Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest – 4 May 2026

Premier League Gameweek 35 Mon, May 4 · 15:00 Stamford Bridge, London

Chelsea 9th · 48 pts · 34 played LLLLL

1–3Full time

Nottingham Forest 16th · 39 pts · 34 played DWDWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Nottingham Forest. Chelsea had 12.8 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 3.8 and had to travel 175 km.

Away travel175 kmRest days12.8 · 3.8Matches / 14d1 · 2

Chelsea38%

Draw25%

Nottingham Forest37%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.50

Chelsea43%

Draw27%

Nottingham Forest30%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.20

Chelsea37%

Draw26%

Nottingham Forest37%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.49

Chelsea31%

Draw25%

Nottingham Forest44%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.68

Chelsea37%

Draw26%

Nottingham Forest37%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.41

Over 2.5 59% Both score 62% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeAnthony Taylor

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 200

Team strength

Chelsea

Nottingham Forest

75 L90 StrengthIn forecast 75

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 70

77 AttackIn forecast 68

74 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nottingham Forest

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Chelsea

Nottingham Forest

1.56 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.21

1.32 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.32

1.83 xGVia Att/Def 1.15

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

-0.27 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

79% Scored inContext 59%

26% Clean sheetsContext 26%

13.68 ShotsContext 12.56

4.58 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.15

33% On target shareContext 32%

9.24 Shots in the boxContext 7.59

67% Box shareContext 62%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.25 OffsidesContext 2.08

10.91 Shots allowedContext 12.41

4.36 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.12

2.97 BlocksContext 4.35

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.79

69% Save rateContext 66%

58% PossessionIn forecast 47%

543 PassesContext 409

474 Accurate passesContext 336

87% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.88

10.82 FoulsContext 10.94

11.91 Fouls sufferedContext 11.76

2.32 Yellow cardsContext 1.62

0.12 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 34 and 34 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50

1.46 xGVia Att/Def 1.32

1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.94

-0.66 Goals minus xGContext +0.48

40% Scored inContext 80%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

13.60 ShotsContext 13.20

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

29% On target shareContext 37%

8.30 Shots in the boxContext 8.40

62% Box shareContext 65%

6% ConversionContext 14%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.33

10.40 Shots allowedContext 10.10

5.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.20

2.22 BlocksContext 3.10

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

57% Save rateContext 88%

55% PossessionIn forecast 48%

538 PassesContext 416

473 Accurate passesContext 341

88% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.72 Team ratingContext 7.03

9.50 FoulsContext 11.40

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Chelsea

Rest12.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km143 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nottingham Forest

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel175 km435 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Chelsea	Nottingham Forest
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	12.8Premier League 2025-2026, 21 Apr	3.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 30 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	175 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	143 km	435 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	4.9	3.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Chelsea Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Robert Sánchez(G)

3Marc Cucurella 4T. Adarabioyo 23T. Chalobah 27M. Gusto

25M. Caicedo 45R. Lavia

55Jesse Derry 8E. Fernández 10C. Palmer

20João Pedro

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI

4-4-2

26M. Sels(G)

25L. Netz 4Morato 23Jair 44Z. Abbott

24J. McAtee 16N. Domínguez 22R. Yates 29D. Bakwa

9T. Awoniyi 19Igor Jesus

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Chelsea Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nottingham Forest Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Chelsea+1.3 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Nottingham Forest-0.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Chelsea · Home 1.35points per game · 17 home games

W-D-L: 6-5-6
Scored: 1.35
Conceded: 1.24

Nottingham Forest · Away 1.24points per game · 17 away games

W-D-L: 6-3-8
Scored: 1.35
Conceded: 1.41

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Chelsea	Nottingham Forest
Brighton	L 0–3 AL 1–3 H	L 1–2 AL 0–2 H
Manchester United	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A	D 2–2 H
Manchester City	L 0–3 HD 1–1 A	D 2–2 AL 1–2 H
Everton	L 0–3 AW 2–0 H	L 0–2 HL 0–3 A
Newcastle	L 0–1 HD 2–2 A	L 0–2 A
Aston Villa	W 4–1 AL 1–2 H	D 1–1 HL 1–3 A
Arsenal	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	D 0–0 HL 0–3 A
Burnley	D 1–1 HW 2–0 A	W 4–1 HD 1–1 A
Leeds	D 2–2 HL 1–3 A	L 1–3 AW 3–1 H
Wolves	W 3–1 AW 3–0 H	D 0–0 HW 1–0 A
West Ham	W 3–2 HW 5–1 A	W 2–1 AL 0–3 H
Crystal Palace	W 3–1 AD 0–0 H	D 1–1 HD 1–1 A
Brentford	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A	W 2–0 AW 3–1 H
Fulham	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A
Bournemouth	D 2–2 HD 0–0 A	L 0–2 A
Tottenham	W 1–0 A	W 3–0 AW 3–0 H
Sunderland	L 1–2 H	W 5–0 AL 0–1 H
Liverpool	W 2–1 H	L 0–1 HW 3–0 A
Points	45 of 99 · 1.36 per game	39 of 99 · 1.18 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

3 Chelsea wins3 draws1 Nottingham Forest wins

Goals per game1.57 – 1.00 Over 2.543% Both scored57% Clean sheets29% · 14%

18 Oct 2025Nottingham Forest0–3Chelsea
25 May 2025Nottingham Forest0–1Chelsea
6 Oct 2024Chelsea1–1Nottingham Forest
11 May 2024Nottingham Forest2–3Chelsea
2 Sep 2023Chelsea0–1Nottingham Forest
13 May 2023Chelsea2–2Nottingham Forest

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Chelsea	Nottingham Forest	Forecast
Scored per game	1.56	1.21
Conceded per game	1.32	1.32
Match goals	2.88	2.53	3.04
Over 1.5	85%	79%
Over 2.5	65%	53%	59%
Over 3.5	32%	24%
Both teams scored	59%	41%	62%
Clean sheets	26%	26%
Failed to score	21%	41%
Games	34	34

	Chelsea	Nottingham Forest	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.80
Conceded per game	1.80	0.50
Match goals	2.90	2.30	3.04
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	70%	40%	59%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	62%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	50%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Chelsea	Nottingham Forest	League
Corners
Corners won	6.33	5.38
Corners conceded	4.30	4.76
Match total	10.63	10.14	10.04
Over 8.5	82% 27/33	76% 26/34
Over 9.5	73% 24/33	59% 20/34
Over 10.5	55% 18/33	41% 14/34
Cards
Cards	2.53	1.65
Opponent cards	2.21	1.82
Match total	4.74	3.47	3.91
Over 3.5	68% 23/34	44% 15/34
Over 4.5	56% 19/34	24% 8/34

	Chelsea	Nottingham Forest	League
Corners
Corners won	7.20	5.70
Corners conceded	4.00	4.60
Match total	11.20	10.30	10.04
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.50
Opponent cards	1.40	2.00
Match total	3.40	3.50	3.91
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Anthony Taylor 200 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.86league 3.79

Red cards0.15league 0.12

Cards 5+39%league 39%

Fouls21.1league 21.5

Penalties0.24league 0.21

Home wins36%league 43%

Chelsea20 with this referee

Record11-8-1 Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.5 Pens for · against5 · 3 Reds2

W31 Jan 26H · West Ham3–23
D30 Nov 25H · Arsenal1–12
W4 Oct 25H · Liverpool2–10
W25 May 25A · Nottingham Forest1–02
W20 Apr 25A · Fulham2–13

Nottingham Forest14 with this referee

Record2-2-10 Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 2

L22 Feb 26H · Liverpool0–12
L22 Dec 25A · Fulham0–14
D24 Aug 25A · Crystal Palace1–13
L25 May 25H · Chelsea0–12
W19 Jan 25H · Southampton3–20

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.