise Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Cercle Brugge · Home 0.60points per game · 10 home games
W-D-L
1-3-6
Scored
1.60
Conceded
2.10
Union St. Gilloise · Away 1.60points per game · 10 away games
W-D-L
4-4-2
Scored
1.30
Conceded
0.90

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

OpponentCercle BruggeUnion St. Gilloise
OH Leuven W 2–0 AL 1–2 H W 5–0 H
KV Mechelen L 2–3 HD 0–0 A D 1–1 A
Standard Liege L 1–2 HW 3–0 A W 3–0 H
Zulte Waregem D 1–1 AD 1–1 H W 2–0 HW 4–1 A
RAAL La Louvière L 1–2 A D 0–0 A
Genk D 2–2 H W 2–1 A
Antwerp D 1–1 A D 1–1 A
Gent L 2–4 H D 1–1 HW 3–2 A
Charleroi L 2–3 H D 1–1 AW 3–1 H
St. Truiden D 1–1 H W 2–0 H
KVC Westerlo W 4–1 H W 2–0 H
Club Brugge KV L 0–2 A L 0–1 A
Anderlecht L 0–2 H L 0–1 AW 2–0 H
Dender D 0–0 A W 1–0 A
Points16 of 54 · 0.89 per game38 of 54 · 2.11 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 Cercle Brugge wins0 draws3 Union St. Gilloise wins
Goals per game0.33 – 2.00 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets0% · 67%
  • 22 Nov 2025Union St. Gilloise2–0Cercle Brugge
  • 3 Dec 2023Union St. Gilloise2–1Cercle Brugge
  • 24 Sep 2023Cercle Brugge0–2Union St. Gilloise

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Cercle BruggeUnion St. GilloiseForecast
Scored per game 1.261.84
Conceded per game 1.530.58
Match goals 2.792.42 2.73
Over 1.5 89%79%
Over 2.5 47%32% 51%
Over 3.5 26%21%
Both teams scored 63%42% 54%
Clean sheets 21%47%
Failed to score 26%16%
Games1919
Cercle BruggeUnion St. GilloiseForecast
Scored per game 1.201.60
Conceded per game 1.600.70
Match goals 2.802.30 2.73
Over 1.5 100%80%
Over 2.5 50%20% 51%
Over 3.5 20%20%
Both teams scored 80%50% 54%
Clean sheets 10%30%
Failed to score 10%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Cercle BruggeUnion St. GilloiseLeague
Corners
Corners won4.945.33
Corners conceded5.283.83
Match total10.229.169.63
Over 8.561% 11/1856% 10/18
Over 9.556% 10/1850% 9/18
Over 10.556% 10/1839% 7/18
Cards
Cards1.952.05
Opponent cards1.682.16
Match total3.634.214.01
Over 3.547% 9/1958% 11/19
Over 4.526% 5/1958% 11/19
Cercle BruggeUnion St. GilloiseLeague
Corners
Corners won5.444.22
Corners conceded5.223.78
Match total10.668.009.63
Over 8.567% 6/944% 4/9
Over 9.556% 5/911% 1/9
Over 10.556% 5/911% 1/9
Cards
Cards1.802.40
Opponent cards1.902.10
Match total3.704.504.01
Over 3.540% 4/1070% 7/10
Over 4.530% 3/1060% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Lothar D'hondt 35 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.83league 3.79
Red cards0.31league 0.18
Cards 5+37%league 41%
Fouls25.1league 22.8
Penalties0.31league 0.29
Home wins43%league 41%
Cercle Brugge5 with this referee
Record2-1-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.6 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds3
  • L9 Aug 25A · Club Brugge KV0–24
  • D9 Mar 24A · Charleroi0–02
  • W11 Feb 24A · Gent2–13
  • L27 Dec 23A · Anderlecht0–21
  • W5 Aug 23H · Charleroi2–00
Union St. Gilloise3 with this referee
Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 2
  • W1 Nov 25A · Zulte Waregem4–14
  • D26 Nov 23A · Gent1–13
  • W20 Oct 23H · AS Eupen4–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Cercle Brugge19 games · scored 24 · conceded 29
2 3 0-15
3 5 16-30
9 8 31-45
3 5 46-60
2 4 61-75
5 4 76-90
Union St. Gilloise19 games · scored 35 · conceded 11
4 2 0-15
3 16-30
5 2 31-45
5 2 46-60
8 61-75
10 5 76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
1 1 0-15
1 4 16-30
3 5 31-45
2 3 46-60
2 1 61-75
3 2 76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
1 3 0-15
16-30
5 2 31-45
2 2 46-60
2 1 61-75
5 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Genk Club Brugge KV 35 Cercle Brugge Union St. Gilloise 11 Standard Liege St. Truiden 12 Anderlecht Charleroi 12 Antwerp Zulte Waregem 21 RAAL La Louvière OH Leuven 00 KV Mechelen Dender 11 Gent KVC Westerlo 20