La Liga Gameweek 36 Sun, May 16 · 16:00 Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
Real Madrid 3rd · 21 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Racing Santander 16th · 8 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel339 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Real Madrid—%
Draw—%
Racing Santander—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Madrid)

Forecast from 1 May

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Real Madrid and Racing Santander. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Real MadridRacing Santander
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
89 Current StrengthIn forecast 41
89 AttackIn forecast 42
85 DefenceIn forecast 22
91 Form indexContext 34
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Madrid

Attack—
Defense risk—

Racing Santander

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real MadridRacing Santander
2.56 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.44
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.78
2.41 xGVia Att/Def 1.31
1.01 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.28
+0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.13
89% Scored inContext 67%
22% Clean sheetsContext 0%
17.56 ShotsContext 11.22
7.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.44
41% On target shareContext 40%
12.33 Shots in the boxContext 6.38
69% Box shareContext 54%
15% ConversionContext 13%
2.13 OffsidesContext 1.78
12.78 Shots allowedContext 16.33
4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.67
3.44 BlocksContext 3.56
3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.00
73% Save rateContext 61%
53% PossessionIn forecast 50%
528 PassesContext 437
476 Accurate passesContext 362
90% Pass accuracyContext 83%
7.17 Team ratingContext 6.62
8.44 FoulsContext 13.78
14.11 Fouls sufferedContext 14.78
2.11 Yellow cardsContext 2.67
0.22 Red cardsContext 0.11
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
2.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.60
2.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.47
1.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.17
+0.38 Goals minus xGContext +0.23
90% Scored inContext 70%
20% Clean sheetsContext 0%
16.90 ShotsContext 12.20
7.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80
43% On target shareContext 39%
12.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.56
71% Box shareContext 57%
16% ConversionContext 14%
2.00 OffsidesContext 1.80
14.20 Shots allowedContext 15.90
5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.30
3.80 BlocksContext 3.40
3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.63
75% Save rateContext 62%
50% PossessionIn forecast 50%
501 PassesContext 441
446 Accurate passesContext 367
89% Pass accuracyContext 83%
7.13 Team ratingContext 6.70
8.90 FoulsContext 13.40
13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 14.10
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.40
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Madrid
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km604 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 91 · 12 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Sevilla4–12.4 xPts
  • W14 OctA · AS Roma4–31.5 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Villarreal1–02.1 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Atletico Madrid1–21.7 xPts
  • W15 SepA · Elche3–22.3 xPts
Racing Santander
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel339 km742 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 34 · 4 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Osasuna0–21.1 xPts
  • D11 OctH · Valencia2–21.6 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Celta Vigo0–51.2 xPts
  • L16 SepA · Barcelona2–70.2 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Alaves2–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Real Madrid Racing Santander
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 9 May7La Liga 2026-2027, 9 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km339 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways604 km742 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Madrid Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Sevilla (H) 4–1, 18 Oct
1T. Courtois(G)
17Marc Cucurella 4D. Huijsen 16I. Konaté 8F. Valverde
14A. Tchouaméni 15A. Güler
25Y. Diomande 5J. Bellingham 9Endrick
10K. Mbappé
Racing Santander Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Osasuna (A) 0–2, 18 Oct
13Julen Agirrezabala(G)
17Jorge Salinas 24J. Belocian 5Pablo Ramón 2Álvaro Mantilla
18M. Prati 23Iván Martín
10Iñigo Vicente 8André Almeida 20Sergio Canales
21M. Zabiri

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Real Madrid Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Racing Santander Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Real Madrid · Home 3.00points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
5-0-0
Scored
3.40
Conceded
0.60
Racing Santander · Away 0.00points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
0-0-5
Scored
0.80
Conceded
3.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentReal MadridRacing Santander
Villarreal W 1–0 H D 2–2 H
Elche W 3–2 A W 3–2 H
Rayo Vallecano W 4–1 H L 2–3 A
Points9 of 9 · 3.00 per game4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Real MadridRacing SantanderForecast
Scored per game 2.561.44
Conceded per game 1.002.78
Match goals 3.564.22
Over 1.5 78%89%
Over 2.5 78%78%
Over 3.5 56%67%
Both teams scored 67%67%
Clean sheets 22%0%
Failed to score 11%33%
Games99
Real MadridRacing SantanderForecast
Scored per game 2.701.44
Conceded per game 1.202.78
Match goals 3.904.22
Over 1.5 80%89%
Over 2.5 80%78%
Over 3.5 60%67%
Both teams scored 70%67%
Clean sheets 20%0%
Failed to score 10%33%
Games109

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Real MadridRacing SantanderLeague
Corners
Corners won6.255.25
Corners conceded4.257.00
Match total10.5012.259.91
Over 8.563% 5/888% 7/8
Over 9.563% 5/888% 7/8
Over 10.563% 5/875% 6/8
Cards
Cards2.332.78
Opponent cards2.672.67
Match total5.005.454.73
Over 3.578% 7/989% 8/9
Over 4.567% 6/978% 7/9
Real MadridRacing SantanderLeague
Corners
Corners won6.305.00
Corners conceded5.006.56
Match total11.3011.569.91
Over 8.570% 7/1078% 7/9
Over 9.570% 7/1078% 7/9
Over 10.570% 7/1067% 6/9
Cards
Cards2.202.50
Opponent cards2.502.40
Match total4.704.904.73
Over 3.580% 8/1080% 8/10
Over 4.550% 5/1070% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Real Madrid9 games · scored 23 · conceded 9
2 0-15
6 1 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 1 61-75
7 3 76-90
Racing Santander9 games · scored 13 · conceded 25
2 3 0-15
4 3 16-30
4 7 31-45
2 1 46-60
1 3 61-75
8 76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
2 0-15
8 1 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 5 46-60
3 1 61-75
9 4 76-90
Racing Santander10 games · scored 17 · conceded 26
3 3 0-15
5 3 16-30
5 7 31-45
2 2 46-60
2 3 61-75
8 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Atletico Madrid Rayo Vallecano May 1616:00 Malaga Celta Vigo May 1616:00 Sevilla Villarreal May 1616:00 Levante Getafe May 1616:00 Espanyol Valencia May 1616:00 Real Madrid Racing Santander May 1616:00 Deportivo La Coruna Alaves May 1616:00 Real Sociedad Barcelona May 1616:00 Osasuna Real Betis May 1616:00 Elche Athletic Club May 1616:00