Crystal Palace vs Liverpool – 27 Sep 2025

Premier League Gameweek 6 Sat, Sep 27 · 15:00 Selhurst Park, London

Crystal Palace 5th · 9 pts · 5 played DDWDW

2–1Full time

Liverpool 1st · 15 pts · 5 played WWWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Liverpool were slight favourites.

Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (93 vs 77). Liverpool usually keep the ball (60% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Crystal Palace had 7 days of rest, Liverpool 7.1 and had to travel 286 km.

Away travel286 kmRest days7 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Crystal Palace24%

Draw25%

Liverpool51%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.77

Crystal Palace26%

Draw26%

Liverpool48%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.61

Crystal Palace25%

Draw25%

Liverpool50%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.76

Crystal Palace19%

Draw22%

Liverpool59%

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.99

Crystal Palace25%

Draw26%

Liverpool49%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.62

Over 2.5 56% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeChris Kavanagh

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 132

Team strength

Crystal Palace

Liverpool

77 L90 StrengthIn forecast 93

64 Current StrengthIn forecast 84

64 AttackIn forecast 85

54 DefenceIn forecast 84

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Crystal Palace

Attack—

Defense risk—

Liverpool

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Crystal Palace

Liverpool

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

0.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.70 xGVia Att/Def 1.39

0.94 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.80

-0.50 Goals minus xGContext +0.81

60% Scored inContext 100%

60% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.40 ShotsContext 14.20

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

37% On target shareContext 34%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

68% Box shareContext 63%

11% ConversionContext 16%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.25

11.00 Shots allowedContext 8.60

2.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.25

2.80 BlocksContext 4.00

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.00

80% Save rateContext 44%

42% PossessionIn forecast 63%

365 PassesContext 508

295 Accurate passesContext 431

81% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.06 Team ratingContext 7.01

10.40 FoulsContext 9.80

10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.71

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.26

-0.46 Goals minus xGContext +0.29

70% Scored inContext 100%

60% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.50 ShotsContext 14.80

5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

40% On target shareContext 30%

8.60 Shots in the boxContext 10.60

67% Box shareContext 71%

10% ConversionContext 14%

2.17 OffsidesContext 1.38

10.20 Shots allowedContext 11.70

2.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.78

3.30 BlocksContext 3.44

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

71% Save rateContext 63%

46% PossessionIn forecast 60%

390 PassesContext 519

313 Accurate passesContext 446

80% Pass accuracyContext 86%

7.06 Team ratingContext 7.00

9.70 FoulsContext 9.50

9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Crystal Palace

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Liverpool

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel286 km131 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Crystal Palace	Liverpool
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Sep	7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	286 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	131 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Crystal Palace Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1D. Henderson(G)

6A. Guéhi 5M. Lacroix 26Chris Richards

3T. Mitchell 18Daichi Kamada 20A. Wharton 2D. Muñoz

10Yeremy Pino 7I. Sarr

14J. Mateta

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Liverpool Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Becker(G)

6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5I. Konaté 12C. Bradley

10A. Mac Allister 38R. Gravenberch

7F. Wirtz 8D. Szoboszlai 11Mohamed Salah

9A. Isak

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Crystal Palace Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Liverpool Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Crystal Palace-0.6 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Liverpool+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Crystal Palace · Home 1.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-2-0
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 0.50

Liverpool · Away 3.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

1 Crystal Palace wins3 draws6 Liverpool wins

Goals per game0.50 – 2.00 Over 2.540% Both scored40% Clean sheets20% · 50%

25 May 2025Liverpool1–1Crystal Palace
5 Oct 2024Crystal Palace0–1Liverpool
14 Apr 2024Liverpool0–1Crystal Palace
9 Dec 2023Crystal Palace1–2Liverpool
25 Feb 2023Crystal Palace0–0Liverpool
15 Aug 2022Liverpool1–1Crystal Palace

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Crystal Palace	Liverpool	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	2.20
Conceded per game	0.40	1.00
Match goals	1.60	3.20	2.94
Over 1.5	60%	60%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	56%
Over 3.5	0%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	58%
Clean sheets	60%	40%
Failed to score	40%	0%
Games	5	5

	Crystal Palace	Liverpool	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	2.20
Conceded per game	0.40	1.00
Match goals	1.60	3.20	2.94
Over 1.5	60%	60%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	56%
Over 3.5	0%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	58%
Clean sheets	60%	40%
Failed to score	40%	0%
Games	5	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Crystal Palace	Liverpool	League
Corners
Corners won	3.40	5.60
Corners conceded	7.00	5.40
Match total	10.40	11.00	9.71
Over 8.5	60% 3/5	80% 4/5
Over 9.5	60% 3/5	60% 3/5
Over 10.5	60% 3/5	60% 3/5
Cards
Cards	2.60	2.00
Opponent cards	2.20	2.40
Match total	4.80	4.40	3.71
Over 3.5	80% 4/5	80% 4/5
Over 4.5	80% 4/5	40% 2/5

	Crystal Palace	Liverpool	League
Corners
Corners won	4.38	5.22
Corners conceded	5.38	4.44
Match total	9.76	9.66	9.71
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.70
Opponent cards	2.20	2.10
Match total	3.90	3.80	3.71
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Chris Kavanagh 132 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.89league 3.57

Red cards0.13league 0.16

Cards 5+36%league 39%

Fouls21.7league 22.4

Penalties0.25league 0.24

Home wins39%league 47%

Crystal Palace7 with this referee

Record4-2-1 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.7 Pens for · against0 · 0

W11 May 25A · Tottenham2–01
W14 Apr 24A · Liverpool1–01
D30 Mar 24A · Nottingham Forest1–11
W30 Sep 23A · Manchester United1–02
L1 Oct 22H · Chelsea1–21

Liverpool17 with this referee

Record11-3-3 Cards · opp.1.1 · 1.8 Pens for · against2 · 1

W31 Aug 25H · Arsenal1–02
L6 Apr 25A · Fulham2–30
W26 Feb 25H · Newcastle2–00
D14 Jan 25A · Nottingham Forest1–11
W1 Dec 24H · Manchester City2–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.