Eintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Eintracht Frankfurt
6th · 6 pts · 3 played
WWL
3–4Full time
Union Berlin
16th · 3 pts · 3 played
WLL
Our take
Eintracht Frankfurt were clear favourites.
Eintracht Frankfurt were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 40). Eintracht Frankfurt usually keep the ball (50% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Eintracht Frankfurt had 8.8 days of rest, Union Berlin 8 and had to travel 424 km.
Away travel424 kmRest days8.8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Eintracht Frankfurt66%
Draw20%
Union Berlin14%
Eintracht Frankfurt64%
Draw21%
Union Berlin15%
Eintracht Frankfurt65%
Draw21%
Union Berlin14%
Eintracht Frankfurt59%
Draw23%
Union Berlin18%
Eintracht Frankfurt65%
Draw21%
Union Berlin14%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Frankfurt am Main)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySven Jablonski
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 81
Team strength
Eintracht FrankfurtUnion Berlin
72
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
54
AttackIn forecast
42
37
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Eintracht FrankfurtUnion Berlin
2.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.67
1.60
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.16
+1.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
100%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.33
ShotsContext
12.67
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
33%
On target shareContext
32%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
64%
Box shareContext
72%
20%
ConversionContext
11%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.67
14.67
Shots allowedContext
13.33
5.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.67
1.33
BlocksContext
4.00
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
65%
Save rateContext
60%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
34%
428
PassesContext
293
356
Accurate passesContext
210
83%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.69
9.33
FoulsContext
13.67
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.33
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
+0.79
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
80%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.40
ShotsContext
10.60
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
41%
On target shareContext
33%
8.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
70%
Box shareContext
73%
20%
ConversionContext
13%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.13
11.20
Shots allowedContext
13.10
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
1.70
BlocksContext
3.11
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
73%
Save rateContext
60%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
35%
425
PassesContext
308
348
Accurate passesContext
228
82%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.90
FoulsContext
11.00
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km315 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Union Berlin
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel424 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Eintracht Frankfurt |
Union Berlin |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 12 Sep | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 424 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 315 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
40Kauã Santos(G)
21N. Brown
3A. Theate
4R. Koch
34P. Collins
42C. Uzun
16H. Larsson
8F. Chaïbi
19J. Bahoya
17S. Wahi
20R. Doan
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
4Diogo Leite
14L. Querfeld
5D. Doekhi
39D. Köhn
19J. Haberer
8R. Khedira
28C. Trimmel
10Ilyas Ansah
7O. Burke
23A. Ilić
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Eintracht Frankfurt
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Union Berlin
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Eintracht Frankfurt+1.1 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Union Berlin-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Eintracht Frankfurt · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Union Berlin · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Eintracht Frankfurt | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 3–1 A | L 2–4 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Eintracht Frankfurt wins2 draws3 Union Berlin wins
Goals per game1.13 – 1.00
Over 2.538%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets38% · 38%
- 9 Mar 2025Eintracht Frankfurt1–2Union Berlin
- 27 Oct 2024Union Berlin1–1Eintracht Frankfurt
- 30 Mar 2024Eintracht Frankfurt0–0Union Berlin
- 4 Nov 2023Union Berlin0–3Eintracht Frankfurt
- 19 Mar 2023Union Berlin2–0Eintracht Frankfurt
- 1 Oct 2022Eintracht Frankfurt2–0Union Berlin
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Eintracht Frankfurt | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.67 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 2.67 | |
| Match goals | 4.33 | 4.00 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 67% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.67 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 2.67 | |
| Match goals | 4.33 | 4.00 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 67% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Eintracht Frankfurt | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 6.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 12.34 | 10.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.67 | 4.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.89 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.89 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 10.00 | 10.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 2.90 | 4.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sven Jablonski Germany · 81 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.90league 4.21
Red cards0.09league 0.33
Cards 5+42%league 48%
Fouls19.9league 22.8
Penalties0.20league 0.55
Home wins42%league 42%
Eintracht Frankfurt7 with this referee
Record2-5-0
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W14 Jan 25H · SC Freiburg4–11
- D10 Feb 24H · VfL Bochum1–12
- W4 Nov 23A · Union Berlin3–01
- D15 Apr 23H · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–11
- D28 Jan 23A · Bayern München1–11
Union Berlin8 with this referee
Record1-1-6
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 2
- L15 Feb 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–20
- D14 Sep 24A · RB Leipzig0–03
- L20 Apr 24H · Bayern München1–50
- L16 Dec 23A · VfL Bochum0–32
- L4 Nov 23H · Eintracht Frankfurt0–30
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Eintracht Frankfurt3 games · scored 8 · conceded 5
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Union Berlin3 games · scored 4 · conceded 8
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 23 · conceded 11
1
3
0-15
6
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
8
61-75
2
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
1
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
6
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
