Chelsea
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Chelsea
9th · 48 pts · 34 played
LLLLL
1–3Full time
Nottingham Forest
16th · 39 pts · 34 played
DWDWW
Chelsea38.2%fair odds 2.62
Draw25.3%fair odds 3.95
Nottingham Forest36.5%fair odds 2.74
Expected goals1.54 – 1.50total 3.04
Likeliest score1–111.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Nottingham Forest
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Chelsea ↓ · Nottingham Forest → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.6 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Chelsea goals, columns Nottingham Forest goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.6%8.59
- 2–18.5%11.76
- 1–28.3%12.06
- 1–06.8%14.73
- 0–16.6%15.13
- 2–26.4%15.68
- 2–05.7%17.64
- 0–25.4%18.53
- 0–05.4%18.57
- 3–14.4%22.95
Winning margin
7.4%
Chelsea by 3+
fair 13.49
11.5%
Chelsea by 2
fair 8.70
19.3%
Chelsea by 1
fair 5.19
25.3%
Draw
fair 3.95
18.8%
Nottingham Forest by 1
fair 5.32
10.9%
Nottingham Forest by 2
fair 9.14
6.8%
Nottingham Forest by 3+
fair 14.68
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Chelsea goals
21%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Nottingham Forest goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 38.2% | 37.0% | +1.2 pp |
| Draw | 25.3% | 26.4% | -1.1 pp |
| Nottingham Forest win | 36.5% | 36.6% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.5% | 53.6% | +4.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 61.6% | 57.8% | +3.8 pp |
| Expected goals Chelsea | 1.54 | 1.42 | +0.12 |
| Expected goals Nottingham Forest | 1.50 | 1.41 | +0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Chelsea win38.2%2.62
- Draw25.3%3.95
- Nottingham Forest win36.5%2.74
- Double chance Chelsea or draw63.5%1.58
- Double chance Chelsea or Nottingham Forest74.7%1.34
- Double chance Nottingham Forest or draw61.8%1.62
- Draw no bet Chelsea51.1%1.96
- Draw no bet Nottingham Forest48.9%2.04
Goals
- Over 0.594.6%1.06
- Over 1.581.2%1.23
- Over 2.558.5%1.71
- Over 3.536.1%2.77
- Over 4.519.1%5.24
- Under 1.518.8%5.32
- Under 2.541.5%2.41
- Under 3.563.9%1.57
Both teams to score
- Yes61.6%1.62
- No38.4%2.60
- Yes and over 2.549.9%2.00
- Chelsea win and yes21.2%4.71
- Draw and yes19.9%5.02
- Nottingham Forest win and yes20.4%4.90
Team goals
- Chelsea over 0.578.5%1.27
- Chelsea over 1.545.5%2.20
- Chelsea over 2.520.1%4.99
- Nottingham Forest over 0.577.7%1.29
- Nottingham Forest over 1.544.2%2.26
- Nottingham Forest over 2.519.1%5.23
- Chelsea clean sheet22.3%4.48
- Nottingham Forest clean sheet21.5%4.65
- Chelsea win to nil16.9%5.91
- Nottingham Forest win to nil16.1%6.21
Handicap
- Chelsea −1.518.9%5.29
- Chelsea −2.57.4%13.49
- Nottingham Forest +1.581.1%1.23
- Nottingham Forest +2.592.6%1.08
- Nottingham Forest −1.517.8%5.63
- Chelsea +1.582.2%1.22
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored347
Favourite won49.9%
Avg chance given to result39.2%
1X2 Brier0.618
Over 2.5 called right55.9%
BTTS called right55.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 51 | 38.4% | 37.3% |
| 40–50% | 128 | 45.0% | 46.1% |
| 50–60% | 93 | 54.9% | 53.8% |
| 60–70% | 46 | 64.2% | 58.7% |
| 70–80% | 26 | 73.5% | 57.7% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 286 of 347 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6159 | 0.6031 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.4% | 40.2% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 51.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 286 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 347 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.