Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Mar 13 · 16:00 Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi
Charleroi 3rd · 21 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Club Brugge KV 2nd · 21 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel123 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Charleroi—%
Draw—%
Club Brugge KV—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Charleroi)

Forecast from 26 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Charleroi and Club Brugge KV. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

CharleroiClub Brugge KV
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
38 Current StrengthIn forecast 75
43 AttackIn forecast 86
50 DefenceIn forecast 58
80 Form indexContext 86
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Charleroi

Attack—
Defense risk—

Club Brugge KV

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

CharleroiClub Brugge KV
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.38
0.88 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50
1.86 xGVia Att/Def 2.55
0.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.00
+0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.17
100% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 63%
16.75 ShotsContext 18.25
5.63 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00
34% On target shareContext 33%
11.63 Shots in the boxContext 13.88
69% Box shareContext 75%
12% ConversionContext 13%
1.86 OffsidesContext 1.86
10.88 Shots allowedContext 13.63
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50
4.57 BlocksContext 3.88
2.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88
79% Save rateContext 82%
57% PossessionIn forecast 64%
496 PassesContext 601
421 Accurate passesContext 535
85% Pass accuracyContext 89%
7.10 Team ratingContext 7.27
10.13 FoulsContext 7.88
13.38 Fouls sufferedContext 11.38
1.13 Yellow cardsContext 1.38
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50
0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.84 xGVia Att/Def 2.61
0.71 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.74
+0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.11
100% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 50%
16.80 ShotsContext 17.00
5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80
34% On target shareContext 34%
11.80 Shots in the boxContext 13.70
70% Box shareContext 76%
11% ConversionContext 15%
2.00 OffsidesContext 1.67
10.40 Shots allowedContext 15.70
3.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60
4.50 BlocksContext 4.60
2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
83% Save rateContext 76%
58% PossessionIn forecast 62%
484 PassesContext 580
411 Accurate passesContext 515
85% Pass accuracyContext 89%
7.08 Team ratingContext 7.17
10.10 FoulsContext 9.20
12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Charleroi
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km355 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 80 · 12 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · +4.5 vs expected
  • W11 OctA · Standard Liege1–01.4 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Cercle Brugge3–21.9 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Zulte Waregem1–01.2 xPts
  • L5 SepH · Union St. Gilloise2–31.2 xPts
  • W29 AugA · Kortrijk3–11.8 xPts
Club Brugge KV
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel123 km176 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 86 · 12 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · +3.1 vs expected
  • W13 OctA · Inter4–30.9 xPts
  • W10 OctA · RAAL La Louvière4–12.3 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Genk3–01.9 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Antwerp3–12.4 xPts
  • L8 SepH · Aston Villa2–31.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Charleroi Club Brugge KV
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 6 Mar7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 6 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km123 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways355 km176 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Charleroi Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Standard Liege (A) 1–0, 11 Oct
30M. Koné(G)
24M. Nzita 95C. Keita 4A. Ousou 3K. Van Den Kerkhof
18Y. Khalifi 6A. Boukamir
20F. Mbemba 8J. Romsaas 14P. Pflücke
21A. Scheidler
Club Brugge KV Last XI · not confirmed
4-5-1 · vs Inter (A) 4–3, 13 Oct
1Y. Sommer(G)
65J. Seys 44B. Mechele 58J. Spileers 64K. Sabbe
11J. Virgili 20H. Vanaken 8F. Potts 10H. Vetlesen 9Carlos Forbs
7N. Tresoldi

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Charleroi Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Club Brugge KV Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Charleroi · Home 2.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-0-1
Scored
2.50
Conceded
1.50
Club Brugge KV · Away 2.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
3-0-1
Scored
2.25
Conceded
0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentCharleroiClub Brugge KV
Cercle Brugge W 3–2 H W 1–0 H
Kortrijk W 3–1 A W 3–0 H
Lommel United W 1–0 A W 1–0 A
OH Leuven W 3–1 H W 3–0 A
Points12 of 12 · 3.00 per game12 of 12 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 Charleroi wins0 draws4 Club Brugge KV wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.75 Over 2.575% Both scored75% Clean sheets0% · 25%
  • 1 Mar 2026Charleroi1–2Club Brugge KV
  • 22 Nov 2025Club Brugge KV1–0Charleroi
  • 27 Jan 2024Charleroi1–4Club Brugge KV
  • 16 Sep 2023Club Brugge KV4–2Charleroi

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

CharleroiClub Brugge KVForecast
Scored per game 2.002.38
Conceded per game 0.880.50
Match goals 2.882.88
Over 1.5 63%75%
Over 2.5 50%75%
Over 3.5 50%25%
Both teams scored 50%38%
Clean sheets 50%63%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games88
CharleroiClub Brugge KVForecast
Scored per game 1.602.50
Conceded per game 1.001.00
Match goals 2.603.50
Over 1.5 60%80%
Over 2.5 40%80%
Over 3.5 40%40%
Both teams scored 40%50%
Clean sheets 40%50%
Failed to score 20%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

CharleroiClub Brugge KVLeague
Corners
Corners won5.508.25
Corners conceded4.383.13
Match total9.8811.3810.01
Over 8.563% 5/875% 6/8
Over 9.563% 5/875% 6/8
Over 10.563% 5/850% 4/8
Cards
Cards1.131.50
Opponent cards1.382.00
Match total2.513.503.36
Over 3.525% 2/838% 3/8
Over 4.50% 0/838% 3/8
CharleroiClub Brugge KVLeague
Corners
Corners won6.507.30
Corners conceded4.703.40
Match total11.2010.7010.01
Over 8.570% 7/1070% 7/10
Over 9.570% 7/1060% 6/10
Over 10.570% 7/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.401.90
Opponent cards1.402.10
Match total2.804.003.36
Over 3.530% 3/1050% 5/10
Over 4.510% 1/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Charleroi8 games · scored 16 · conceded 7
1 1 0-15
4 1 16-30
3 3 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
3 76-90
Club Brugge KV8 games · scored 19 · conceded 4
2 0-15
2 1 16-30
5 1 31-45
4 46-60
3 1 61-75
3 1 76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
1 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 1 46-60
4 1 61-75
4 76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 25 · conceded 10
2 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
5 3 31-45
4 46-60
6 1 61-75
4 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Anderlecht Lommel United Mar 1316:00 Gent Zulte Waregem Mar 1316:00 Standard Liege KV Mechelen Mar 1316:00 Kortrijk OH Leuven Mar 1316:00 Charleroi Club Brugge KV Mar 1316:00 SK Beveren KVC Westerlo Mar 1316:00 Antwerp RAAL La Louvière Mar 1316:00 Cercle Brugge Union St. Gilloise Mar 1316:00 Genk St. Truiden Mar 1316:00