Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München – 4 Oct 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 6 Sat, Oct 4 · 17:30 Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt am Main

Eintracht Frankfurt 6th · 9 pts · 5 played WWLLW

0–3Full time

Bayern München 1st · 15 pts · 5 played WWWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bayern München were slight favourites.

Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 70). Absences weigh more on Bayern München. Eintracht Frankfurt had 7 days of rest, Bayern München 7.9 and had to travel 304 km.

Away travel304 kmRest days7 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 1

Eintracht Frankfurt24%

Draw23%

Bayern München53%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.93

Eintracht Frankfurt24%

Draw25%

Bayern München51%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.68

Eintracht Frankfurt23%

Draw23%

Bayern München54%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.92

Eintracht Frankfurt18%

Draw21%

Bayern München61%

Expected goals 1.11 – 2.16

Eintracht Frankfurt24%

Draw25%

Bayern München50%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.68

Over 2.5 61% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Frankfurt am Main)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyDaniel Siebert

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 103

Team strength

Eintracht Frankfurt

Bayern München

70 L90 StrengthIn forecast 91

48 Current StrengthIn forecast 93

54 AttackIn forecast 96

37 DefenceIn forecast 90

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Eintracht Frankfurt

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bayern München

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Eintracht Frankfurt

Bayern München

3.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 4.40

2.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60

1.88 xGVia Att/Def 2.58

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.58

+1.52 Goals minus xGContext +1.82

100% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 60%

15.80 ShotsContext 19.20

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 10.00

38% On target shareContext 52%

10.40 Shots in the boxContext 12.40

64% Box shareContext 64%

22% ConversionContext 23%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.75

13.20 Shots allowedContext 10.20

6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.40

1.80 BlocksContext 3.60

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.80

53% Save rateContext 75%

59% PossessionIn forecast 63%

501 PassesContext 627

425 Accurate passesContext 560

85% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.95 Team ratingContext 7.41

9.20 FoulsContext 10.60

11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

2.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.90

2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.62 xGVia Att/Def 2.38

1.49 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.64

+1.28 Goals minus xGContext +1.52

100% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.80 ShotsContext 19.20

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.70

39% On target shareContext 45%

8.70 Shots in the boxContext 12.40

67% Box shareContext 63%

23% ConversionContext 20%

1.43 OffsidesContext 2.17

12.00 Shots allowedContext 9.60

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.10

1.80 BlocksContext 2.70

3.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.40

58% Save rateContext 77%

53% PossessionIn forecast 63%

458 PassesContext 633

381 Accurate passesContext 565

83% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.93 Team ratingContext 7.32

9.80 FoulsContext 8.70

11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Eintracht Frankfurt

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km396 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Bayern München

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel304 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Eintracht Frankfurt	Bayern München
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 27 Sep	7.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 26 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	304 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	396 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	14.9	14

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Eintracht Frankfurt Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

40Kauã Santos(G)

21N. Brown 3A. Theate 4R. Koch 24A. Buta

15E. Skhiri 16H. Larsson

19J. Bahoya 42C. Uzun 20R. Doan

9J. Burkardt

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Bayern München Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1M. Neuer(G)

27K. Laimer 4J. Tah 2D. Upamecano 23S. Boey

8L. Goretzka 6J. Kimmich

14L. Díaz 7S. Gnabry 17M. Olise

9H. Kane

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Eintracht Frankfurt Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Bayern München Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Eintracht Frankfurt+0.9 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Bayern München-0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Eintracht Frankfurt · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 3.50
Conceded: 2.50

Bayern München · Away 3.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-0
Scored: 3.50
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Eintracht Frankfurt	Bayern München
1899 Hoffenheim	W 3–1 A	W 4–1 A
Werder Bremen	W 4–1 H	W 4–0 H
Points	6 of 6 · 3.00 per game	6 of 6 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Eintracht Frankfurt wins2 draws4 Bayern München wins

Goals per game1.63 – 2.38 Over 2.575% Both scored75% Clean sheets0% · 25%

23 Feb 2025Bayern München4–0Eintracht Frankfurt
6 Oct 2024Eintracht Frankfurt3–3Bayern München
27 Apr 2024Bayern München2–1Eintracht Frankfurt
9 Dec 2023Eintracht Frankfurt5–1Bayern München
28 Jan 2023Bayern München1–1Eintracht Frankfurt
5 Aug 2022Eintracht Frankfurt1–6Bayern München

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Eintracht Frankfurt	Bayern München	Forecast
Scored per game	3.40	4.40
Conceded per game	2.60	0.60
Match goals	6.00	5.00	3.17
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	61%
Over 3.5	100%	100%
Both teams scored	100%	40%	61%
Clean sheets	0%	60%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	5	5

	Eintracht Frankfurt	Bayern München	Forecast
Scored per game	3.40	4.40
Conceded per game	2.60	0.60
Match goals	6.00	5.00	3.17
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	61%
Over 3.5	100%	100%
Both teams scored	100%	40%	61%
Clean sheets	0%	60%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	5	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Eintracht Frankfurt	Bayern München	League
Corners
Corners won	5.75	5.20
Corners conceded	3.25	5.20
Match total	9.00	10.40	10.53
Over 8.5	75% 3/4	80% 4/5
Over 9.5	50% 2/4	80% 4/5
Over 10.5	25% 1/4	40% 2/5
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.80
Opponent cards	2.80	1.40
Match total	5.00	4.20	4.49
Over 3.5	60% 3/5	60% 3/5
Over 4.5	40% 2/5	40% 2/5

	Eintracht Frankfurt	Bayern München	League
Corners
Corners won	4.44	5.20
Corners conceded	3.56	4.10
Match total	8.00	9.30	10.53
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.90
Opponent cards	2.00	1.40
Match total	3.90	3.30	4.49
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniel Siebert Germany · 103 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.54league 4.22

Red cards0.22league 0.28

Cards 5+51%league 42%

Fouls23.7league 22.7

Penalties0.24league 0.46

Home wins42%league 40%

Eintracht Frankfurt6 with this referee

Record3-1-2 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.7 Pens for · against0 · 0

L5 Apr 25A · Werder Bremen0–23
D20 Jan 24A · SV Darmstadt 982–21
L12 Feb 23A · 1.FC Köln0–32
W22 Oct 22A · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–12
W17 Sep 22A · VfB Stuttgart3–10

Bayern München12 with this referee

Record7-3-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.9 Pens for · against2 · 2

D15 Feb 25A · Bayer Leverkusen0–03
W25 Jan 25A · SC Freiburg2–12
W20 Dec 24H · RB Leipzig5–15
W25 Aug 24A · VfL Wolfsburg3–23
W27 Aug 23H · FC Augsburg3–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.