La Liga Gameweek 36 Sun, May 16 · 16:00 Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche
Elche 18th · 7 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Athletic Club 11th · 9 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel587 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Elche—%
Draw—%
Athletic Club—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Elche)

Forecast from 1 May

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Elche and Athletic Club. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

ElcheAthletic Club
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
44 Current StrengthIn forecast 53
39 AttackIn forecast 51
51 DefenceIn forecast 64
56 Form indexContext 70
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Elche

Attack—
Defense risk—

Athletic Club

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

ElcheAthletic Club
1.22 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.86
1.07 xGVia Att/Def 1.48
1.85 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27
+0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.48
67% Scored inContext 57%
22% Clean sheetsContext 57%
11.00 ShotsContext 14.71
4.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
38% On target shareContext 29%
6.44 Shots in the boxContext 9.14
55% Box shareContext 65%
11% ConversionContext 7%
1.83 OffsidesContext 3.33
14.89 Shots allowedContext 10.43
5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.17
3.63 BlocksContext 1.80
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00
60% Save rateContext 83%
51% PossessionIn forecast 54%
478 PassesContext 494
408 Accurate passesContext 420
85% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.64 Team ratingContext 6.88
13.44 FoulsContext 11.43
13.33 Fouls sufferedContext 11.71
2.33 Yellow cardsContext 2.14
0.11 Red cardsContext 0.14
This league season, per match · 9 and 7 games
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
0.98 xGVia Att/Def 1.43
1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17
+0.22 Goals minus xGContext -0.43
70% Scored inContext 60%
20% Clean sheetsContext 40%
10.20 ShotsContext 14.60
3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.89
38% On target shareContext 30%
6.44 Shots in the boxContext 9.80
55% Box shareContext 69%
12% ConversionContext 7%
1.83 OffsidesContext 2.50
14.40 Shots allowedContext 10.10
5.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44
3.44 BlocksContext 1.71
3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
64% Save rateContext 72%
50% PossessionIn forecast 50%
463 PassesContext 448
391 Accurate passesContext 372
84% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.65 Team ratingContext 6.77
14.10 FoulsContext 12.70
14.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Elche
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km692 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 56 · 6 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Villarreal0–00.7 xPts
  • D11 OctH · Celta Vigo0–01.5 xPts
  • W18 SepA · Espanyol3–11.1 xPts
  • L15 SepH · Real Madrid2–30.5 xPts
  • D12 SepA · Athletic Club1–10.8 xPts
Athletic Club
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel587 km154 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Valencia0–01.4 xPts
  • D19 SepH · Alaves0–01.6 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Elche1–12.0 xPts
  • W5 SepH · Atletico Madrid3–01.3 xPts
  • W30 AugA · Celta Vigo2–01.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Elche Athletic Club
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 9 May7La Liga 2026-2027, 9 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km587 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways692 km154 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Elche Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Villarreal (A) 0–0, 17 Oct
1M. Dituro(G)
11Germán Valera 3R. Revivo 23Víctor Chust 47J. Morcillo 2Buba Sangaré
18T. Lemar 8Marc Aguado 12Gonzalo Villar
21Lucas Cepeda 24A. Osorio
Athletic Club Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Valencia (A) 0–0, 17 Oct
1Unai Simón(G)
31J. Louis-Jean 14A. Laporte 4Aitor Paredes 15Hugo Rincón
16Ruíz de Galarreta 24Beñat Gerenabarrena
23Robert Navarro 28Peio Canales 7Álex Berenguer
9I. Williams

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Elche Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Athletic Club Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Elche · Home 0.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
0-1-3
Scored
1.00
Conceded
2.75
Athletic Club · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
0.67
Conceded
0.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentElcheAthletic Club
Celta Vigo D 0–0 H W 2–0 A
Barcelona L 0–5 H L 0–2 A
Points1 of 6 · 0.50 per game3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

2 Elche wins3 draws4 Athletic Club wins
Goals per game0.78 – 1.11 Over 2.533% Both scored44% Clean sheets44% · 33%
  • 12 Sep 2026Athletic Club1–1Elche
  • 20 Feb 2026Athletic Club2–1Elche
  • 19 Oct 2025Elche0–0Athletic Club
  • 28 May 2023Athletic Club0–1Elche
  • 11 Sep 2022Elche1–4Athletic Club
  • 3 Apr 2022Athletic Club2–1Elche

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

ElcheAthletic ClubForecast
Scored per game 1.221.00
Conceded per game 1.890.86
Match goals 3.111.86
Over 1.5 78%71%
Over 2.5 56%29%
Over 3.5 56%14%
Both teams scored 67%29%
Clean sheets 22%57%
Failed to score 33%43%
Games97
ElcheAthletic ClubForecast
Scored per game 1.201.00
Conceded per game 1.801.30
Match goals 3.002.30
Over 1.5 80%80%
Over 2.5 50%30%
Over 3.5 50%20%
Both teams scored 70%40%
Clean sheets 20%40%
Failed to score 30%40%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

ElcheAthletic ClubLeague
Corners
Corners won4.566.14
Corners conceded4.674.43
Match total9.2310.579.91
Over 8.533% 3/957% 4/7
Over 9.533% 3/957% 4/7
Over 10.533% 3/957% 4/7
Cards
Cards2.442.29
Opponent cards2.001.86
Match total4.444.154.73
Over 3.567% 6/943% 3/7
Over 4.556% 5/943% 3/7
ElcheAthletic ClubLeague
Corners
Corners won4.205.89
Corners conceded4.404.56
Match total8.6010.459.91
Over 8.530% 3/1056% 5/9
Over 9.530% 3/1056% 5/9
Over 10.530% 3/1056% 5/9
Cards
Cards2.601.80
Opponent cards2.201.70
Match total4.803.504.73
Over 3.570% 7/1040% 4/10
Over 4.560% 6/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Elche9 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
3 0-15
2 3 16-30
4 31-45
1 46-60
3 3 61-75
5 4 76-90
Athletic Club7 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
1 0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 61-75
2 1 76-90
Elche10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
3 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 4 31-45
1 1 46-60
3 3 61-75
5 4 76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
3 0-15
2 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 4 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Atletico Madrid Rayo Vallecano May 1616:00 Malaga Celta Vigo May 1616:00 Sevilla Villarreal May 1616:00 Levante Getafe May 1616:00 Espanyol Valencia May 1616:00 Real Madrid Racing Santander May 1616:00 Deportivo La Coruna Alaves May 1616:00 Real Sociedad Barcelona May 1616:00 Osasuna Real Betis May 1616:00 Elche Athletic Club May 1616:00