Eintracht Frankfurt
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Eintracht Frankfurt
8th · 43 pts · 33 played
WLDLL
2–2Full time
VfB Stuttgart
4th · 61 pts · 33 played
WLDDW
Eintracht Frankfurt26.7%fair odds 3.75
Draw22.3%fair odds 4.48
VfB Stuttgart51.0%fair odds 1.96
Expected goals1.44 – 2.04total 3.49
Likeliest score1–19.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
VfB Stuttgart
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Eintracht Frankfurt ↓ · VfB Stuttgart → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Eintracht Frankfurt goals, columns VfB Stuttgart goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–19.5%10.53
- 1–29.2%10.85
- 2–26.7%15.02
- 2–16.5%15.35
- 0–26.4%15.67
- 1–36.3%15.93
- 0–15.8%17.34
- 2–34.5%22.05
- 0–34.3%23.00
- 1–03.9%25.40
Winning margin
4.4%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 3+
fair 22.90
7.7%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 2
fair 12.92
14.6%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 1
fair 6.86
22.3%
Draw
fair 4.48
20.8%
VfB Stuttgart by 1
fair 4.80
15.5%
VfB Stuttgart by 2
fair 6.45
14.7%
VfB Stuttgart by 3+
fair 6.81
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
10%1
19%2
22%3
19%4
27%5+
Eintracht Frankfurt goals
24%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
VfB Stuttgart goals
13%0
26%1
27%2
18%3
15%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 26.7% | 26.8% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 22.3% | 24.0% | -1.7 pp |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 51.0% | 49.2% | +1.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 67.7% | 60.3% | +7.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 67.0% | 61.5% | +5.5 pp |
| Expected goals Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.44 | 1.30 | +0.15 |
| Expected goals VfB Stuttgart | 2.04 | 1.82 | +0.22 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Eintracht Frankfurt win26.7%3.75
- Draw22.3%4.48
- VfB Stuttgart win51.0%1.96
- Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or draw49.0%2.04
- Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or VfB Stuttgart77.7%1.29
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw73.3%1.36
- Draw no bet Eintracht Frankfurt34.4%2.91
- Draw no bet VfB Stuttgart65.6%1.52
Goals
- Over 0.596.5%1.04
- Over 1.586.8%1.15
- Over 2.567.7%1.48
- Over 3.546.1%2.17
- Over 4.527.2%3.67
- Under 1.513.2%7.55
- Under 2.532.3%3.10
- Under 3.553.9%1.85
Both teams to score
- Yes67.0%1.49
- No33.0%3.03
- Yes and over 2.557.5%1.74
- Eintracht Frankfurt win and yes17.3%5.79
- Draw and yes18.8%5.32
- VfB Stuttgart win and yes30.9%3.23
Team goals
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 0.576.4%1.31
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.542.3%2.36
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 2.517.7%5.64
- VfB Stuttgart over 0.587.0%1.15
- VfB Stuttgart over 1.560.6%1.65
- VfB Stuttgart over 2.533.5%2.98
- Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet13.0%7.72
- VfB Stuttgart clean sheet23.6%4.24
- Eintracht Frankfurt win to nil9.4%10.61
- VfB Stuttgart win to nil20.1%4.99
Handicap
- Eintracht Frankfurt −1.512.1%8.26
- Eintracht Frankfurt −2.54.4%22.90
- VfB Stuttgart +1.587.9%1.14
- VfB Stuttgart +2.595.6%1.05
- VfB Stuttgart −1.530.2%3.31
- Eintracht Frankfurt +1.569.8%1.43
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored297
Favourite won55.6%
Avg chance given to result43.1%
1X2 Brier0.567
Over 2.5 called right62.3%
BTTS called right60.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 38 | 38.3% | 34.2% |
| 40–50% | 95 | 45.1% | 45.3% |
| 50–60% | 75 | 55.1% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 47 | 64.7% | 66.0% |
| 70–80% | 29 | 74.5% | 79.3% |
| 80%+ | 13 | 87.2% | 76.9% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 240 of 297 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5628 | 0.5582 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.3% | 42.7% |
| Favourite won | 56.7% | 55.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 240 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 297 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.