Crystal Palace vs Brighton – 9 Nov 2025

Premier League Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 9 · 14:00 Selhurst Park, London

Crystal Palace 9th · 16 pts · 10 played WLDLW

0–0Full time

Brighton 10th · 15 pts · 10 played WDWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Crystal Palace were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Crystal Palace had 8 days of rest, Brighton 8 and had to travel 72 km.

Away travel72 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1

Crystal Palace46%

Draw26%

Brighton28%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.22

Crystal Palace45%

Draw27%

Brighton28%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.16

Crystal Palace46%

Draw26%

Brighton29%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.22

Crystal Palace39%

Draw26%

Brighton35%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.36

Crystal Palace46%

Draw26%

Brighton28%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.16

Over 2.5 54% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeTim Robinson

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.16
Matches 114

Team strength

Crystal Palace

Brighton

77 L90 StrengthIn forecast 75

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

64 AttackIn forecast 87

54 DefenceIn forecast 85

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Crystal Palace

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Crystal Palace

Brighton

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.85 xGVia Att/Def 1.64

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.25

-0.45 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

70% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.50 ShotsContext 12.60

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

38% On target shareContext 37%

8.70 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

70% Box shareContext 61%

11% ConversionContext 14%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.88

11.30 Shots allowedContext 10.70

3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

2.89 BlocksContext 2.44

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.30

71% Save rateContext 64%

42% PossessionIn forecast 48%

356 PassesContext 420

275 Accurate passesContext 350

77% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.02 Team ratingContext 6.84

10.40 FoulsContext 12.40

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 10 and 10 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

2.11 xGVia Att/Def 1.64

1.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.25

-0.61 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

70% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

14.60 ShotsContext 12.60

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

34% On target shareContext 37%

10.40 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

70% Box shareContext 61%

10% ConversionContext 14%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.88

9.30 Shots allowedContext 10.70

3.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

2.38 BlocksContext 2.44

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.30

68% Save rateContext 64%

46% PossessionIn forecast 48%

385 PassesContext 420

301 Accurate passesContext 350

78% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.84

11.00 FoulsContext 12.40

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Crystal Palace

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brighton

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel72 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Crystal Palace	Brighton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Nov	8Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	72 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	13	13

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Crystal Palace Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1D. Henderson(G)

23J. Canvot 5M. Lacroix 26Chris Richards

3T. Mitchell 8J. Lerma 20A. Wharton 2D. Muñoz

18Daichi Kamada 7I. Sarr

14J. Mateta

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Brighton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Verbruggen(G)

24F. Kadıoğlu 5L. Dunk 6J. van Hecke 27M. Wieffer

26Y. Ayari 17C. Baleba

25D. Gómez 10G. Rutter 11Y. Minteh

18D. Welbeck

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Crystal Palace Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Brighton Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Crystal Palace+0.7 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Brighton-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Crystal Palace · Home 1.80points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 2-3-0
Scored: 1.60
Conceded: 1.00

Brighton · Away 0.80points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-3
Scored: 1.40
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Crystal Palace	Brighton
Bournemouth	D 3–3 H	L 1–2 A
Everton	L 1–2 A	L 0–2 A
Chelsea	D 0–0 A	W 3–1 A
Points	2 of 9 · 0.67 per game	3 of 9 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Crystal Palace wins5 draws2 Brighton wins

Goals per game1.30 – 1.30 Over 2.540% Both scored90% Clean sheets0% · 10%

5 Apr 2025Crystal Palace2–1Brighton
15 Dec 2024Brighton1–3Crystal Palace
3 Feb 2024Brighton4–1Crystal Palace
21 Dec 2023Crystal Palace1–1Brighton
15 Mar 2023Brighton1–0Crystal Palace
11 Feb 2023Crystal Palace1–1Brighton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Crystal Palace	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.70
Conceded per game	0.90	1.50
Match goals	2.30	3.20	2.84
Over 1.5	70%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	54%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	80%	57%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

	Crystal Palace	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.70
Conceded per game	0.90	1.50
Match goals	2.30	3.20	2.84
Over 1.5	70%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	54%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	80%	57%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Crystal Palace	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	3.80	4.80
Corners conceded	5.70	4.00
Match total	9.50	8.80	9.83
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.40
Opponent cards	2.30	2.50
Match total	4.10	4.90	3.68
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

	Crystal Palace	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	4.80
Corners conceded	3.80	4.00
Match total	8.50	8.80	9.83
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.40
Opponent cards	2.10	2.50
Match total	3.70	4.90	3.68
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Tim Robinson 114 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.39league 3.58

Red cards0.15league 0.10

Cards 5+42%league 38%

Fouls22.6league 21.9

Penalties0.16league 0.17

Home wins48%league 51%

Crystal Palace5 with this referee

Record1-2-2 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.6 Pens for · against0 · 1

D4 Jan 25H · Chelsea1–10
D23 Nov 24A · Aston Villa2–22
L21 Oct 24A · Nottingham Forest0–13
L21 Oct 23A · Newcastle0–43
W1 Apr 23H · Leicester2–13

Brighton4 with this referee

Record0-1-3 Cards · opp.3.3 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L19 Apr 25A · Brentford2–44
L25 Jan 25H · Everton0–14
L17 Dec 23A · Arsenal0–23
D4 Nov 23A · Everton1–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.