Eintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 50). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for SC Freiburg. Eintracht Frankfurt had 7 days of rest, SC Freiburg 7 and had to travel 243 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel243 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Eintracht Frankfurt34%
Draw24%
SC Freiburg41%
Eintracht Frankfurt35%
Draw26%
SC Freiburg38%
Eintracht Frankfurt35%
Draw24%
SC Freiburg40%
Eintracht Frankfurt27%
Draw23%
SC Freiburg49%
Eintracht Frankfurt34%
Draw24%
SC Freiburg42%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Frankfurt am Main)
24°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 13 km/h
- Humidity 33%
Referee · GermanySören Storks
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 35
Team strength
Eintracht Frankfurt
SC Freiburg
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
64
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
54
AttackIn forecast
63
37
DefenceIn forecast
73
50
Form indexContext
82
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Eintracht FrankfurtSC Freiburg
2.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.33
2.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.33
1.91
xGVia Att/Def
2.07
1.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.50
+0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+1.26
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
15.00
ShotsContext
18.00
5.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.33
36%
On target shareContext
35%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.67
72%
Box shareContext
54%
16%
ConversionContext
19%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.00
18.00
Shots allowedContext
9.33
7.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
6.00
BlocksContext
4.33
5.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
73%
Save rateContext
83%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
449
PassesContext
466
363
Accurate passesContext
400
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.03
Team ratingContext
7.46
9.67
FoulsContext
10.00
11.67
Fouls sufferedContext
16.00
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.82
100%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.10
ShotsContext
12.10
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
39%
On target shareContext
38%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
62%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
17%
2.63
OffsidesContext
1.78
15.90
Shots allowedContext
12.60
6.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
4.67
BlocksContext
4.20
4.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
71%
Save rateContext
60%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
460
PassesContext
424
383
Accurate passesContext
355
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.95
10.00
FoulsContext
11.00
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Eintracht Frankfurt
DLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km65 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 50 · 4 pts vs 4.0 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected
SC Freiburg
WWW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel243 km838 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 82 · 9 pts vs 4.8 for an average club · +3.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Eintracht Frankfurt |
SC Freiburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 12 Sep | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 12 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 243 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 65 km | 838 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21.1 | 22.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
26K. Kosugi
3L. Brassier
4R. Koch
2E. Baum
42C. Uzun
25R. Onyedika
15N. Aséko Nkili
20R. Doan
9J. Burkardt
11Y. Ebnoutalib
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1M. Backhaus(G)
33J. Makengo
3P. Lienhart
28M. Ginter
29P. Treu
16Y. Engelhardt
8M. Eggestein
7D. Scherhant
14Y. Suzuki
19J. Beste
31I. Matanović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Eintracht Frankfurt
Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Freiburg
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Eintracht Frankfurt-1.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- SC Freiburg+1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Eintracht Frankfurt · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
SC Freiburg · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
5 Eintracht Frankfurt wins4 draws1 SC Freiburg wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.10
Over 2.560%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets30% · 10%
- 1 Mar 2026Eintracht Frankfurt2–0SC Freiburg
- 19 Oct 2025SC Freiburg2–2Eintracht Frankfurt
- 17 May 2025SC Freiburg1–3Eintracht Frankfurt
- 14 Jan 2025Eintracht Frankfurt4–1SC Freiburg
- 18 Feb 2024SC Freiburg3–3Eintracht Frankfurt
- 24 Sep 2023Eintracht Frankfurt0–0SC Freiburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Eintracht Frankfurt | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.33 | 3.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.67 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 3.67 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 67% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.70 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 80% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Eintracht Frankfurt | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.66 | 9.33 | 11.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 3.33 | 4.34 | 3.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 3.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 11.11 | 7.67 | 11.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sören Storks Germany · 35 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.29league 3.18
Red cards0.23league 0.11
Cards 5+51%league 18%
Fouls20.7league 22.4
Penalties0.23league 0.14
Home wins46%league 54%
Eintracht Frankfurt2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D6 Feb 26A · Union Berlin1–13
- W2 Mar 24A · 1. FC Heidenheim2–14
SC Freiburg4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D1 Nov 25A · Union Berlin0–01
- L30 Mar 25H · Union Berlin1–23
- W11 Jan 25H · Holstein Kiel3–22
- D4 May 24A · 1.FC Köln0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Eintracht Frankfurt3 games · scored 7 · conceded 8
4
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
76-90
SC Freiburg3 games · scored 10 · conceded 1
0-15
4
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
3
1
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 18 · conceded 22
5
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
5
4
61-75
2
7
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 21 · conceded 16
4
0-15
9
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
