Espanyol
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel295 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Espanyol—%
Draw—%
Valencia—%
Weather (Cornella de Llobregat)
Forecast from 1 May
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Espanyol and Valencia. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Espanyol
67%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Valencia
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Valencia
−0.42
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.08xG against1.50
-
Alert
Valencia
1.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Defence
-
Insight
Valencia
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Valencia
1.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Valencia
−0.42
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.08xG against1.50
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
EspanyolValencia
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
51
36
AttackIn forecast
39
51
DefenceIn forecast
52
31
Form indexContext
36
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisValencia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EspanyolValencia
1.22
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.37
89%
Scored inContext
44%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
12.67
ShotsContext
11.11
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
29%
On target shareContext
24%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
57%
Box shareContext
58%
10%
ConversionContext
6%
3.50
OffsidesContext
2.11
13.11
Shots allowedContext
15.11
5.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.11
3.00
BlocksContext
4.00
4.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
75%
Save rateContext
70%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
376
PassesContext
422
305
Accurate passesContext
346
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.70
16.00
FoulsContext
10.89
10.44
Fouls sufferedContext
11.44
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.22
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
90%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.10
ShotsContext
11.90
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
31%
On target shareContext
25%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
57%
Box shareContext
59%
9%
ConversionContext
8%
3.14
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.70
Shots allowedContext
14.70
5.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.78
BlocksContext
3.78
4.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
73%
Save rateContext
70%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
379
PassesContext
400
308
Accurate passesContext
326
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.73
15.50
FoulsContext
10.90
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Espanyol
WLLDL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,476 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 31 · 4 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
Valencia
LWLDD
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel295 km1,079 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 36 · 5 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Espanyol |
Valencia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7La Liga 2026-2027, 9 May | 7La Liga 2026-2027, 9 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 295 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,476 km | 1,079 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Espanyol
Last XI · not confirmed
1Ángel Fortuño(G)
21Roger Hinojo
6L. Cabrera
5C. Riedel
16V. Drkušić
23O. El Hilali
15Bryan Zaragoza
10Pol Lozano
8Edu Expósito
28Javi Hernández
9R. Fernández Jaén
Valencia
Last XI · not confirmed
1S. Dimitrievski(G)
14José Gayà
12J. de Haas
5César Tárrega
24Pablo Maffeo
2G. Rodríguez
18Pepelu
7A. Danjuma
8Javi Guerra
19Dani Raba
9Hugo Duro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Espanyol
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Valencia
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Espanyol · Home
0.80points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-3
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.40
Valencia · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Espanyol | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 Espanyol wins6 draws1 Valencia wins
Goals per game1.63 – 1.63
Over 2.563%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 24 Jan 2026Valencia3–2Espanyol
- 23 Sep 2025Espanyol2–2Valencia
- 22 Apr 2025Valencia1–1Espanyol
- 18 Dec 2024Espanyol1–1Valencia
- 28 May 2023Valencia2–2Espanyol
- 2 Oct 2022Espanyol2–2Valencia
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Espanyol | Valencia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.56 | 2.33 | |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 44% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 44% | |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 56% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Espanyol | Valencia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.50 | |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Espanyol | Valencia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.14 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.71 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 8.85 | 8.44 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.11 | 2.22 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.89 | 2.22 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 4.44 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 89% 8/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 89% 8/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Espanyol | Valencia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.13 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.63 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 8.76 | 9.10 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.80 | 4.40 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Espanyol9 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
3
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Valencia9 games · scored 6 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
6
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
3
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Valencia10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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