Chelsea vs Bournemouth – 30 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 19 Tue, Dec 30 · 19:30 Stamford Bridge, London

Chelsea 5th · 29 pts · 18 played LDWDL

2–2Full time

Bournemouth 15th · 22 pts · 18 played LDDDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Chelsea were slight favourites.

Chelsea were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 67). Chelsea had 3.1 days of rest, Bournemouth 3.2 and had to travel 151 km.

Away travel151 kmRest days3.1 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Chelsea59%

Draw22%

Bournemouth19%

Expected goals 2.04 – 1.09

Chelsea56%

Draw24%

Bournemouth20%

Expected goals 1.82 – 0.98

Chelsea58%

Draw22%

Bournemouth19%

Expected goals 2.00 – 1.07

Chelsea51%

Draw24%

Bournemouth25%

Expected goals 1.82 – 1.22

Chelsea57%

Draw24%

Bournemouth19%

Expected goals 1.86 – 1.00

Over 2.5 61% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeSamuel Barrott

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 72

Team strength

Chelsea

Bournemouth

83 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

77 AttackIn forecast 83

74 DefenceIn forecast 82

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Chelsea

Bournemouth

1.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.06 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.83

1.71 xGVia Att/Def 1.51

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.49

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

89% Scored inContext 78%

44% Clean sheetsContext 28%

14.06 ShotsContext 13.67

4.94 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.11

35% On target shareContext 37%

9.22 Shots in the boxContext 8.88

66% Box shareContext 60%

12% ConversionContext 11%

2.17 OffsidesContext 2.17

10.17 Shots allowedContext 11.94

3.65 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.78

2.63 BlocksContext 3.39

2.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.31

71% Save rateContext 64%

59% PossessionIn forecast 52%

521 PassesContext 427

449 Accurate passesContext 345

86% Pass accuracyContext 81%

7.05 Team ratingContext 6.81

12.00 FoulsContext 12.56

12.39 Fouls sufferedContext 11.06

2.28 Yellow cardsContext 2.44

0.17 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 18 and 18 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20

1.61 xGVia Att/Def 1.67

1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.37

90% Scored inContext 70%

50% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.90 ShotsContext 14.70

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.60

32% On target shareContext 38%

9.20 Shots in the boxContext 10.11

65% Box shareContext 61%

12% ConversionContext 9%

2.60 OffsidesContext 2.10

10.00 Shots allowedContext 12.40

4.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.20

2.63 BlocksContext 3.60

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.75

73% Save rateContext 61%

57% PossessionIn forecast 54%

507 PassesContext 435

436 Accurate passesContext 351

86% Pass accuracyContext 81%

7.02 Team ratingContext 6.75

13.10 FoulsContext 13.00

11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.90

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Chelsea

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km796 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Bournemouth

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel151 km278 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Chelsea	Bournemouth
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.1Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Dec	3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	151 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	796 km	278 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	4.9	3.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Chelsea Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Robert Sánchez(G)

27M. Gusto 23T. Chalobah 29W. Fofana 34J. Acheampong

8E. Fernández 25M. Caicedo

49A. Garnacho 10C. Palmer 41Estêvão

9L. Delap

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 5M. Senesi 23J. Hill 20Álex Jiménez

8A. Scott 16M. Tavernier

24A. Semenyo 19J. Kluivert 7D. Brooks

9Evanilson

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Chelsea Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Bournemouth Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Chelsea+0.6 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Bournemouth-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Chelsea · Home 1.56points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 4-2-3
Scored: 1.44
Conceded: 1.00

Bournemouth · Away 0.67points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 1-3-5
Scored: 1.78
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Chelsea	Bournemouth
Aston Villa	L 1–2 H	L 0–4 A
Newcastle	D 2–2 A	D 0–0 H
Everton	W 2–0 H	L 0–1 H
Leeds	L 1–3 A	D 2–2 A
Burnley	W 2–0 A	D 1–1 H
Wolves	W 3–0 H	W 1–0 H
Tottenham	W 1–0 A	W 1–0 A
Sunderland	L 1–2 H	L 2–3 A
Nottingham Forest	W 3–0 A	W 2–0 H
Liverpool	W 2–1 H	L 2–4 A
Brighton	L 1–3 H	W 2–1 H
Manchester United	L 1–2 A	D 4–4 A
Brentford	D 2–2 A	L 1–4 A
Fulham	W 2–0 H	W 3–1 H
West Ham	W 5–1 A	D 2–2 H
Crystal Palace	D 0–0 H	D 3–3 A
Points	27 of 48 · 1.69 per game	21 of 48 · 1.31 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

4 Chelsea wins3 draws0 Bournemouth wins

Goals per game1.43 – 0.57 Over 2.543% Both scored43% Clean sheets57% · 29%

6 Dec 2025Bournemouth0–0Chelsea
14 Jan 2025Chelsea2–2Bournemouth
14 Sep 2024Bournemouth0–1Chelsea
19 May 2024Chelsea2–1Bournemouth
17 Sep 2023Bournemouth0–0Chelsea
6 May 2023Bournemouth1–3Chelsea

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Chelsea	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	1.67	1.50
Conceded per game	1.06	1.83
Match goals	2.72	3.33	3.13
Over 1.5	83%	72%
Over 2.5	61%	61%	61%
Over 3.5	28%	56%
Both teams scored	56%	61%	58%
Clean sheets	44%	28%
Failed to score	11%	22%
Games	18	18

	Chelsea	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.30
Conceded per game	1.00	2.20
Match goals	2.40	3.50	3.13
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	61%
Over 3.5	20%	60%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	58%
Clean sheets	50%	20%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Chelsea	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	5.82	5.81
Corners conceded	4.29	4.63
Match total	10.11	10.44	9.89
Over 8.5	82% 14/17	69% 11/16
Over 9.5	76% 13/17	56% 9/16
Over 10.5	47% 8/17	50% 8/16
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.50
Opponent cards	2.28	2.17
Match total	4.78	4.67	3.87
Over 3.5	61% 11/18	72% 13/18
Over 4.5	56% 10/18	44% 8/18

	Chelsea	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	5.38	6.22
Corners conceded	3.88	4.78
Match total	9.26	11.00	9.89
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.50
Opponent cards	1.90	2.20
Match total	4.30	4.70	3.87
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Samuel Barrott 72 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.69league 3.72

Red cards0.07league 0.11

Cards 5+32%league 38%

Fouls20.3league 21.5

Penalties0.25league 0.19

Home wins39%league 48%

Chelsea2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.1.5 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L26 Dec 24H · Fulham1–21
W21 Sep 24A · West Ham3–02

Bournemouth4 with this referee

Record3-1-0 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.8 Pens for · against0 · 0

W26 Oct 25H · Nottingham Forest2–03
D19 Apr 25A · Crystal Palace0–04
W30 Mar 24H · Everton2–11
W28 Oct 23H · Burnley2–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.