Coventry
Attack+9%
Defense risk−5%
Premier League
Gameweek 6 Mon, Oct 12 · 20:00
The Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry, West Midlands
Our take
Newcastle were slight favourites.
Newcastle were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Coventry. Coventry were without M. van Ewijk and A. Amenda. Newcastle were without A. Dedić and Nico González. Coventry had 23.1 days of rest, Newcastle 23.2 and had to travel 285 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel285 kmRest days23.1 · 23.2Matches / 14d0 · 0
Coventry33%
Draw24%
Newcastle42%
Coventry28%
Draw25%
Newcastle47%
Coventry33%
Draw25%
Newcastle42%
Coventry27%
Draw23%
Newcastle50%
Coventry34%
Draw24%
Newcastle42%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Coventry, West Midlands)
17°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 10 km/h
- Humidity 96%
RefereeJohn Brooks
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 108
Team strength
Coventry
Newcastle
49
L90 StrengthIn forecast
75
51
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
47
AttackIn forecast
61
59
DefenceIn forecast
61
38
Form indexContext
71
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNewcastle
Attack+22%
Defense risk−26%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
CoventryNewcastle
0.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.83
-0.77
Goals minus xGContext
+0.73
20%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.20
ShotsContext
10.20
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
31%
On target shareContext
35%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.20
58%
Box shareContext
61%
2%
ConversionContext
18%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.80
17.40
Shots allowedContext
19.60
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
7.75
BlocksContext
8.40
1.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
41%
Save rateContext
68%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
342
PassesContext
417
264
Accurate passesContext
346
77%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.87
12.00
FoulsContext
12.20
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
0.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
50%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.70
ShotsContext
11.50
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
28%
On target shareContext
37%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
64%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.56
13.20
Shots allowedContext
17.50
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
5.22
BlocksContext
6.60
1.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.10
47%
Save rateContext
73%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
438
PassesContext
431
361
Accurate passesContext
359
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.91
9.80
FoulsContext
10.60
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
0.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Coventry
LLLLW
Rest23.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 38 · 3 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
Newcastle
DWDLW
Rest23.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel285 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 71 · 8 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Coventry |
Newcastle |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 23.1Premier League 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 23.2Premier League 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 285 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 4.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Coventry
Confirmed XI
19C. Rushworth(G)
3J. Dasilva
4B. Thomas
2E. Pinnock
27M. van Ewijk
6M. Grimes
8C. Yirenkyi
10E. Mason-Clark
5J. Rudoni
23S. Thomas-Asante
49S. Chérif
Newcastle
Confirmed XI
21L. Horníček(G)
3L. Hall
4S. Botman
12M. Thiaw
67L. Miley
28J. Willock
6Nico González
11H. Barnes
9Y. Wissa
23J. Murphy
20M. Fernandez-Pardo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Coventry
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals
Attack line −19.4% · Defence line −24.4% of weighted minutes
- DEF M. van Ewijk Starter 6.73 Def −9.8%
- DEF A. Amenda Starter 6.66 Def −9.0%
- ATT T. Awoniyi Starter 6.37 Att −11.6%
- ATT H. Wright Rotation 6.77 Att −5.7%
- DEF J. Latibeaudiere Rotation 6.86 Def −2.1%
- MID J. Eccles Rotation 6.83 Att −2.1% Def −1.1%
Newcastle
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.06 goals
Attack line −26.0% · Defence line −24.6% of weighted minutes
- DEF A. Dedić Starter 6.38 Def −11.0%
- MID Nico González Starter 6.32 Att −6.0% Def −3.5%
- DEF D. Burn Rotation 6.62 Def −4.2%
- MID L. Miley Rotation 6.92 Att −3.2% Def −1.8%
- ATT Joelinton Rotation 6.77 Att −6.3%
- MID J. Ramsey Rotation 6.66 Att −3.0% Def −1.7%
Total impact vs full squads
- Coventry+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Newcastle-0.1 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Coventry · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Newcastle · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Coventry | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| Hull City | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Coventry | Newcastle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.20 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 80% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 80% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Coventry | Newcastle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.20 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.10 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 70% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 80% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Coventry | Newcastle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 10.40 | 9.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 4.80 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 1/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Coventry | Newcastle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 7.56 | 9.80 | 9.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 11% 1/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.90 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 4.40 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · John Brooks 108 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.37league 3.86
Red cards0.14league 0.15
Cards 5+49%league 42%
Fouls22.6league 23.2
Penalties0.25league 0.15
Home wins52%league 37%
Coventry1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W25 Jan 22H · Stoke City1–02
Newcastle8 with this referee
Record5-0-3
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W4 Jan 26H · Crystal Palace2–01
- W11 May 25H · Chelsea2–04
- W2 Nov 24H · Arsenal1–04
- L11 Mar 24A · Chelsea2–31
- W30 Jan 24A · Aston Villa3–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Coventry5 games · scored 1 · conceded 10
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
Newcastle5 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
3
1
0-15
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Coventry10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
Newcastle10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
5
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
