Coventry
Attack—
Defense risk—
Premier League
Gameweek 18 Wed, Dec 30 · 19:30
The Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry, West Midlands
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel131 kmRest days3.2 · 4.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Coventry—%
Draw—%
Brentford—%
Weather (Coventry, West Midlands)
Forecast from 15 Dec
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Coventry and Brentford. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Brentford
71%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Brentford
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Coventry
2.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Brentford
7
Scoring in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Attack
-
Trend
Brentford
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Brentford
71%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Streak
Brentford
7
Scoring in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Team strength
CoventryBrentford
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
51
Current StrengthIn forecast
75
47
AttackIn forecast
73
59
DefenceIn forecast
73
64
Form indexContext
61
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBrentford
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CoventryBrentford
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.86
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.14
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.73
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
43%
Scored inContext
100%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
10.29
ShotsContext
15.00
3.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.14
32%
On target shareContext
28%
7.14
Shots in the boxContext
11.43
64%
Box shareContext
76%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.60
17.43
Shots allowedContext
15.43
4.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
6.83
BlocksContext
4.43
2.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.57
46%
Save rateContext
71%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
323
PassesContext
367
247
Accurate passesContext
283
77%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.85
11.00
FoulsContext
14.71
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.29
1.14
Yellow cardsContext
2.71
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.74
+0.61
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
60%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.70
ShotsContext
13.40
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
33%
On target shareContext
27%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
62%
Box shareContext
74%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.71
15.20
Shots allowedContext
17.30
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
5.78
BlocksContext
5.30
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
49%
Save rateContext
72%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
380
PassesContext
369
304
Accurate passesContext
286
80%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.83
9.70
FoulsContext
13.30
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
8.70
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Coventry
LLWWL
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km378 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.3 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
Brentford
DDWDL
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel131 km238 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 61 · 6 pts vs 4.8 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Coventry |
Brentford |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.2Premier League 2026-2027, 27 Dec | 4.2Premier League 2026-2027, 26 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 131 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 378 km | 238 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 2.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Coventry
Last XI · not confirmed
19C. Rushworth(G)
3J. Dasilva
2E. Pinnock
4B. Thomas
27M. van Ewijk
6M. Grimes
8C. Yirenkyi
23S. Thomas-Asante
5J. Rudoni
7T. Sakamoto
49S. Chérif
Brentford
Last XI · not confirmed
1C. Kelleher(G)
23K. Lewis-Potter
4S. van den Berg
20K. Ajer
33M. Kayode
27V. Janelt
6Y. Yarmoliuk
19J. Anthony
8M. Jensen
11D. Ouattara
9Thiago
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Coventry
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Brentford
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Coventry · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.33
Brentford · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Coventry | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | L 1–3 A | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Coventry | Brentford | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.14 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 71% | |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 71% | |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Coventry | Brentford | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 70% | |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 70% | |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 10% | |
| Games | 7 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Coventry | Brentford | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.71 | 3.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.71 | 5.14 | |
| Match total | 8.42 | 9.00 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 29% 2/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 14% 1/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.29 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 2.72 | 4.86 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 29% 2/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Coventry | Brentford | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.56 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 6.40 | |
| Match total | 7.78 | 10.40 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 11% 1/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 4.90 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Coventry7 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Brentford7 games · scored 13 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Coventry10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
6
3
46-60
3
61-75
7
4
76-90
Brentford10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
16-30
5
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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