Dinamo Zagreb
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Dinamo Zagreb47.9%fair odds 2.09
Draw24.0%fair odds 4.17
NEC Nijmegen28.1%fair odds 3.56
Expected goals1.82 – 1.35total 3.18
Likeliest score1–110.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
NEC Nijmegen
Baseline: average Eredivisie opponent
Attack Downlift
−15%
Expected goals
Baseline1.60Forecast1.35
Conceding Risk
+1%
Expected goals conceded
Baseline1.79Forecast1.82
Clean Sheet
−0.4 pp
Chance of conceding no goals
Baseline16.6%Forecast16.2%
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Dinamo Zagreb ↓ · NEC Nijmegen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Dinamo Zagreb goals, columns NEC Nijmegen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%9.21
- 2–19.4%10.66
- 1–07.1%14.16
- 1–27.0%14.33
- 2–06.9%14.44
- 2–26.4%15.74
- 3–15.7%17.57
- 0–15.1%19.55
- 0–04.7%21.16
- 3–04.2%23.80
Winning margin
12.0%
Dinamo Zagreb by 3+
fair 8.31
14.7%
Dinamo Zagreb by 2
fair 6.81
21.2%
Dinamo Zagreb by 1
fair 4.72
24.0%
Draw
fair 4.17
15.6%
NEC Nijmegen by 1
fair 6.40
8.1%
NEC Nijmegen by 2
fair 12.29
4.3%
NEC Nijmegen by 3+
fair 23.03
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
12%1
22%2
22%3
18%4
21%5+
Dinamo Zagreb goals
16%0
29%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
NEC Nijmegen goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Zagreb win | 47.9% | 47.7% | +0.2 pp |
| Draw | 24.0% | 24.6% | -0.6 pp |
| NEC Nijmegen win | 28.1% | 27.7% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 61.5% | 58.7% | +2.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 62.7% | 60.5% | +2.2 pp |
| Expected goals Dinamo Zagreb | 1.82 | 1.75 | +0.07 |
| Expected goals NEC Nijmegen | 1.35 | 1.29 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Dinamo Zagreb win47.9%2.09
- Draw24.0%4.17
- NEC Nijmegen win28.1%3.56
- Double chance Dinamo Zagreb or draw71.9%1.39
- Double chance Dinamo Zagreb or NEC Nijmegen76.0%1.32
- Double chance NEC Nijmegen or draw52.1%1.92
- Draw no bet Dinamo Zagreb63.0%1.59
- Draw no bet NEC Nijmegen37.0%2.70
Goals
- Over 0.595.3%1.05
- Over 1.583.1%1.20
- Over 2.561.5%1.63
- Over 3.539.2%2.55
- Over 4.521.5%4.65
- Under 1.516.9%5.92
- Under 2.538.5%2.60
- Under 3.560.8%1.64
Both teams to score
- Yes62.7%1.59
- No37.3%2.68
- Yes and over 2.551.9%1.93
- Dinamo Zagreb win and yes26.8%3.73
- Draw and yes19.2%5.20
- NEC Nijmegen win and yes16.6%6.01
Team goals
- Dinamo Zagreb over 0.583.8%1.19
- Dinamo Zagreb over 1.554.3%1.84
- Dinamo Zagreb over 2.527.5%3.64
- NEC Nijmegen over 0.574.2%1.35
- NEC Nijmegen over 1.539.2%2.55
- NEC Nijmegen over 2.515.6%6.43
- Dinamo Zagreb clean sheet25.8%3.88
- NEC Nijmegen clean sheet16.2%6.17
- Dinamo Zagreb win to nil21.1%4.74
- NEC Nijmegen win to nil11.5%8.72
Handicap
- Dinamo Zagreb −1.526.7%3.74
- Dinamo Zagreb −2.512.0%8.31
- NEC Nijmegen +1.573.3%1.36
- NEC Nijmegen +2.588.0%1.14
- NEC Nijmegen −1.512.5%8.01
- Dinamo Zagreb +1.587.5%1.14
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored36
Favourite won66.7%
Avg chance given to result46.2%
1X2 Brier0.484
Over 2.5 called right63.9%
BTTS called right52.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 39.4% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 12 | 44.1% | 58.3% |
| 50–60% | 10 | 54.5% | 70.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.3% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 72.5% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 36 of 36 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4838 | 0.5043 |
| Avg chance given to result | 46.2% | 47.3% |
| Favourite won | 66.7% | 63.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 18 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 18 of 36 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.