Eintracht Frankfurt
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Eintracht Frankfurt
6th · 6 pts · 3 played
WWL
3–4Full time
Union Berlin
16th · 3 pts · 3 played
WLL
Eintracht Frankfurt66.4%fair odds 1.51
Draw20.0%fair odds 5.00
Union Berlin13.7%fair odds 7.32
Expected goals2.19 – 0.90total 3.09
Likeliest score2–010.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Union Berlin
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Eintracht Frankfurt ↓ · Union Berlin → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Eintracht Frankfurt goals, columns Union Berlin goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.9%9.13
- 2–19.8%10.19
- 1–09.5%10.50
- 1–19.4%10.59
- 3–08.0%12.52
- 3–17.2%13.96
- 0–05.0%19.82
- 2–24.4%22.72
- 4–04.4%22.87
- 1–24.0%24.86
Winning margin
23.1%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 3+
fair 4.33
20.1%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 2
fair 4.97
23.1%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 1
fair 4.32
20.0%
Draw
fair 5.00
9.2%
Union Berlin by 1
fair 10.87
3.4%
Union Berlin by 2
fair 29.62
1.1%
Union Berlin by 3+
fair 91.47
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
Eintracht Frankfurt goals
11%0
25%1
27%2
20%3
18%4+
Union Berlin goals
41%0
37%1
16%2
5%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 66.4% | 64.8% | +1.6 pp |
| Draw | 20.0% | 20.9% | -0.9 pp |
| Union Berlin win | 13.7% | 14.3% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.6% | 57.0% | +2.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.1% | 51.8% | +1.3 pp |
| Expected goals Eintracht Frankfurt | 2.19 | 2.09 | +0.10 |
| Expected goals Union Berlin | 0.90 | 0.88 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Eintracht Frankfurt win66.4%1.51
- Draw20.0%5.00
- Union Berlin win13.7%7.32
- Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or draw86.3%1.16
- Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or Union Berlin80.0%1.25
- Double chance Union Berlin or draw33.6%2.97
- Draw no bet Eintracht Frankfurt82.9%1.21
- Draw no bet Union Berlin17.1%5.85
Goals
- Over 0.595.0%1.05
- Over 1.581.8%1.22
- Over 2.559.6%1.68
- Over 3.537.2%2.69
- Over 4.519.9%5.02
- Under 1.518.2%5.50
- Under 2.540.4%2.47
- Under 3.562.8%1.59
Both teams to score
- Yes53.1%1.88
- No46.9%2.13
- Yes and over 2.543.6%2.29
- Eintracht Frankfurt win and yes30.6%3.27
- Draw and yes14.9%6.70
- Union Berlin win and yes7.5%13.32
Team goals
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 0.588.8%1.13
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.564.3%1.56
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 2.537.4%2.67
- Union Berlin over 0.559.2%1.69
- Union Berlin over 1.522.6%4.42
- Union Berlin over 2.56.2%16.05
- Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet40.8%2.45
- Union Berlin clean sheet11.2%8.93
- Eintracht Frankfurt win to nil35.7%2.80
- Union Berlin win to nil6.2%16.24
Handicap
- Eintracht Frankfurt −1.543.2%2.31
- Eintracht Frankfurt −2.523.1%4.33
- Union Berlin +1.556.8%1.76
- Union Berlin +2.576.9%1.30
- Union Berlin −1.54.5%22.37
- Eintracht Frankfurt +1.595.5%1.05
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored33
Favourite won48.5%
Avg chance given to result42.6%
1X2 Brier0.567
Over 2.5 called right72.7%
BTTS called right63.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 37.9% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 9 | 45.1% | 22.2% |
| 50–60% | 8 | 54.4% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 66.1% | 85.7% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.2% | 50.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 87.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 15 of 33 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4795 | 0.4785 |
| Avg chance given to result | 46.8% | 46.4% |
| Favourite won | 53.3% | 66.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 15 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓RB Leipzig 3–1 1.FC Köln58·23·19
- ✓Hamburger SV 2–1 1. FC Heidenheim45·26·28
- ✓FC Augsburg 1–4 FSV Mainz 0537·26·37
- ✓1899 Hoffenheim 1–4 Bayern München12·18·70
- ✗Werder Bremen 0–3 SC Freiburg48·25·27
- ✓VfB Stuttgart 2–0 FC St. Pauli63·21·16
- ✗Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–4 Werder Bremen39·26·35
- ✗FC St. Pauli 2–1 FC Augsburg36·27·37
- ✓Bayern München 5–0 Hamburger SV87·9·4
- ✗Union Berlin 2–4 1899 Hoffenheim44·26·30
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 33 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.