La Liga Gameweek 36 Sun, May 16 · 16:00 Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla
Sevilla 6th · 14 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Villarreal 12th · 9 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel584 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Sevilla—%
Draw—%
Villarreal—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Sevilla)

Forecast from 1 May

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Sevilla and Villarreal. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

SevillaVillarreal
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
50 Current StrengthIn forecast 65
48 AttackIn forecast 76
57 DefenceIn forecast 73
67 Form indexContext 79
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sevilla

Attack—
Defense risk—

Villarreal

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SevillaVillarreal
1.56 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.44
1.78 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.44
1.05 xGVia Att/Def 2.13
1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13
+0.51 Goals minus xGContext -0.69
100% Scored inContext 67%
22% Clean sheetsContext 11%
11.78 ShotsContext 16.33
4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.33
37% On target shareContext 39%
7.44 Shots in the boxContext 11.11
61% Box shareContext 68%
13% ConversionContext 9%
2.14 OffsidesContext 2.89
12.67 Shots allowedContext 12.00
5.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.44
3.29 BlocksContext 5.14
3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33
60% Save rateContext 77%
41% PossessionIn forecast 60%
344 PassesContext 573
267 Accurate passesContext 510
78% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.74 Team ratingContext 6.87
14.67 FoulsContext 11.11
12.89 Fouls sufferedContext 11.67
3.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.78
0.22 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
1.03 xGVia Att/Def 2.12
1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30
+0.37 Goals minus xGContext -0.52
90% Scored inContext 70%
20% Clean sheetsContext 10%
11.50 ShotsContext 16.50
4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00
36% On target shareContext 36%
7.10 Shots in the boxContext 11.00
59% Box shareContext 67%
12% ConversionContext 10%
2.13 OffsidesContext 2.90
12.60 Shots allowedContext 12.00
5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70
3.00 BlocksContext 4.63
3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29
60% Save rateContext 72%
42% PossessionIn forecast 59%
353 PassesContext 560
278 Accurate passesContext 493
79% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.72 Team ratingContext 6.86
15.20 FoulsContext 10.40
12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10
2.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sevilla
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,578 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 67 · 7 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +2.1 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Real Madrid1–40.4 xPts
  • D12 OctA · Levante3–31.2 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Barcelona1–30.5 xPts
  • W16 SepA · Deportivo La Coruna1–01.2 xPts
  • W11 SepH · Valencia1–01.7 xPts
Villarreal
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel584 km621 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 79 · 10 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected
  • D17 OctH · Elche0–02.1 xPts
  • W13 OctH · Napoli3–11.7 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Real Madrid0–10.7 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Levante3–11.9 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Malaga3–11.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Sevilla Villarreal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 9 May7La Liga 2026-2027, 9 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km584 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,578 km621 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sevilla Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Real Madrid (A) 1–4, 18 Oct
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
17G. Suazo 4Kike Salas 5A. López Gallo 2Juan Iglesias
24Y. Fofana 6L. Agoumé
20Félix Correia 10Peque Fernández 11R. Vargas
9R. Ure
Villarreal Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Elche (H) 0–0, 17 Oct
25P. Gulácsi(G)
23Sergi Cardona 2Logan Costa 8J. Foyth 3A. Freeman
10Alberto Moleiro 16Carlos Macia 14Santi Comesaña 11I. Akhomach
21T. Oluwaseyi 22Ayoze Pérez

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Sevilla Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Villarreal Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Sevilla · Home 1.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
2-0-2
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.75
Villarreal · Away 1.00points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
1-2-2
Scored
1.40
Conceded
1.40

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentSevillaVillarreal
Real Madrid L 1–4 A L 0–1 A
Levante D 3–3 A W 3–1 H
Deportivo La Coruna W 1–0 A L 2–3 H
Atletico Madrid L 1–3 H D 2–2 A
Points4 of 12 · 1.00 per game4 of 12 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

3 Sevilla wins3 draws4 Villarreal wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.70 Over 2.560% Both scored90% Clean sheets10% · 0%
  • 13 May 2026Villarreal2–3Sevilla
  • 23 Sep 2025Sevilla1–2Villarreal
  • 25 May 2025Villarreal4–2Sevilla
  • 23 Aug 2024Sevilla1–2Villarreal
  • 11 May 2024Villarreal3–2Sevilla
  • 3 Dec 2023Sevilla1–1Villarreal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

SevillaVillarrealForecast
Scored per game 1.561.44
Conceded per game 1.781.44
Match goals 3.332.89
Over 1.5 78%67%
Over 2.5 67%67%
Over 3.5 56%56%
Both teams scored 78%67%
Clean sheets 22%11%
Failed to score 0%33%
Games99
SevillaVillarrealForecast
Scored per game 1.401.60
Conceded per game 1.701.50
Match goals 3.103.10
Over 1.5 70%70%
Over 2.5 60%70%
Over 3.5 50%60%
Both teams scored 70%70%
Clean sheets 20%10%
Failed to score 10%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

SevillaVillarrealLeague
Corners
Corners won3.007.11
Corners conceded3.564.44
Match total6.5611.559.91
Over 8.522% 2/967% 6/9
Over 9.522% 2/967% 6/9
Over 10.511% 1/967% 6/9
Cards
Cards3.331.78
Opponent cards2.113.00
Match total5.444.784.73
Over 3.578% 7/978% 7/9
Over 4.556% 5/956% 5/9
SevillaVillarrealLeague
Corners
Corners won3.006.50
Corners conceded3.604.70
Match total6.6011.209.91
Over 8.520% 2/1060% 6/10
Over 9.520% 2/1060% 6/10
Over 10.510% 1/1060% 6/10
Cards
Cards3.101.70
Opponent cards2.002.90
Match total5.104.604.73
Over 3.570% 7/1080% 8/10
Over 4.550% 5/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Sevilla9 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
2 2 0-15
1 3 16-30
2 31-45
5 2 46-60
1 3 61-75
5 4 76-90
Villarreal9 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
1 0-15
2 1 16-30
5 6 31-45
1 1 46-60
1 1 61-75
4 3 76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
2 2 0-15
1 3 16-30
2 31-45
5 3 46-60
1 3 61-75
5 4 76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
2 0-15
4 16-30
3 5 31-45
1 2 46-60
2 1 61-75
6 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Atletico Madrid Rayo Vallecano May 1616:00 Malaga Celta Vigo May 1616:00 Sevilla Villarreal May 1616:00 Levante Getafe May 1616:00 Espanyol Valencia May 1616:00 Real Madrid Racing Santander May 1616:00 Deportivo La Coruna Alaves May 1616:00 Real Sociedad Barcelona May 1616:00 Osasuna Real Betis May 1616:00 Elche Athletic Club May 1616:00