Elche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel418 kmRest days11 · 11Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Elche—%
Draw—%
Espanyol—%
Weather (Elche)
Forecast from 17 Apr
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Elche and Espanyol. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Espanyol
67%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Elche
−0.74
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.98xG against1.72
-
Alert
Elche
1.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Elche
67%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Attack
Defence
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
ElcheEspanyol
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
39
AttackIn forecast
36
51
DefenceIn forecast
51
56
Form indexContext
31
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEspanyol
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ElcheEspanyol
1.22
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
1.89
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
67%
Scored inContext
89%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
11.00
ShotsContext
12.67
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
38%
On target shareContext
29%
6.44
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
55%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.83
OffsidesContext
3.50
14.89
Shots allowedContext
13.11
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.75
3.63
BlocksContext
3.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.71
60%
Save rateContext
75%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
478
PassesContext
376
408
Accurate passesContext
305
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.64
Team ratingContext
6.78
13.44
FoulsContext
16.00
13.33
Fouls sufferedContext
10.44
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.20
ShotsContext
13.10
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
38%
On target shareContext
31%
6.44
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
55%
Box shareContext
57%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.83
OffsidesContext
3.14
14.40
Shots allowedContext
12.70
5.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.56
3.44
BlocksContext
2.78
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.38
64%
Save rateContext
73%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
463
PassesContext
379
391
Accurate passesContext
308
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.80
14.10
FoulsContext
15.50
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Elche
DLWDD
Rest11 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km704 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 56 · 6 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected
Espanyol
WLLDL
Rest11 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel418 km15 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 31 · 4 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Elche |
Espanyol |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 11La Liga 2026-2027, 21 Apr | 11La Liga 2026-2027, 21 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 418 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 704 km | 15 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Elche
Last XI · not confirmed
1M. Dituro(G)
11Germán Valera
3R. Revivo
23Víctor Chust
47J. Morcillo
2Buba Sangaré
18T. Lemar
8Marc Aguado
12Gonzalo Villar
21Lucas Cepeda
24A. Osorio
Espanyol
Last XI · not confirmed
1Ángel Fortuño(G)
21Roger Hinojo
6L. Cabrera
5C. Riedel
16V. Drkušić
23O. El Hilali
15Bryan Zaragoza
10Pol Lozano
8Edu Expósito
28Javi Hernández
9R. Fernández Jaén
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Elche
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Espanyol
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Elche · Home
0.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.75
Espanyol · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Elche | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | L 2–3 H | L 1–2 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 2–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 Elche wins3 draws2 Espanyol wins
Goals per game1.57 – 1.43
Over 2.571%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets0% · 29%
- 18 Sep 2026Espanyol1–3Elche
- 1 Mar 2026Elche2–2Espanyol
- 25 Oct 2025Espanyol1–0Elche
- 19 Feb 2023Elche0–1Espanyol
- 23 Oct 2022Espanyol2–2Elche
- 10 Jan 2022Espanyol1–2Elche
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Elche | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.89 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.11 | 2.56 | |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 56% | |
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 11% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Elche | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.50 | |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Elche | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 3.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 5.71 | |
| Match total | 9.23 | 8.85 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.44 | 3.11 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.89 | |
| Match total | 4.44 | 6.00 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 6/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 5/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Elche | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 3.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 5.63 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 8.76 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 5.80 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Elche9 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
31-45
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
Espanyol9 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
3
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
3
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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