Como
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Como were slight favourites.
Como were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 30). Como usually keep the ball (60% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Como had 6.9 days of rest, Udinese 6.8 and had to travel 322 km.
Away travel322 kmRest days6.9 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Como58%
Draw24%
Udinese18%
Como58%
Draw23%
Udinese18%
Como58%
Draw24%
Udinese18%
Como51%
Draw26%
Udinese23%
Como59%
Draw23%
Udinese18%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Como)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyAlberto Ruben Arena
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 7
Team strength
Como
Udinese
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
72
AttackIn forecast
22
67
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUdinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ComoUdinese
1.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.06
0.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.65
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
63%
Scored inContext
82%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
13.50
ShotsContext
12.41
4.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.88
36%
On target shareContext
31%
8.13
Shots in the boxContext
7.31
59%
Box shareContext
57%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
1.45
OffsidesContext
1.67
10.63
Shots allowedContext
12.18
3.81
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.27
3.36
BlocksContext
3.35
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.53
75%
Save rateContext
59%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
490
PassesContext
355
423
Accurate passesContext
288
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.78
14.56
FoulsContext
13.76
12.88
Fouls sufferedContext
11.53
2.44
Yellow cardsContext
1.88
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
0.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
50%
Scored inContext
80%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.70
ShotsContext
12.40
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
39%
On target shareContext
32%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.89
59%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.44
OffsidesContext
1.57
10.90
Shots allowedContext
13.10
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.75
2.67
BlocksContext
4.30
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
82%
Save rateContext
58%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
502
PassesContext
340
435
Accurate passesContext
268
87%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.50
FoulsContext
14.70
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Como
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,909 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Udinese
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel322 km598 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Como |
Udinese |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 27 Dec | 6.8Serie A 2025-2026, 27 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 322 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,909 km | 598 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 4.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
18Alberto Moreno
2M. Kempf
14Jacobo Ramón
77I. Van der Brempt
33L. da Cunha
23M. Perrone
6M. Caqueret
17Jesús Rodríguez
11A. Douvikas
31M. Vojvoda
Udinese
Confirmed XI
93D. Padelli(G)
13N. Bertola
27C. Kabasele
31T. Kristensen
11H. Kamara
32J. Ekkelenkamp
8J. Karlström
24J. Piotrowski
59A. Zanoli
9K. Davis
10N. Zaniolo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Como
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Udinese
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Como+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Udinese-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Como · Home
2.14points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-0
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 0.43
Udinese · Away
1.25points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-4
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.88
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | Como | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Lecce | W 3–0 A | W 3–2 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Inter | L 0–4 A | W 2–1 A |
| Sassuolo | W 2–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Cagliari | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Napoli | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Verona | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Parma | D 0–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Juventus | W 2–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Cremonese | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 A | L 1–5 A |
| Genoa | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Bologna | L 0–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| Lazio | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 24 of 45 · 1.60 per game | 19 of 45 · 1.27 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Como wins0 draws1 Udinese wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 20 Jan 2025Como4–1Udinese
- 1 Sep 2024Udinese1–0Como
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Como | Udinese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 1.06 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 1.65 | |
| Match goals | 2.13 | 2.71 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 31% | 47% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 59% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 18% | |
| Games | 16 | 17 |
| Como | Udinese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.90 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Como | Udinese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.69 | 4.69 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.85 | 4.31 | |
| Match total | 7.54 | 9.00 | 8.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 5/13 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 23% 3/13 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 15% 2/13 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.56 | 1.94 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.65 | |
| Match total | 4.56 | 3.59 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 11/16 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 8/16 | 29% 5/17 | |
| Como | Udinese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.56 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 8.80 | 8.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.50 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alberto Ruben Arena Italy · 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.86league 3.90
Red cards0.14league 0.16
Cards 5+0%league 39%
Fouls22.0league 26.0
Penalties0.14league 0.30
Home wins29%league 39%
Como1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W27 Apr 25H · Genoa1–01
Udinese1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D5 Oct 25H · Cagliari1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Como15 games · scored 20 · conceded 11
4
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Udinese17 games · scored 18 · conceded 28
2
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
5
31-45
4
6
46-60
4
4
61-75
2
6
76-90
Como10 games · scored 15 · conceded 7
3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 11 · conceded 18
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
4
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
