Crystal Palace vs Brentford – 1 Nov 2025

Premier League Gameweek 10 Sat, Nov 1 · 15:00 Selhurst Park, London

Crystal Palace 10th · 13 pts · 9 played WWLDL

2–0Full time

Brentford 11th · 13 pts · 9 played LWLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Crystal Palace were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Crystal Palace. Crystal Palace had 6 days of rest, Brentford 6.8 and had to travel 13 km.

Away travel13 kmRest days6 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 2

Crystal Palace47%

Draw26%

Brentford28%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.20

Crystal Palace47%

Draw26%

Brentford27%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.14

Crystal Palace48%

Draw26%

Brentford27%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.16

Crystal Palace39%

Draw26%

Brentford34%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.35

Crystal Palace46%

Draw26%

Brentford28%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.18

Over 2.5 54% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereePeter Bankes

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 107

Team strength

Crystal Palace

Brentford

76 L90 StrengthIn forecast 71

64 Current StrengthIn forecast 75

64 AttackIn forecast 73

54 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Crystal Palace

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Crystal Palace

Brentford

1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.56

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.56

1.98 xGVia Att/Def 1.53

1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

-0.65 Goals minus xGContext +0.03

67% Scored inContext 89%

33% Clean sheetsContext 22%

12.78 ShotsContext 10.67

4.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.44

38% On target shareContext 42%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

71% Box shareContext 76%

10% ConversionContext 15%

1.86 OffsidesContext 1.86

11.89 Shots allowedContext 13.22

3.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.89

3.00 BlocksContext 4.78

2.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56

69% Save rateContext 66%

42% PossessionIn forecast 40%

366 PassesContext 330

286 Accurate passesContext 257

78% Pass accuracyContext 78%

7.02 Team ratingContext 6.79

10.78 FoulsContext 11.67

10.44 Fouls sufferedContext 9.22

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

2.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.52

1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35

-0.86 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

60% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.20 ShotsContext 10.90

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

36% On target shareContext 43%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.25

72% Box shareContext 77%

10% ConversionContext 14%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.75

10.00 Shots allowedContext 13.70

3.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

2.33 BlocksContext 4.70

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

69% Save rateContext 68%

49% PossessionIn forecast 41%

422 PassesContext 341

339 Accurate passesContext 269

80% Pass accuracyContext 79%

7.02 Team ratingContext 6.82

11.10 FoulsContext 11.40

10.10 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Crystal Palace

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brentford

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel13 km26 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Crystal Palace	Brentford
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Premier League 2025-2026, 26 Oct	6.8Premier League 2025-2026, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	13 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	26 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Crystal Palace Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1D. Henderson(G)

6A. Guéhi 5M. Lacroix 26Chris Richards

3T. Mitchell 18Daichi Kamada 8J. Lerma 2D. Muñoz

10Yeremy Pino 7I. Sarr

14J. Mateta

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1C. Kelleher(G)

20K. Ajer 4S. van den Berg 22N. Collins 33M. Kayode

6J. Henderson 18Y. Yarmoliuk

7K. Schade 24M. Damsgaard 19D. Ouattara

9Thiago

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Crystal Palace Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Brentford Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Crystal Palace-0.7 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Brentford+0.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Crystal Palace · Home 1.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-3-0
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.25

Brentford · Away 0.75points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-3
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

Opponent	Crystal Palace	Brentford
Liverpool	W 2–1 H	W 3–2 H
West Ham	W 2–1 A	W 2–0 A
Sunderland	D 0–0 H	L 1–2 A
Aston Villa	W 3–0 A	W 1–0 H
Nottingham Forest	D 1–1 H	L 1–3 A
Chelsea	D 0–0 A	D 2–2 H
Points	12 of 18 · 2.00 per game	10 of 18 · 1.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

1 Crystal Palace wins5 draws2 Brentford wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.00 Over 2.538% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 25%

26 Jan 2025Crystal Palace1–2Brentford
18 Aug 2024Brentford2–1Crystal Palace
30 Dec 2023Crystal Palace3–1Brentford
26 Aug 2023Brentford1–1Crystal Palace
18 Feb 2023Brentford1–1Crystal Palace
30 Aug 2022Crystal Palace1–1Brentford

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Crystal Palace	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	1.33	1.56
Conceded per game	1.00	1.56
Match goals	2.33	3.11	2.84
Over 1.5	67%	78%
Over 2.5	56%	67%	54%
Over 3.5	11%	56%
Both teams scored	56%	67%	57%
Clean sheets	33%	22%
Failed to score	33%	11%
Games	9	9

	Crystal Palace	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	1.33	1.56
Conceded per game	1.00	1.56
Match goals	2.33	3.11	2.84
Over 1.5	67%	78%
Over 2.5	56%	67%	54%
Over 3.5	11%	56%
Both teams scored	56%	67%	57%
Clean sheets	33%	22%
Failed to score	33%	11%
Games	9	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Crystal Palace	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	3.56	5.33
Corners conceded	5.78	4.33
Match total	9.34	9.66	9.84
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.00
Opponent cards	2.22	2.11
Match total	4.22	4.11	3.66
Over 3.5	78% 7/9	67% 6/9
Over 4.5	67% 6/9	56% 5/9

	Crystal Palace	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	4.40	5.10
Corners conceded	4.40	4.70
Match total	8.80	9.80	9.84
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.90
Opponent cards	2.10	2.10
Match total	4.00	4.00	3.66
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Peter Bankes 107 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.09league 3.56

Red cards0.11league 0.11

Cards 5+44%league 39%

Fouls21.6league 21.9

Penalties0.15league 0.20

Home wins49%league 50%

Crystal Palace4 with this referee

Record1-1-2 Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.8 Pens for · against0 · 0

W4 Nov 23A · Burnley2–05
D26 Aug 23A · Brentford1–10
L15 Mar 23A · Brighton0–12
L15 Jan 23A · Chelsea0–15

Brentford14 with this referee

Record3-4-7 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.9 Pens for · against3 · 0

L17 Aug 25A · Nottingham Forest1–32
L2 Apr 25A · Newcastle1–21
L1 Jan 25H · Arsenal1–31
L15 Dec 24A · Chelsea1–22
L6 Dec 23A · Brighton1–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.