Crystal Palace vs Tottenham – 28 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 18 Sun, Dec 28 · 16:30 Selhurst Park, London

Crystal Palace 9th · 26 pts · 17 played LWWLL

0–1Full time

Tottenham 14th · 22 pts · 17 played LDWLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Crystal Palace were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Crystal Palace. Crystal Palace had 7.9 days of rest, Tottenham 8 and had to travel 0 km.

Away travel0 kmRest days7.9 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Crystal Palace46%

Draw26%

Tottenham28%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.25

Crystal Palace46%

Draw26%

Tottenham27%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.15

Crystal Palace47%

Draw26%

Tottenham28%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.21

Crystal Palace38%

Draw26%

Tottenham35%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.40

Crystal Palace46%

Draw26%

Tottenham28%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.18

Over 2.5 55% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeJarred Gillett

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 94

Team strength

Crystal Palace

Tottenham

73 L90 StrengthIn forecast 69

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

64 AttackIn forecast 56

54 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Crystal Palace

Attack—

Defense risk—

Tottenham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Crystal Palace

Tottenham

1.24 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.53

1.12 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.35

1.65 xGVia Att/Def 0.96

1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35

-0.41 Goals minus xGContext +0.57

71% Scored inContext 82%

41% Clean sheetsContext 29%

11.65 ShotsContext 9.88

4.18 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.29

36% On target shareContext 33%

8.63 Shots in the boxContext 7.31

70% Box shareContext 71%

11% ConversionContext 16%

2.20 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.29 Shots allowedContext 11.65

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.29

3.21 BlocksContext 2.63

2.73 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.27

65% Save rateContext 71%

42% PossessionIn forecast 52%

366 PassesContext 420

283 Accurate passesContext 348

77% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.84

10.12 FoulsContext 11.35

9.94 Fouls sufferedContext 8.59

1.76 Yellow cardsContext 2.65

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 17 and 17 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.66 xGVia Att/Def 1.32

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.14

-0.36 Goals minus xGContext +0.58

80% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.70 ShotsContext 11.20

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

33% On target shareContext 38%

10.44 Shots in the boxContext 8.89

73% Box shareContext 74%

10% ConversionContext 17%

2.70 OffsidesContext 1.44

9.90 Shots allowedContext 11.20

4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

3.00 BlocksContext 2.90

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

61% Save rateContext 56%

46% PossessionIn forecast 50%

397 PassesContext 399

314 Accurate passesContext 325

79% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.76

10.30 FoulsContext 11.10

8.90 Fouls sufferedContext 8.40

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Crystal Palace

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km544 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Tottenham

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Crystal Palace	Tottenham
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Dec	8Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	544 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	4	4.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Crystal Palace Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1D. Henderson(G)

6A. Guéhi 5M. Lacroix 8J. Lerma

3T. Mitchell 19W. Hughes 20A. Wharton 17N. Clyne

10Yeremy Pino 55J. Devenny

14J. Mateta

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Tottenham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1G. Vicario(G)

24D. Spence 37M. van de Ven 4K. Danso 23Pedro Porro

14A. Gray 30R. Bentancur

39R. Kolo Muani 15L. Bergvall 20M. Kudus

9Richarlison

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Crystal Palace Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Tottenham Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Crystal Palace-0.7 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Tottenham+0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Crystal Palace · Home 1.25points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 2-4-2
Scored: 1.13
Conceded: 1.25

Tottenham · Away 1.75points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 4-2-2
Scored: 1.88
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Crystal Palace	Tottenham
Leeds	L 1–4 A	W 2–1 A
Manchester City	L 0–3 H	W 2–0 A
Fulham	W 2–1 A	L 1–2 H
Burnley	W 1–0 A	W 3–0 H
Manchester United	L 1–2 H	D 2–2 H
Wolves	W 2–0 A	D 1–1 H
Brighton	D 0–0 H	D 2–2 A
Brentford	W 2–0 H	W 2–0 H
Arsenal	L 0–1 A	L 1–4 A
Bournemouth	D 3–3 H	L 0–1 H
Everton	L 1–2 A	W 3–0 A
Liverpool	W 2–1 H	L 1–2 H
West Ham	W 2–1 A	W 3–0 A
Aston Villa	W 3–0 A	L 1–2 H
Nottingham Forest	D 1–1 H	L 0–3 A
Chelsea	D 0–0 A	L 0–1 H
Points	25 of 48 · 1.56 per game	21 of 48 · 1.31 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Crystal Palace wins1 draws6 Tottenham wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.80 Over 2.560% Both scored40% Clean sheets30% · 30%

11 May 2025Tottenham0–2Crystal Palace
27 Oct 2024Crystal Palace1–0Tottenham
2 Mar 2024Tottenham3–1Crystal Palace
27 Oct 2023Crystal Palace1–2Tottenham
6 May 2023Tottenham1–0Crystal Palace
4 Jan 2023Crystal Palace0–4Tottenham

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Crystal Palace	Tottenham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.24	1.53
Conceded per game	1.12	1.35
Match goals	2.35	2.88	2.89
Over 1.5	71%	88%
Over 2.5	53%	71%	55%
Over 3.5	12%	24%
Both teams scored	47%	53%	58%
Clean sheets	41%	29%
Failed to score	29%	18%
Games	17	17

	Crystal Palace	Tottenham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.30
Conceded per game	1.40	1.80
Match goals	2.60	3.10	2.89
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	80%	55%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	58%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Crystal Palace	Tottenham	League
Corners
Corners won	3.76	6.00
Corners conceded	5.29	5.25
Match total	9.05	11.25	9.92
Over 8.5	47% 8/17	69% 11/16
Over 9.5	47% 8/17	63% 10/16
Over 10.5	41% 7/17	56% 9/16
Cards
Cards	1.76	2.76
Opponent cards	1.88	1.59
Match total	3.64	4.35	3.86
Over 3.5	65% 11/17	65% 11/17
Over 4.5	53% 9/17	53% 9/17

	Crystal Palace	Tottenham	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	4.80
Corners conceded	3.90	4.90
Match total	8.60	9.70	9.92
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	3.10
Opponent cards	1.30	2.00
Match total	3.00	5.10	3.86
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jarred Gillett 94 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.66league 3.71

Red cards0.11league 0.11

Cards 5+37%league 38%

Fouls20.2league 21.5

Penalties0.22league 0.20

Home wins40%league 48%

Crystal Palace6 with this referee

Record2-2-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

D18 Oct 25H · Bournemouth3–31
L12 Apr 25A · Manchester City2–53
D1 Sep 24A · Chelsea1–12
W6 May 24H · Manchester United4–01
L25 Nov 23A · Luton1–21

Tottenham12 with this referee

Record6-0-6 Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.1 Pens for · against0 · 2 Reds1

L1 Nov 25H · Chelsea0–14
W13 Sep 25A · West Ham3–01
L26 Feb 25H · Manchester City0–13
W2 Feb 25A · Brentford2–01
L15 Sep 24H · Arsenal0–15

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.