UEFA Europa League Matchday 3 Thu, Oct 22 · 17:45 Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb 14th · 4 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
NEC Nijmegen 27th · 1 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Dinamo Zagreb are slight favourites.

Dinamo Zagreb are the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for NEC Nijmegen. Dinamo Zagreb have 6.9 days of rest, NEC Nijmegen 3.9 and have to travel 998 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel998 kmRest days6.9 · 3.9Matches / 14d1 · 3
Dinamo Zagreb48%
Draw24%
NEC Nijmegen28%
Expected goals 1.82 – 1.35
Dinamo Zagreb51%
Draw26%
NEC Nijmegen24%
Expected goals 1.67 – 1.07
Dinamo Zagreb48%
Draw24%
NEC Nijmegen28%
Expected goals 1.82 – 1.35
Dinamo Zagreb40%
Draw25%
NEC Nijmegen35%
Expected goals 1.62 – 1.52
Dinamo Zagreb48%
Draw25%
NEC Nijmegen28%
Expected goals 1.75 – 1.29
Over 2.5 61% Both score 63% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 7 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Zagreb)
11°CLight rain
  • Precipitation 47%
  • Wind 5 km/h
  • Humidity 69%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Dinamo Zagreb and NEC Nijmegen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Dinamo ZagrebNEC Nijmegen
43 L90 StrengthIn forecast 32
43 Current StrengthIn forecast 32
33 AttackIn forecast 37
44 DefenceIn forecast 33
— Form indexContext 18
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Dinamo Zagreb

Attack—
Defense risk—

NEC Nijmegen

Attack−15%
Defense risk+1%

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Dinamo ZagrebNEC Nijmegen
0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50
0.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 3.00
0.67 xGVia Att/Def —
1.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
-0.17 Goals minus xGContext —
50% Scored inContext 50%
100% Clean sheetsContext 0%
10.00 ShotsContext 14.50
2.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00
20% On target shareContext 41%
6.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.00
66% Box shareContext 53%
5% ConversionContext 3%
— OffsidesContext —
12.50 Shots allowedContext 9.50
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
— BlocksContext 2.00
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.50
100% Save rateContext 33%
40% PossessionIn forecast 52%
410 PassesContext 493
338 Accurate passesContext 423
82% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.82 Team ratingContext 6.37
17.00 FoulsContext 16.50
11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20
1.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.94
1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39
+0.70 Goals minus xGContext -0.84
90% Scored inContext 70%
30% Clean sheetsContext 0%
17.50 ShotsContext 12.00
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80
23% On target shareContext 32%
10.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.60
62% Box shareContext 59%
9% ConversionContext 9%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.43
12.75 Shots allowedContext 12.70
4.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30
5.83 BlocksContext 2.80
3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10
64% Save rateContext 59%
53% PossessionIn forecast 52%
537 PassesContext 442
454 Accurate passesContext 358
85% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.90 Team ratingContext 6.44
12.22 FoulsContext 11.70
12.67 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Dinamo Zagreb
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 57 · 4 pts vs 3.2 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected
  • W15 OctH · Anderlecht1–01.5 xPts
  • D16 SepA · Hapoel Beer Sheva0–01.4 xPts
NEC Nijmegen
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel998 km177 km in 14d
Schedule load27%Moderate
Form 18 · 4 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected
  • D18 OctH · Fortuna Sittard2–21.9 xPts
  • D15 OctH · Levski Sofia1–11.8 xPts
  • D10 OctA · Ajax1–10.7 xPts
  • D20 SepH · GO Ahead Eagles1–11.7 xPts
  • L17 SepA · Juventus0–50.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Dinamo Zagreb NEC Nijmegen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 27
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct3.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km998 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km177 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 12 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one14.12.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Dinamo Zagreb Last XI · not confirmed
4-1-4-1 · vs Anderlecht (H) 1–0, 15 Oct
24D. Kotarski(G)
22M. Vinlöf 6S. Radeljić 36Sergi Domínguez 15N. Galešić
27J. Mišić
11A. Hoxha 17L. Ivanušec 10L. Stojković 23Iker Almena
9D. Beljo
NEC Nijmegen Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Fortuna Sittard (H) 2–2, 18 Oct
1G. Crettaz(G)
24D. Fonville 22A. Kaplan 21T. Storm
35Jamiro Monteiro 18D. Geiger 6D. Nejašmić 34Kevin Kers
99Clement Bischoff 20N. Lebreton
30B. Linssen

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Dinamo Zagreb No reported absences
NEC Nijmegen No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Dinamo Zagreb+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • NEC Nijmegen+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Dinamo Zagreb · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
0.00
NEC Nijmegen · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
5.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Dinamo ZagrebNEC NijmegenForecast
Scored per game 0.500.50
Conceded per game 0.003.00
Match goals 0.503.50 3.18
Over 1.5 0%100%
Over 2.5 0%50% 61%
Over 3.5 0%50%
Both teams scored 0%50% 63%
Clean sheets 100%0%
Failed to score 50%50%
Games22
Dinamo ZagrebNEC NijmegenForecast
Scored per game 1.901.10
Conceded per game 1.502.20
Match goals 3.403.30 3.18
Over 1.5 80%100%
Over 2.5 70%70% 61%
Over 3.5 60%50%
Both teams scored 70%70% 63%
Clean sheets 30%0%
Failed to score 10%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Dinamo ZagrebNEC NijmegenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.006.00
Corners conceded4.001.00
Match total8.007.009.76
Over 8.50% 0/20% 0/1
Over 9.50% 0/20% 0/1
Over 10.50% 0/20% 0/1
Cards
Cards1.001.00
Opponent cards1.000.50
Match total2.001.503.76
Over 3.550% 1/20% 0/2
Over 4.50% 0/20% 0/2
Dinamo ZagrebNEC NijmegenLeague
Corners
Corners won5.894.00
Corners conceded4.783.88
Match total10.677.889.76
Over 8.556% 5/938% 3/8
Over 9.544% 4/925% 2/8
Over 10.544% 4/925% 2/8
Cards
Cards2.001.50
Opponent cards1.701.40
Match total3.702.903.76
Over 3.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Over 4.540% 4/100% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Dinamo Zagreb2 games · scored 1 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1 76-90
NEC Nijmegen2 games · scored 1 · conceded 6
1 0-15
1 16-30
2 31-45
46-60
1 1 61-75
1 76-90
Dinamo Zagreb10 games · scored 19 · conceded 15
3 2 0-15
2 5 16-30
4 1 31-45
2 4 46-60
2 61-75
6 3 76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 22
3 3 0-15
3 3 16-30
6 31-45
1 3 46-60
1 5 61-75
3 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures UEFA Europa League

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