Eintracht Frankfurt
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Eintracht Frankfurt
6th · 9 pts · 5 played
WWLLW
0–3Full time
Bayern München
1st · 15 pts · 5 played
WWWWW
Eintracht Frankfurt24.0%fair odds 4.17
Draw23.2%fair odds 4.31
Bayern München52.8%fair odds 1.89
Expected goals1.24 – 1.93total 3.17
Likeliest score1–110.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Bayern München
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Eintracht Frankfurt ↓ · Bayern München → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Eintracht Frankfurt goals, columns Bayern München goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.6%9.44
- 1–29.7%10.32
- 0–27.8%12.82
- 0–17.6%13.23
- 2–16.3%16.00
- 1–36.2%16.05
- 2–26.0%16.60
- 0–35.0%19.95
- 0–04.7%21.14
- 1–04.7%21.35
Winning margin
3.2%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 3+
fair 31.05
6.7%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 2
fair 14.82
14.0%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 1
fair 7.15
23.2%
Draw
fair 4.31
22.0%
Bayern München by 1
fair 4.55
16.2%
Bayern München by 2
fair 6.16
14.6%
Bayern München by 3+
fair 6.85
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
12%1
22%2
22%3
18%4
21%5+
Eintracht Frankfurt goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
Bayern München goals
15%0
28%1
27%2
17%3
13%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 24.0% | 24.4% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 23.2% | 25.4% | -2.2 pp |
| Bayern München win | 52.8% | 50.2% | +2.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 61.4% | 52.8% | +8.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 61.3% | 55.1% | +6.2 pp |
| Expected goals Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.24 | 1.11 | +0.14 |
| Expected goals Bayern München | 1.93 | 1.68 | +0.24 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Eintracht Frankfurt win24.0%4.17
- Draw23.2%4.31
- Bayern München win52.8%1.89
- Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or draw47.2%2.12
- Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or Bayern München76.8%1.30
- Double chance Bayern München or draw76.0%1.32
- Draw no bet Eintracht Frankfurt31.2%3.20
- Draw no bet Bayern München68.8%1.45
Goals
- Over 0.595.3%1.05
- Over 1.583.0%1.20
- Over 2.561.4%1.63
- Over 3.539.1%2.56
- Over 4.521.4%4.67
- Under 1.517.0%5.89
- Under 2.538.6%2.59
- Under 3.560.9%1.64
Both teams to score
- Yes61.3%1.63
- No38.7%2.59
- Yes and over 2.550.7%1.97
- Eintracht Frankfurt win and yes14.1%7.07
- Draw and yes18.5%5.41
- Bayern München win and yes28.7%3.48
Team goals
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 0.571.1%1.41
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.535.3%2.83
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 2.513.0%7.69
- Bayern München over 0.585.5%1.17
- Bayern München over 1.557.4%1.74
- Bayern München over 2.530.4%3.29
- Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet14.5%6.87
- Bayern München clean sheet28.9%3.47
- Eintracht Frankfurt win to nil9.8%10.19
- Bayern München win to nil24.1%4.15
Handicap
- Eintracht Frankfurt −1.510.0%10.03
- Eintracht Frankfurt −2.53.2%31.05
- Bayern München +1.590.0%1.11
- Bayern München +2.596.8%1.03
- Bayern München −1.530.8%3.24
- Eintracht Frankfurt +1.569.2%1.45
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored50
Favourite won52.0%
Avg chance given to result42.5%
1X2 Brier0.573
Over 2.5 called right62.0%
BTTS called right60.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 9 | 38.2% | 44.4% |
| 40–50% | 13 | 45.5% | 38.5% |
| 50–60% | 12 | 54.7% | 41.7% |
| 60–70% | 11 | 66.4% | 81.8% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.8% | 50.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 87.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 32 of 50 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5355 | 0.5509 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.4% | 42.7% |
| Favourite won | 56.3% | 59.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 32 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 50 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.