Crystal Palace
Attack—
Defense risk—
Crystal Palace
13th · 42 pts · 31 played
WLWDW
0–0Full time
West Ham
17th · 32 pts · 32 played
LWDLW
Our take
Crystal Palace were slight favourites.
Crystal Palace were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 60). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for West Ham. Crystal Palace had 8.3 days of rest, West Ham 10 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days8.3 · 10Matches / 14d1 · 1
Crystal Palace46%
Draw25%
West Ham29%
Crystal Palace48%
Draw26%
West Ham26%
Crystal Palace47%
Draw25%
West Ham27%
Crystal Palace38%
Draw26%
West Ham36%
Crystal Palace45%
Draw26%
West Ham29%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeDarren England
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 118
Team strength
Crystal PalaceWest Ham
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
64
AttackIn forecast
68
54
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWest Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Crystal PalaceWest Ham
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
1.16
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.78
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
-0.43
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
71%
Scored inContext
69%
35%
Clean sheetsContext
16%
11.65
ShotsContext
10.38
3.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.83
32%
On target shareContext
33%
8.63
Shots in the boxContext
7.54
73%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.22
11.35
Shots allowedContext
15.28
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.34
3.11
BlocksContext
4.67
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.69
71%
Save rateContext
69%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
395
PassesContext
371
308
Accurate passesContext
294
78%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.80
10.90
FoulsContext
11.00
9.58
Fouls sufferedContext
10.59
2.03
Yellow cardsContext
1.72
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
-0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
80%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.10
ShotsContext
10.50
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
29%
On target shareContext
35%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.22
71%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
15%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.63
9.40
Shots allowedContext
15.00
4.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.22
BlocksContext
4.70
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
82%
Save rateContext
74%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
470
PassesContext
355
391
Accurate passesContext
276
83%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.98
14.50
FoulsContext
10.70
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Crystal Palace
Rest8.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
West Ham
Rest10 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Crystal Palace |
West Ham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.3Premier League 2025-2026, 12 Apr | 10Premier League 2025-2026, 10 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.8 | 4.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Crystal Palace
Confirmed XI
1D. Henderson(G)
23J. Canvot
5M. Lacroix
26Chris Richards
3T. Mitchell
8J. Lerma
19W. Hughes
2D. Muñoz
10Yeremy Pino
11B. Johnson
22J. Strand Larsen
West Ham
Confirmed XI
1M. Hermansen(G)
12E. Diouf
4A. Disasi
15K. Mavropanos
2K. Walker-Peters
7C. Summerville
18Mateus Fernandes
28T. Souček
20J. Bowen
19Pablo
11V. Castellanos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Crystal Palace
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
West Ham
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Crystal Palace-1.5 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- West Ham+1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Crystal Palace · Home
1.19points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-7-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.19
West Ham · Away
1.00points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-8
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.81
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Crystal Palace | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Leeds | D 0–0 HL 1–4 A | L 1–2 A |
| Tottenham | W 3–1 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Manchester United | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Wolves | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A | W 4–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Burnley | L 2–3 HW 1–0 A | W 2–0 AW 3–2 H |
| Brighton | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Nottingham Forest | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Chelsea | L 1–3 HD 0–0 A | L 2–3 AL 1–5 H |
| Sunderland | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | W 3–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Aston Villa | D 0–0 HW 3–0 A | L 0–2 AL 2–3 H |
| Fulham | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Manchester City | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Brentford | W 2–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Bournemouth | D 3–3 H | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Everton | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Liverpool | W 2–1 H | L 2–5 AL 0–2 H |
| Points | 39 of 90 · 1.30 per game | 32 of 93 · 1.03 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
5 Crystal Palace wins2 draws3 West Ham wins
Goals per game2.20 – 1.80
Over 2.570%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets10% · 10%
- 20 Sep 2025West Ham1–2Crystal Palace
- 18 Jan 2025West Ham0–2Crystal Palace
- 24 Aug 2024Crystal Palace0–2West Ham
- 21 Apr 2024Crystal Palace5–2West Ham
- 3 Dec 2023West Ham1–1Crystal Palace
- 29 Apr 2023Crystal Palace4–3West Ham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Crystal Palace | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.16 | 1.78 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 3.03 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 91% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 59% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 16% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 56% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 35% | 16% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 31% | |
| Games | 31 | 32 |
| Crystal Palace | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.90 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Crystal Palace | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.19 | 5.19 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.81 | 6.42 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 11.61 | 10.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 16/31 | 77% 24/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 13/31 | 71% 22/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 10/31 | 68% 21/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.81 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.06 | 1.88 | |
| Match total | 4.16 | 3.69 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 22/31 | 53% 17/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 58% 18/31 | 28% 9/32 | |
| Crystal Palace | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 6.40 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 10.80 | 10.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 3.90 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Darren England 118 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.25league 3.76
Red cards0.12league 0.12
Cards 5+42%league 38%
Fouls22.2league 21.5
Penalties0.27league 0.21
Home wins44%league 42%
Crystal Palace14 with this referee
Record1-6-7
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 4
Reds1
- L25 Jan 26H · Chelsea1–34
- L14 Dec 25H · Manchester City0–32
- D17 Aug 25A · Chelsea0–03
- D25 May 25A · Liverpool1–10
- L16 Apr 25A · Newcastle0–53
West Ham8 with this referee
Record3-1-4
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.1
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- W7 Feb 26A · Burnley2–01
- L30 Nov 25H · Liverpool0–23
- L26 Apr 25A · Brighton2–31
- L15 Feb 25H · Brentford0–11
- D10 Mar 24H · Burnley2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Crystal Palace31 games · scored 35 · conceded 36
2
2
0-15
5
16-30
11
14
31-45
1
6
46-60
7
6
61-75
9
8
76-90
West Ham32 games · scored 40 · conceded 57
9
9
0-15
3
3
16-30
9
11
31-45
3
9
46-60
6
13
61-75
10
12
76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 15 · conceded 7
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
6
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
3
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
4
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
