Eintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Eintracht Frankfurt
7th · 42 pts · 29 played
DWLDW
1–3Full time
RB Leipzig
4th · 56 pts · 29 played
WLWWW
Our take
RB Leipzig were slight favourites.
RB Leipzig were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 55). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for RB Leipzig. Eintracht Frankfurt had 7.1 days of rest, RB Leipzig 7.1 and had to travel 293 km.
Away travel293 kmRest days7.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Eintracht Frankfurt31%
Draw24%
RB Leipzig45%
Eintracht Frankfurt34%
Draw27%
RB Leipzig39%
Eintracht Frankfurt30%
Draw24%
RB Leipzig47%
Eintracht Frankfurt24%
Draw22%
RB Leipzig53%
Eintracht Frankfurt31%
Draw25%
RB Leipzig44%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 65%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Frankfurt am Main)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyBastian Dankert
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 77
Team strength
Eintracht FrankfurtRB Leipzig
55
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
54
AttackIn forecast
76
37
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Eintracht FrankfurtRB Leipzig
1.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.93
1.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.24
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.87
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.59
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
90%
Scored inContext
90%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
11.45
ShotsContext
15.24
4.41
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.76
39%
On target shareContext
38%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.97
70%
Box shareContext
72%
16%
ConversionContext
13%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.28
12.03
Shots allowedContext
11.48
4.68
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.72
2.96
BlocksContext
3.36
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.65
61%
Save rateContext
68%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
496
PassesContext
491
418
Accurate passesContext
415
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.81
Team ratingContext
7.05
9.55
FoulsContext
9.41
9.66
Fouls sufferedContext
10.14
1.66
Yellow cardsContext
1.52
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.98
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
90%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.70
ShotsContext
14.80
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
41%
On target shareContext
41%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
11.50
72%
Box shareContext
77%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.33
12.40
Shots allowedContext
10.60
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.89
BlocksContext
2.50
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.30
77%
Save rateContext
66%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
537
PassesContext
495
469
Accurate passesContext
417
87%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.92
Team ratingContext
7.12
8.10
FoulsContext
9.90
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km591 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
RB Leipzig
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel293 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Eintracht Frankfurt |
RB Leipzig |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 11 Apr | 7.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 11 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 293 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 591 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
23M. Zetterer(G)
3A. Theate
4R. Koch
5A. Amenda
21N. Brown
6O. Højlund
16H. Larsson
8F. Chaïbi
25A. Kalimuendo
29Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab
9J. Burkardt
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
35M. Finkgräfe
5E. Bitshiabu
16L. Klostermann
17R. Baku
13N. Seiwald
7A. Nusa
14C. Baumgartner
20F. Ouédraogo
49Y. Diomande
40Rômulo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Eintracht Frankfurt
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
RB Leipzig
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Eintracht Frankfurt+1.6 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- RB Leipzig-1.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Eintracht Frankfurt · Home
1.71points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-4
- Scored
- 1.79
- Conceded
- 1.43
RB Leipzig · Away
1.71points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-4
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.29
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Eintracht Frankfurt | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| 1.FC Köln | D 2–2 HW 4–3 A | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H |
| FC St. Pauli | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Bayern München | L 2–3 AL 0–3 H | L 1–5 HL 0–6 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–0 HW 6–4 A | W 1–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Union Berlin | D 1–1 AL 3–4 H | L 1–3 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A | L 1–3 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–3 HW 3–1 A | W 5–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Werder Bremen | D 3–3 AW 4–1 H | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 2–3 A | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 3–3 H | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 HW 6–0 A |
| Points | 42 of 84 · 1.50 per game | 53 of 84 · 1.89 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Eintracht Frankfurt wins3 draws3 RB Leipzig wins
Goals per game1.56 – 1.44
Over 2.567%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets44% · 22%
- 6 Dec 2025RB Leipzig6–0Eintracht Frankfurt
- 26 Apr 2025Eintracht Frankfurt4–0RB Leipzig
- 15 Dec 2024RB Leipzig2–1Eintracht Frankfurt
- 18 May 2024Eintracht Frankfurt2–2RB Leipzig
- 13 Jan 2024RB Leipzig0–1Eintracht Frankfurt
- 25 Feb 2023RB Leipzig2–1Eintracht Frankfurt
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Eintracht Frankfurt | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.86 | 1.93 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.86 | 1.24 | |
| Match goals | 3.72 | 3.17 | 3.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 66% | 66% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 52% | 41% | |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 55% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.00 | 3.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Eintracht Frankfurt | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.31 | 5.73 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.42 | 4.46 | |
| Match total | 8.73 | 10.19 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 14/26 | 65% 17/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 12/26 | 58% 15/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 23% 6/26 | 38% 10/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.76 | 1.52 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.07 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.83 | 3.42 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 15/29 | 41% 12/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 34% 10/29 | 24% 7/29 | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 5.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 9.55 | 9.56 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.80 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bastian Dankert Germany · 77 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.43league 3.76
Red cards0.16league 0.18
Cards 5+31%league 38%
Fouls23.4league 20.4
Penalties0.25league 0.37
Home wins47%league 44%
Eintracht Frankfurt6 with this referee
Record2-4-0
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D7 Dec 24H · FC Augsburg2–22
- W10 Mar 24H · 1899 Hoffenheim3–12
- D27 Aug 23A · FSV Mainz 051–14
- W18 Feb 23H · Werder Bremen2–01
- D2 Apr 22H · SpVgg Greuther Fürth0–01
RB Leipzig8 with this referee
Record5-2-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against3 · 0
- W1 Mar 26A · Hamburger SV2–12
- D10 May 25A · Werder Bremen0–03
- D25 Jan 25H · Bayer Leverkusen2–22
- L4 Nov 23A · FSV Mainz 050–21
- W27 Aug 22H · VfL Wolfsburg2–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Eintracht Frankfurt29 games · scored 54 · conceded 54
4
8
0-15
11
7
16-30
10
6
31-45
10
7
46-60
8
8
61-75
11
18
76-90
RB Leipzig29 games · scored 56 · conceded 36
7
0-15
8
5
16-30
12
7
31-45
12
8
46-60
9
5
61-75
8
11
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 19 · conceded 11
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
5
46-60
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
