Crystal Palace
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Crystal Palace46.3%fair odds 2.16
Draw25.7%fair odds 3.89
Brighton28.0%fair odds 3.57
Expected goals1.62 – 1.22total 2.84
Likeliest score1–112.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Brighton
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Crystal Palace ↓ · Brighton → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.2 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Crystal Palace goals, columns Brighton goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%8.23
- 2–19.4%10.68
- 1–08.9%11.26
- 2–07.7%12.98
- 1–27.0%14.25
- 0–16.5%15.39
- 0–06.5%15.49
- 2–25.7%17.56
- 3–15.1%19.73
- 0–24.3%23.14
Winning margin
10.2%
Crystal Palace by 3+
fair 9.83
14.2%
Crystal Palace by 2
fair 7.04
21.9%
Crystal Palace by 1
fair 4.57
25.7%
Draw
fair 3.89
16.2%
Brighton by 1
fair 6.16
8.0%
Brighton by 2
fair 12.55
3.8%
Brighton by 3+
fair 26.25
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Crystal Palace goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
Brighton goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 46.3% | 45.9% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 25.7% | 26.4% | -0.7 pp |
| Brighton win | 28.0% | 27.7% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.0% | 51.1% | +2.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.1% | 54.8% | +2.3 pp |
| Expected goals Crystal Palace | 1.62 | 1.56 | +0.06 |
| Expected goals Brighton | 1.22 | 1.16 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Crystal Palace win46.3%2.16
- Draw25.7%3.89
- Brighton win28.0%3.57
- Double chance Crystal Palace or draw72.0%1.39
- Double chance Crystal Palace or Brighton74.3%1.35
- Double chance Brighton or draw53.7%1.86
- Draw no bet Crystal Palace62.3%1.61
- Draw no bet Brighton37.7%2.65
Goals
- Over 0.593.5%1.07
- Over 1.578.2%1.28
- Over 2.554.0%1.85
- Over 3.531.7%3.16
- Over 4.515.9%6.31
- Under 1.521.8%4.58
- Under 2.546.0%2.17
- Under 3.568.3%1.46
Both teams to score
- Yes57.1%1.75
- No42.9%2.33
- Yes and over 2.544.9%2.22
- Crystal Palace win and yes23.1%4.33
- Draw and yes19.3%5.19
- Brighton win and yes14.8%6.78
Team goals
- Crystal Palace over 0.580.3%1.25
- Crystal Palace over 1.548.3%2.07
- Crystal Palace over 2.522.3%4.49
- Brighton over 0.570.4%1.42
- Brighton over 1.534.3%2.91
- Brighton over 2.512.4%8.06
- Crystal Palace clean sheet29.6%3.37
- Brighton clean sheet19.7%5.07
- Crystal Palace win to nil23.2%4.31
- Brighton win to nil13.3%7.54
Handicap
- Crystal Palace −1.524.4%4.10
- Crystal Palace −2.510.2%9.83
- Brighton +1.575.6%1.32
- Brighton +2.589.8%1.11
- Brighton −1.511.8%8.49
- Crystal Palace +1.588.2%1.13
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored105
Favourite won54.3%
Avg chance given to result40.4%
1X2 Brier0.591
Over 2.5 called right55.2%
BTTS called right51.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 16 | 38.2% | 43.8% |
| 40–50% | 39 | 44.4% | 48.7% |
| 50–60% | 27 | 54.2% | 55.6% |
| 60–70% | 16 | 64.4% | 75.0% |
| 70–80% | 7 | 73.8% | 57.1% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 75 of 105 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5861 | 0.5682 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.8% | 41.9% |
| Favourite won | 54.7% | 54.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 75 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 105 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.