Chelsea vs Tottenham – 19 May 2026

Premier League Gameweek 37 Tue, May 19 · 20:15 Stamford Bridge, London

Chelsea 10th · 49 pts · 36 played LLLLD

2–1Full time

Tottenham 17th · 38 pts · 36 played LDWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Chelsea were slight favourites.

Chelsea were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 64). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Tottenham. Chelsea had 10.3 days of rest, Tottenham 8 and had to travel 0 km.

Away travel0 kmRest days10.3 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Chelsea49%

Draw24%

Tottenham27%

Expected goals 1.79 – 1.28

Chelsea50%

Draw26%

Tottenham24%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.08

Chelsea48%

Draw25%

Tottenham28%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.30

Chelsea41%

Draw25%

Tottenham34%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.44

Chelsea47%

Draw26%

Tottenham27%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.19

Over 2.5 59% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeStuart Attwell

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 141

Team strength

Chelsea

Tottenham

73 L90 StrengthIn forecast 64

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

77 AttackIn forecast 56

74 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Tottenham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Chelsea

Tottenham

1.53 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.28

1.36 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.53

1.81 xGVia Att/Def 1.05

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

-0.28 Goals minus xGContext +0.23

81% Scored inContext 81%

25% Clean sheetsContext 22%

13.67 ShotsContext 11.31

4.54 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.92

32% On target shareContext 35%

9.17 Shots in the boxContext 7.94

67% Box shareContext 68%

11% ConversionContext 11%

2.19 OffsidesContext 1.87

10.69 Shots allowedContext 12.44

4.31 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.08

2.85 BlocksContext 3.46

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.81

68% Save rateContext 65%

58% PossessionIn forecast 50%

546 PassesContext 411

477 Accurate passesContext 334

87% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.82

11.03 FoulsContext 11.89

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.94

2.39 Yellow cardsContext 2.61

0.11 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 36 and 36 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

2.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.42 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

-0.62 Goals minus xGContext +0.07

40% Scored inContext 80%

0% Clean sheetsContext 10%

14.20 ShotsContext 12.60

4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

30% On target shareContext 42%

8.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.80

64% Box shareContext 70%

6% ConversionContext 10%

2.50 OffsidesContext 1.67

9.40 Shots allowedContext 11.30

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

1.78 BlocksContext 3.50

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56

54% Save rateContext 59%

54% PossessionIn forecast 49%

547 PassesContext 391

481 Accurate passesContext 318

88% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.67 Team ratingContext 6.77

9.70 FoulsContext 13.40

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 3.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Chelsea

Rest10.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km573 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Tottenham

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Chelsea	Tottenham
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	10.3Premier League 2025-2026, 9 May	8Premier League 2025-2026, 11 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	573 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.8	4.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Chelsea Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Robert Sánchez(G)

3Marc Cucurella 21J. Hato 29W. Fofana 34J. Acheampong

25M. Caicedo 17Andrey Santos

8E. Fernández 10C. Palmer 7Pedro Neto

9L. Delap

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Tottenham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31A. Kinský(G)

13I. Udogie 37M. van de Ven 4K. Danso 23Pedro Porro

6João Palhinha 30R. Bentancur

11M. Tel 22C. Gallagher 39R. Kolo Muani

9Richarlison

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Chelsea Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Tottenham Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Chelsea+1.2 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Tottenham-1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Chelsea · Home 1.28points per game · 18 home games

W-D-L: 6-5-7
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.33

Tottenham · Away 1.44points per game · 18 away games

W-D-L: 7-5-6
Scored: 1.39
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Chelsea	Tottenham
Liverpool	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H	D 1–1 AL 1–2 H
Nottingham Forest	L 1–3 HW 3–0 A	L 0–3 HL 0–3 A
Brighton	L 0–3 AL 1–3 H	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A
Manchester United	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H
Manchester City	L 0–3 HD 1–1 A	D 2–2 HW 2–0 A
Everton	L 0–3 AW 2–0 H	W 3–0 A
Newcastle	L 0–1 HD 2–2 A	L 1–2 HD 2–2 A
Aston Villa	W 4–1 AL 1–2 H	W 2–1 AL 1–2 H
Arsenal	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	L 1–4 HL 1–4 A
Burnley	D 1–1 HW 2–0 A	D 2–2 AW 3–0 H
Leeds	D 2–2 HL 1–3 A	D 1–1 HW 2–1 A
Wolves	W 3–1 AW 3–0 H	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H
West Ham	W 3–2 HW 5–1 A	L 1–2 HW 3–0 A
Crystal Palace	W 3–1 AD 0–0 H	L 1–3 HW 1–0 A
Brentford	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A	D 0–0 AW 2–0 H
Fulham	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H
Bournemouth	D 2–2 HD 0–0 A	L 2–3 AL 0–1 H
Sunderland	L 1–2 H	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H
Points	46 of 105 · 1.31 per game	38 of 105 · 1.09 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

8 Chelsea wins1 draws1 Tottenham wins

Goals per game2.00 – 0.80 Over 2.540% Both scored30% Clean sheets60% · 10%

1 Nov 2025Tottenham0–1Chelsea
3 Apr 2025Chelsea1–0Tottenham
8 Dec 2024Tottenham3–4Chelsea
2 May 2024Chelsea2–0Tottenham
6 Nov 2023Tottenham1–4Chelsea
26 Feb 2023Tottenham2–0Chelsea

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Chelsea	Tottenham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.53	1.28
Conceded per game	1.36	1.53
Match goals	2.89	2.81	3.07
Over 1.5	86%	83%
Over 2.5	64%	64%	59%
Over 3.5	33%	28%
Both teams scored	61%	61%	61%
Clean sheets	25%	22%
Failed to score	19%	19%
Games	36	36

	Chelsea	Tottenham	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.00
Conceded per game	1.90	1.80
Match goals	2.70	2.80	3.07
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	59%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	70%	61%
Clean sheets	0%	10%
Failed to score	50%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Chelsea	Tottenham	League
Corners
Corners won	6.31	5.82
Corners conceded	4.23	4.65
Match total	10.54	10.47	10.09
Over 8.5	80% 28/35	62% 21/34
Over 9.5	71% 25/35	56% 19/34
Over 10.5	54% 19/35	44% 15/34
Cards
Cards	2.58	2.72
Opponent cards	2.17	1.81
Match total	4.75	4.53	3.91
Over 3.5	69% 25/36	69% 25/36
Over 4.5	56% 20/36	56% 20/36

	Chelsea	Tottenham	League
Corners
Corners won	6.50	6.80
Corners conceded	3.60	3.90
Match total	10.10	10.70	10.09
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	3.30
Opponent cards	1.40	1.70
Match total	3.20	5.00	3.91
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Stuart Attwell 141 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.99league 3.78

Red cards0.13league 0.12

Cards 5+45%league 38%

Fouls21.1league 21.6

Penalties0.21league 0.21

Home wins48%league 43%

Chelsea18 with this referee

Record4-8-6 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.2 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds2

L27 Dec 25H · Aston Villa1–25
D13 Sep 25A · Brentford2–22
D13 Apr 25H · Ipswich2–22
W3 Feb 25H · West Ham2–13
W1 Dec 24H · Aston Villa3–02

Tottenham12 with this referee

Record8-2-2 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 0

D18 Apr 26H · Brighton2–23
D4 Jan 26H · Sunderland1–12
L29 Nov 25H · Fulham1–23
W23 Dec 23H · Everton2–11
W8 Apr 23H · Brighton2–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.