Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth – 18 Oct 2025

Premier League Gameweek 8 Sat, Oct 18 · 15:00 Selhurst Park, London

Crystal Palace 7th · 12 pts · 7 played WDWWL

3–3Full time

Bournemouth 5th · 14 pts · 7 played WWDDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Crystal Palace were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Crystal Palace had 13 days of rest, Bournemouth 14.8 and had to travel 151 km.

Away travel151 kmRest days13 · 14.8Matches / 14d1 · 0

Crystal Palace48%

Draw25%

Bournemouth26%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.20

Crystal Palace48%

Draw26%

Bournemouth26%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.12

Crystal Palace48%

Draw25%

Bournemouth27%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.19

Crystal Palace41%

Draw26%

Bournemouth33%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.34

Crystal Palace48%

Draw26%

Bournemouth26%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.13

Over 2.5 55% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeJarred Gillett

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 91

Team strength

Crystal Palace

Bournemouth

79 L90 StrengthIn forecast 74

64 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

64 AttackIn forecast 83

54 DefenceIn forecast 82

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Crystal Palace

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Crystal Palace

Bournemouth

1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.57

0.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.14

1.85 xGVia Att/Def 1.20

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.91

-0.56 Goals minus xGContext +0.37

71% Scored inContext 86%

43% Clean sheetsContext 43%

12.57 ShotsContext 13.00

5.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.43

41% On target shareContext 34%

8.71 Shots in the boxContext 7.86

70% Box shareContext 59%

10% ConversionContext 12%

1.80 OffsidesContext 2.14

12.71 Shots allowedContext 10.14

3.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.86

3.00 BlocksContext 2.57

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.71

76% Save rateContext 70%

41% PossessionIn forecast 51%

361 PassesContext 425

286 Accurate passesContext 345

79% Pass accuracyContext 81%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.91

11.14 FoulsContext 11.43

10.29 Fouls sufferedContext 11.71

2.43 Yellow cardsContext 2.29

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.83 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92

-0.63 Goals minus xGContext +0.24

70% Scored inContext 80%

60% Clean sheetsContext 40%

13.40 ShotsContext 12.70

5.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

38% On target shareContext 34%

8.40 Shots in the boxContext 7.70

65% Box shareContext 62%

9% ConversionContext 11%

1.83 OffsidesContext 2.20

11.10 Shots allowedContext 9.20

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.89

2.70 BlocksContext 2.50

2.83 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56

77% Save rateContext 66%

48% PossessionIn forecast 53%

409 PassesContext 435

328 Accurate passesContext 357

80% Pass accuracyContext 82%

7.02 Team ratingContext 6.90

10.30 FoulsContext 13.10

9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Crystal Palace

Rest13 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km573 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Bournemouth

Rest14.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel151 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Crystal Palace	Bournemouth
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	13Premier League 2025-2026, 5 Oct	14.8Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	151 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	573 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 0 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Crystal Palace Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1D. Henderson(G)

6A. Guéhi 5M. Lacroix 26Chris Richards

3T. Mitchell 20A. Wharton 18Daichi Kamada 2D. Muñoz

10Yeremy Pino 7I. Sarr

14J. Mateta

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 5M. Senesi 18B. Diakité 20Álex Jiménez

12T. Adams 8A. Scott

24A. Semenyo 19J. Kluivert 16M. Tavernier

22E. Kroupi

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Crystal Palace Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Bournemouth Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Crystal Palace+0.5 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Bournemouth-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Crystal Palace · Home 1.67points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.67

Bournemouth · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Crystal Palace	Bournemouth
Liverpool	W 2–1 H	L 2–4 A
Points	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Crystal Palace wins2 draws2 Bournemouth wins

Goals per game0.67 – 0.50 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets67% · 67%

19 Apr 2025Crystal Palace0–0Bournemouth
26 Dec 2024Bournemouth0–0Crystal Palace
2 Apr 2024Bournemouth1–0Crystal Palace
6 Dec 2023Crystal Palace0–2Bournemouth
13 May 2023Crystal Palace2–0Bournemouth
31 Dec 2022Bournemouth0–2Crystal Palace

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Crystal Palace	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	1.29	1.57
Conceded per game	0.71	1.14
Match goals	2.00	2.71	2.89
Over 1.5	71%	57%
Over 2.5	57%	57%	55%
Over 3.5	0%	43%
Both teams scored	57%	57%	57%
Clean sheets	43%	43%
Failed to score	29%	14%
Games	7	7

	Crystal Palace	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	1.29	1.57
Conceded per game	0.71	1.14
Match goals	2.00	2.71	2.89
Over 1.5	71%	57%
Over 2.5	57%	57%	55%
Over 3.5	0%	43%
Both teams scored	57%	57%	57%
Clean sheets	43%	43%
Failed to score	29%	14%
Games	7	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Crystal Palace	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	3.29	5.33
Corners conceded	6.14	4.17
Match total	9.43	9.50	9.71
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	50% 3/6
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	50% 3/6
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	50% 3/6
Cards
Cards	2.43	2.29
Opponent cards	2.29	2.29
Match total	4.72	4.58	3.97
Over 3.5	86% 6/7	57% 4/7
Over 4.5	71% 5/7	43% 3/7

	Crystal Palace	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	3.70	4.88
Corners conceded	5.00	3.63
Match total	8.70	8.51	9.71
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	38% 3/8
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.40
Opponent cards	2.20	2.50
Match total	4.40	4.90	3.97
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jarred Gillett 91 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.63league 3.83

Red cards0.11league 0.14

Cards 5+36%league 44%

Fouls20.0league 22.3

Penalties0.21league 0.21

Home wins41%league 48%

Crystal Palace5 with this referee

Record2-1-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.8 Pens for · against0 · 0

L12 Apr 25A · Manchester City2–53
D1 Sep 24A · Chelsea1–12
W6 May 24H · Manchester United4–01
L25 Nov 23A · Luton1–21
W30 Apr 22A · Southampton2–13

Bournemouth4 with this referee

Record2-0-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

W3 May 25A · Arsenal2–12
W15 Feb 25A · Southampton3–13
L24 Feb 24H · Manchester City0–12
L14 Jan 23A · Brentford0–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.