Eintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Eintracht Frankfurt
8th · 43 pts · 33 played
WLDLL
2–2Full time
VfB Stuttgart
4th · 61 pts · 33 played
WLDDW
Our take
VfB Stuttgart were slight favourites.
VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 50). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for VfB Stuttgart. Eintracht Frankfurt had 7.8 days of rest, VfB Stuttgart 7 and had to travel 152 km.
Away travel152 kmRest days7.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Eintracht Frankfurt27%
Draw22%
VfB Stuttgart51%
Eintracht Frankfurt31%
Draw27%
VfB Stuttgart42%
Eintracht Frankfurt26%
Draw22%
VfB Stuttgart52%
Eintracht Frankfurt20%
Draw20%
VfB Stuttgart59%
Eintracht Frankfurt27%
Draw24%
VfB Stuttgart49%
Over 2.5 68%
Both score 67%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Frankfurt am Main)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Welz
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 55
Team strength
Eintracht FrankfurtVfB Stuttgart
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
54
AttackIn forecast
70
37
DefenceIn forecast
58
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Eintracht FrankfurtVfB Stuttgart
1.79
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.09
1.91
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.42
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.74
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.55
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
91%
Scored inContext
91%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.64
ShotsContext
14.91
4.52
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.76
39%
On target shareContext
39%
7.94
Shots in the boxContext
9.73
69%
Box shareContext
65%
15%
ConversionContext
14%
2.05
OffsidesContext
2.44
12.33
Shots allowedContext
12.21
4.81
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.52
3.10
BlocksContext
3.29
2.97
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
61%
Save rateContext
70%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
489
PassesContext
510
413
Accurate passesContext
430
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.96
9.58
FoulsContext
9.48
9.61
Fouls sufferedContext
11.79
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.76
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.76
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.50
ShotsContext
15.40
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
39%
On target shareContext
38%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
66%
Box shareContext
60%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.57
11.90
Shots allowedContext
12.30
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
3.63
BlocksContext
3.00
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
72%
Save rateContext
66%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
513
PassesContext
491
446
Accurate passesContext
410
87%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.94
8.30
FoulsContext
10.10
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km355 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
VfB Stuttgart
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel152 km113 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Eintracht Frankfurt |
VfB Stuttgart |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 8 May | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 9 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 152 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 355 km | 113 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 105 | 104.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
23M. Zetterer(G)
5A. Amenda
4R. Koch
13R. Kristensen
21N. Brown
27M. Götze
15E. Skhiri
20R. Doan
19J. Bahoya
42C. Uzun
25A. Kalimuendo
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
7M. Mittelstädt
24J. Chabot
3R. Hendriks
10C. Führich
6A. Stiller
30Chema Andrés
18J. Leweling
28N. Nartey
26D. Undav
9E. Demirović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Eintracht Frankfurt
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
VfB Stuttgart
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Eintracht Frankfurt+1.1 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- VfB Stuttgart-1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Eintracht Frankfurt · Home
1.50points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-6
- Scored
- 1.69
- Conceded
- 1.56
VfB Stuttgart · Away
1.38points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-6
- Scored
- 2.44
- Conceded
- 1.94
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Eintracht Frankfurt | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | L 2–3 AD 3–3 H | L 0–2 HD 3–3 A |
| Hamburger SV | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | W 4–0 HL 1–2 A |
| FC Augsburg | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | W 5–2 AW 3–2 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–3 HL 0–6 A | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | W 4–0 HW 3–0 A |
| 1.FC Köln | D 2–2 HW 4–3 A | W 3–1 HW 2–1 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H |
| FC St. Pauli | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| SC Freiburg | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Bayern München | L 2–3 AL 0–3 H | L 2–4 AL 0–5 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–0 HW 6–4 A | W 3–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Union Berlin | D 1–1 AL 3–4 H | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A | W 3–1 HW 4–1 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–3 HW 3–1 A | D 3–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Werder Bremen | D 3–3 AW 4–1 H | D 1–1 HW 4–0 A |
| Points | 43 of 96 · 1.34 per game | 58 of 96 · 1.81 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
4 Eintracht Frankfurt wins2 draws3 VfB Stuttgart wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored78%
Clean sheets11% · 11%
- 13 Jan 2026VfB Stuttgart3–2Eintracht Frankfurt
- 29 Mar 2025Eintracht Frankfurt1–0VfB Stuttgart
- 10 Nov 2024VfB Stuttgart2–3Eintracht Frankfurt
- 13 Apr 2024VfB Stuttgart3–0Eintracht Frankfurt
- 25 Nov 2023Eintracht Frankfurt1–2VfB Stuttgart
- 11 Mar 2023Eintracht Frankfurt1–1VfB Stuttgart
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Eintracht Frankfurt | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.79 | 2.09 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.91 | 1.42 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 3.52 | 3.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 73% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 52% | 52% | |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 61% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 9% | 9% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.70 | 3.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Eintracht Frankfurt | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.47 | 5.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 9.14 | 9.66 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 17/30 | 56% 18/32 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 15/30 | 53% 17/32 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 8/30 | 34% 11/32 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.79 | 1.82 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.64 | |
| Match total | 3.79 | 3.46 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 16/33 | 42% 14/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 11/33 | 33% 11/33 | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 10.78 | 10.30 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.90 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Welz Germany · 55 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.25league 3.69
Red cards0.15league 0.17
Cards 5+44%league 37%
Fouls23.2league 20.2
Penalties0.24league 0.35
Home wins45%league 44%
Eintracht Frankfurt1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W21 Sep 24H · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–01
VfB Stuttgart7 with this referee
Record4-0-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 3.4
Pens for · against1 · 3
Reds1
- L25 Apr 25H · 1. FC Heidenheim0–10
- L15 Feb 25H · VfL Wolfsburg1–23
- W6 Dec 24H · Union Berlin3–21
- L24 Aug 24A · SC Freiburg1–31
- W4 May 24H · Bayern München3–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Eintracht Frankfurt33 games · scored 59 · conceded 63
5
8
0-15
11
8
16-30
11
9
31-45
11
9
46-60
9
10
61-75
12
19
76-90
VfB Stuttgart33 games · scored 69 · conceded 47
5
6
0-15
12
6
16-30
14
11
31-45
9
5
46-60
7
3
61-75
22
16
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 20 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
4
5
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
