Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Mar 6 · 16:00 Planet Group Arena, Gent
Gent 1st · 22 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Charleroi 3rd · 21 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel88 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Gent—%
Draw—%
Charleroi—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Gent)

Forecast from 19 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Gent and Charleroi. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

GentCharleroi
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
46 Current StrengthIn forecast 38
46 AttackIn forecast 43
61 DefenceIn forecast 50
84 Form indexContext 80
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Gent

Attack—
Defense risk—

Charleroi

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

GentCharleroi
1.88 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.88
1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.86
0.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.73
+0.57 Goals minus xGContext +0.14
100% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 50%
12.38 ShotsContext 16.75
5.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.63
41% On target shareContext 34%
8.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.63
65% Box shareContext 69%
15% ConversionContext 12%
2.33 OffsidesContext 1.86
10.63 Shots allowedContext 10.88
3.13 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
3.50 BlocksContext 4.57
2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.71
88% Save rateContext 79%
46% PossessionIn forecast 57%
456 PassesContext 496
386 Accurate passesContext 421
85% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.07 Team ratingContext 7.10
10.25 FoulsContext 10.13
9.88 Fouls sufferedContext 13.38
1.38 Yellow cardsContext 1.13
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80
1.42 xGVia Att/Def 1.84
1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.71
+0.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.06
80% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 50%
12.20 ShotsContext 16.80
4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70
36% On target shareContext 34%
8.10 Shots in the boxContext 11.80
67% Box shareContext 70%
12% ConversionContext 11%
2.29 OffsidesContext 2.00
12.60 Shots allowedContext 10.40
4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.63
3.80 BlocksContext 4.50
3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67
82% Save rateContext 83%
46% PossessionIn forecast 58%
453 PassesContext 484
384 Accurate passesContext 411
85% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.04 Team ratingContext 7.08
10.00 FoulsContext 10.10
9.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Gent
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km276 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 84 · 13 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · +5.0 vs expected
  • W10 OctA · Zulte Waregem2–01.4 xPts
  • W18 SepH · Standard Liege2–11.9 xPts
  • D13 SepA · Genk1–11.1 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Cercle Brugge3–01.4 xPts
  • W3 SepH · OH Leuven1–02.2 xPts
Charleroi
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel88 km180 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 80 · 12 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · +4.5 vs expected
  • W11 OctA · Standard Liege1–01.4 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Cercle Brugge3–21.9 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Zulte Waregem1–01.2 xPts
  • L5 SepH · Union St. Gilloise2–31.2 xPts
  • W29 AugA · Kortrijk3–11.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Gent Charleroi
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 27 Feb7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 27 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km88 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways276 km180 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Gent Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Zulte Waregem (A) 2–0, 10 Oct
33D. Roef(G)
44S. Van der Heyden 16C. Burgess 3M. Paskotši
20Tiago Araújo 17M. Delorge-Knieper 22Leonardo Lopes 45B. Goore
11M. Sonko 7M. Balikwisha
75Ibrahima Cisse
Charleroi Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Standard Liege (A) 1–0, 11 Oct
30M. Koné(G)
24M. Nzita 95C. Keita 4A. Ousou 3K. Van Den Kerkhof
18Y. Khalifi 6A. Boukamir
20F. Mbemba 8J. Romsaas 14P. Pflücke
21A. Scheidler

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Gent Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Charleroi Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Gent · Home 3.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
1.75
Conceded
0.50
Charleroi · Away 3.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
1.50
Conceded
0.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentGentCharleroi
Zulte Waregem W 2–0 A W 1–0 A
Standard Liege W 2–1 H W 1–0 A
Cercle Brugge W 3–0 A W 3–2 H
OH Leuven W 1–0 H W 3–1 H
KV Mechelen W 2–0 H W 2–0 H
Points15 of 15 · 3.00 per game15 of 15 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

4 Gent wins0 draws0 Charleroi wins
Goals per game3.25 – 1.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 0%
  • 14 Feb 2026Charleroi2–3Gent
  • 3 Oct 2025Gent2–1Charleroi
  • 17 Mar 2024Gent5–0Charleroi
  • 5 Nov 2023Charleroi1–3Gent

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

GentCharleroiForecast
Scored per game 1.882.00
Conceded per game 0.500.88
Match goals 2.382.88
Over 1.5 88%63%
Over 2.5 50%50%
Over 3.5 0%50%
Both teams scored 50%50%
Clean sheets 50%50%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games88
GentCharleroiForecast
Scored per game 2.001.60
Conceded per game 0.501.00
Match goals 2.502.60
Over 1.5 90%60%
Over 2.5 50%40%
Over 3.5 10%40%
Both teams scored 50%40%
Clean sheets 50%40%
Failed to score 0%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

GentCharleroiLeague
Corners
Corners won5.145.50
Corners conceded3.714.38
Match total8.859.8810.01
Over 8.557% 4/763% 5/8
Over 9.543% 3/763% 5/8
Over 10.543% 3/763% 5/8
Cards
Cards1.501.13
Opponent cards1.501.38
Match total3.002.513.36
Over 3.525% 2/825% 2/8
Over 4.525% 2/80% 0/8
GentCharleroiLeague
Corners
Corners won5.786.50
Corners conceded4.004.70
Match total9.7811.2010.01
Over 8.567% 6/970% 7/10
Over 9.556% 5/970% 7/10
Over 10.556% 5/970% 7/10
Cards
Cards1.701.40
Opponent cards1.201.40
Match total2.902.803.36
Over 3.530% 3/1030% 3/10
Over 4.520% 2/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Gent8 games · scored 15 · conceded 4
2 1 0-15
2 16-30
4 2 31-45
2 1 46-60
61-75
5 76-90
Charleroi8 games · scored 16 · conceded 7
1 1 0-15
4 1 16-30
3 3 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
3 76-90
Gent10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
2 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
4 4 31-45
2 2 46-60
61-75
5 1 76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
1 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 1 46-60
4 1 61-75
4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
OH Leuven Genk Mar 616:00 KVC Westerlo Anderlecht Mar 616:00 KV Mechelen Kortrijk Mar 616:00 Club Brugge KV SK Beveren Mar 616:00 Zulte Waregem Cercle Brugge Mar 616:00 Gent Charleroi Mar 616:00 St. Truiden Antwerp Mar 616:00 Union St. Gilloise Standard Liege Mar 616:00 RAAL La Louvière Lommel United Mar 616:00