Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Fri, Jan 16 · 19:45 Jan Breydelstadion, Brugge
Club Brugge KV 2nd · 41 pts · 20 played
First leg0–1 2–3Full time
RAAL La Louvière 13th · 20 pts · 20 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Club Brugge KV70.7%fair odds 1.41
Draw18.6%fair odds 5.36
RAAL La Louvière10.7%fair odds 9.38
Expected goals2.25 – 0.76total 3.01
Likeliest score2–012.5%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Club Brugge KV

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

RAAL La Louvière

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Club Brugge KV ↓ · RAAL La Louvière →0123456+
05.43.31.40.40.10.00.0
110.78.93.20.80.20.00.0
212.59.53.60.90.20.00.0
39.37.12.70.70.10.00.0
45.34.01.50.40.10.00.0
52.41.80.70.20.00.00.0
6+1.31.00.40.10.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Club Brugge KV goals, columns RAAL La Louvière goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 2–012.5%8.01
  • 1–010.7%9.38
  • 2–19.5%10.54
  • 3–09.3%10.70
  • 1–18.9%11.25
  • 3–17.1%14.07
  • 0–05.4%18.55
  • 4–05.3%19.04
  • 4–14.0%25.06
  • 2–23.6%27.74

Winning margin

26.1% Club Brugge KV by 3+ fair 3.83
21.3% Club Brugge KV by 2 fair 4.70
23.3% Club Brugge KV by 1 fair 4.30
18.6% Draw fair 5.36
7.6% RAAL La Louvière by 1 fair 13.20
2.4% RAAL La Louvière by 2 fair 41.06
0.7% RAAL La Louvière by 3+ fair 152.28

Goal distribution

Total goals

5%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+

Club Brugge KV goals

11%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
19%4+

RAAL La Louvière goals

47%0
36%1
14%2
3%3
1%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Club Brugge KV win 70.7% 69.9% +0.8 pp
Draw 18.6% 18.8% -0.2 pp
RAAL La Louvière win 10.7% 11.3% -0.6 pp
Over 2.5 57.8% 58.7% -0.8 pp
Both teams score 48.1% 49.5% -1.5 pp
Expected goals Club Brugge KV 2.25 2.25 -0.00
Expected goals RAAL La Louvière 0.76 0.79 -0.03

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Club Brugge KV win70.7%1.41
  • Draw18.6%5.36
  • RAAL La Louvière win10.7%9.38
  • Double chance Club Brugge KV or draw89.3%1.12
  • Double chance Club Brugge KV or RAAL La Louvière81.4%1.23
  • Double chance RAAL La Louvière or draw29.3%3.41
  • Draw no bet Club Brugge KV86.9%1.15
  • Draw no bet RAAL La Louvière13.1%7.63

Goals

  • Over 0.594.6%1.06
  • Over 1.580.6%1.24
  • Over 2.557.8%1.73
  • Over 3.535.4%2.82
  • Over 4.518.6%5.38
  • Under 1.519.4%5.16
  • Under 2.542.2%2.37
  • Under 3.564.6%1.55

Both teams to score

  • Yes48.1%2.08
  • No51.9%1.93
  • Yes and over 2.539.2%2.55
  • Club Brugge KV win and yes29.3%3.41
  • Draw and yes13.3%7.54
  • RAAL La Louvière win and yes5.5%18.23

Team goals

  • Club Brugge KV over 0.589.4%1.12
  • Club Brugge KV over 1.565.7%1.52
  • Club Brugge KV over 2.539.0%2.57
  • RAAL La Louvière over 0.553.2%1.88
  • RAAL La Louvière over 1.517.7%5.65
  • RAAL La Louvière over 2.54.2%23.90
  • Club Brugge KV clean sheet46.8%2.14
  • RAAL La Louvière clean sheet10.6%9.46
  • Club Brugge KV win to nil41.4%2.42
  • RAAL La Louvière win to nil5.2%19.30

Handicap

  • Club Brugge KV −1.547.4%2.11
  • Club Brugge KV −2.526.1%3.83
  • RAAL La Louvière +1.552.6%1.90
  • RAAL La Louvière +2.573.9%1.35
  • RAAL La Louvière −1.53.1%32.34
  • Club Brugge KV +1.596.9%1.03

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored160 Favourite won43.8% Avg chance given to result37.5% 1X2 Brier0.629 Over 2.5 called right53.1% BTTS called right53.8%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%2838.2%32.1%
40–50%8144.9%34.6%
50–60%3454.5%58.8%
60–70%1464.5%78.6%
70–80%374.4%66.7%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 122 of 160 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.63600.6332
Avg chance given to result37.3%37.9%
Favourite won42.6%41.8%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 122 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 160 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.