Premier League Gameweek 18 Wed, Dec 30 · 19:30 Selhurst Park, London
Crystal Palace 14th · 7 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Bournemouth 15th · 6 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel151 kmRest days3 · 4.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Crystal Palace—%
Draw—%
Bournemouth—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (London)

Forecast from 15 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Crystal Palace and Bournemouth. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Crystal PalaceBournemouth
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
64 Current StrengthIn forecast 77
64 AttackIn forecast 83
54 DefenceIn forecast 82
64 Form indexContext 74
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Crystal Palace

Attack—
Defense risk—

Bournemouth

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Crystal PalaceBournemouth
1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29
2.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.86
1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.81
2.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18
-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.52
57% Scored inContext 86%
14% Clean sheetsContext 14%
10.14 ShotsContext 15.14
3.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.14
37% On target shareContext 34%
7.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.57
70% Box shareContext 64%
13% ConversionContext 9%
3.00 OffsidesContext 2.00
17.86 Shots allowedContext 9.57
6.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33
5.29 BlocksContext 2.80
3.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
61% Save rateContext 55%
43% PossessionIn forecast 52%
404 PassesContext 433
326 Accurate passesContext 351
81% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.70 Team ratingContext 6.80
10.00 FoulsContext 13.00
10.14 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00
1.29 Yellow cardsContext 3.00
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.82
1.86 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15
+0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.32
70% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 20%
11.00 ShotsContext 15.80
3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10
36% On target shareContext 32%
7.80 Shots in the boxContext 9.60
71% Box shareContext 62%
15% ConversionContext 10%
2.50 OffsidesContext 2.00
16.30 Shots allowedContext 10.30
5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.11
4.70 BlocksContext 3.29
3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.86
63% Save rateContext 61%
45% PossessionIn forecast 53%
416 PassesContext 434
341 Accurate passesContext 353
82% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.77 Team ratingContext 6.86
10.50 FoulsContext 12.20
9.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.80
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Crystal Palace
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km774 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 64 · 7 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Brighton0–50.6 xPts
  • L15 OctA · Lyon2–31.3 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Nottingham Forest3–11.4 xPts
  • D20 SepA · Leeds0–00.9 xPts
  • W17 SepH · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts
Bournemouth
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel151 km301 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 74 · 9 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Sunderland2–01.8 xPts
  • W15 OctH · Sturm Graz3–02.3 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Chelsea1–51.3 xPts
  • L20 SepH · Liverpool0–11.6 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Real Sociedad2–11.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Crystal Palace Bournemouth
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 8Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3Premier League 2026-2027, 27 Dec4.2Premier League 2026-2027, 26 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km151 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways774 km301 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 61 / 2 / 6
Next matchdays after this one2.82.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Crystal Palace Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Brighton (A) 0–5, 18 Oct
44W. Benítez(G)
21H. Ahanor 26Chris Richards 6J. Canvot
3T. Mitchell 23Q. Timber 20A. Wharton 25A. Khalaili
10Yeremy Pino 18Daichi Kamada
22J. Strand Larsen
Bournemouth Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Sunderland (H) 2–0, 18 Oct
1Đ. Petrović(G)
3A. Truffert 14António Silva 5J. Hill 15A. Smith
10R. Christie 12T. Adams
16M. Tavernier 4L. Cook 37Rayan
9Evanilson

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Crystal Palace Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Bournemouth Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Crystal Palace · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
2.00
Conceded
2.67
Bournemouth · Away 0.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-1-2
Scored
1.33
Conceded
3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentCrystal PalaceBournemouth
Manchester City L 1–4 H L 1–2 A
Everton L 0–2 A D 1–1 H
Points0 of 6 · 0.00 per game1 of 6 · 0.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Crystal Palace wins3 draws3 Bournemouth wins
Goals per game0.88 – 1.13 Over 2.525% Both scored13% Clean sheets50% · 63%
  • 3 May 2026Bournemouth3–0Crystal Palace
  • 18 Oct 2025Crystal Palace3–3Bournemouth
  • 19 Apr 2025Crystal Palace0–0Bournemouth
  • 26 Dec 2024Bournemouth0–0Crystal Palace
  • 2 Apr 2024Bournemouth1–0Crystal Palace
  • 6 Dec 2023Crystal Palace0–2Bournemouth

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Crystal PalaceBournemouthForecast
Scored per game 1.291.29
Conceded per game 2.431.86
Match goals 3.713.14
Over 1.5 86%86%
Over 2.5 71%57%
Over 3.5 71%43%
Both teams scored 57%71%
Clean sheets 14%14%
Failed to score 43%14%
Games77
Crystal PalaceBournemouthForecast
Scored per game 1.601.50
Conceded per game 2.201.50
Match goals 3.803.00
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 80%60%
Over 3.5 70%30%
Both teams scored 60%70%
Clean sheets 20%20%
Failed to score 30%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Crystal PalaceBournemouthLeague
Corners
Corners won3.674.71
Corners conceded6.003.86
Match total9.678.579.49
Over 8.550% 3/629% 2/7
Over 9.533% 2/629% 2/7
Over 10.533% 2/629% 2/7
Cards
Cards1.433.00
Opponent cards1.571.57
Match total3.004.574.17
Over 3.543% 3/771% 5/7
Over 4.529% 2/757% 4/7
Crystal PalaceBournemouthLeague
Corners
Corners won3.894.60
Corners conceded5.224.60
Match total9.119.209.49
Over 8.544% 4/950% 5/10
Over 9.533% 3/940% 4/10
Over 10.533% 3/930% 3/10
Cards
Cards1.602.80
Opponent cards2.001.80
Match total3.604.604.17
Over 3.550% 5/1070% 7/10
Over 4.530% 3/1060% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Crystal Palace7 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
1 5 0-15
2 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 4 46-60
1 61-75
1 3 76-90
Bournemouth7 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
2 2 0-15
1 16-30
3 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 61-75
4 76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 16 · conceded 20
2 6 0-15
1 2 16-30
4 4 31-45
5 4 46-60
1 61-75
3 4 76-90
Bournemouth10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
3 2 0-15
2 16-30
4 3 31-45
4 4 46-60
2 61-75
2 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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