Elche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel635 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Elche—%
Draw—%
Racing Santander—%
Weather (Elche)
Forecast from 15 May
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Elche and Racing Santander. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Elche
67%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Alert
Racing Santander
3.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Elche
−0.74
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.98xG against1.72
-
Alert
Racing Santander
2.8
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Racing Santander
67%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Alert
Elche
1.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Defence
-
Alert
Racing Santander
3.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Racing Santander
2.8
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Elche
−0.74
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.98xG against1.72
-
Alert
Elche
1.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Racing Santander
−0.70
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.47xG against2.17
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
ElcheRacing Santander
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
41
39
AttackIn forecast
42
51
DefenceIn forecast
22
56
Form indexContext
34
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRacing Santander
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ElcheRacing Santander
1.22
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.44
1.89
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.78
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.28
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
67%
Scored inContext
67%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.00
ShotsContext
11.22
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.44
38%
On target shareContext
40%
6.44
Shots in the boxContext
6.38
55%
Box shareContext
54%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.78
14.89
Shots allowedContext
16.33
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.67
3.63
BlocksContext
3.56
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
60%
Save rateContext
61%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
478
PassesContext
437
408
Accurate passesContext
362
85%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.64
Team ratingContext
6.62
13.44
FoulsContext
13.78
13.33
Fouls sufferedContext
14.78
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.60
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.17
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.20
ShotsContext
12.20
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
38%
On target shareContext
39%
6.44
Shots in the boxContext
7.56
55%
Box shareContext
57%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.80
14.40
Shots allowedContext
15.90
5.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.30
3.44
BlocksContext
3.40
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.63
64%
Save rateContext
62%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
463
PassesContext
441
391
Accurate passesContext
367
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.70
14.10
FoulsContext
13.40
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.10
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Elche
DLWDD
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km275 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 56 · 6 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected
Racing Santander
WLLDL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel635 km678 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 34 · 4 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Elche |
Racing Santander |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7La Liga 2026-2027, 23 May | 7La Liga 2026-2027, 23 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 635 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 275 km | 678 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | — | — |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Elche
Last XI · not confirmed
1M. Dituro(G)
11Germán Valera
3R. Revivo
23Víctor Chust
47J. Morcillo
2Buba Sangaré
18T. Lemar
8Marc Aguado
12Gonzalo Villar
21Lucas Cepeda
24A. Osorio
Racing Santander
Last XI · not confirmed
13Julen Agirrezabala(G)
17Jorge Salinas
24J. Belocian
5Pablo Ramón
2Álvaro Mantilla
18M. Prati
23Iván Martín
10Iñigo Vicente
8André Almeida
20Sergio Canales
21M. Zabiri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Elche
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Racing Santander
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Elche · Home
0.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.75
Racing Santander · Away
0.00points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-5
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 3.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Elche | Racing Santander |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | D 0–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 0–0 H | L 0–5 A |
| Barcelona | L 0–5 H | L 2–7 A |
| Points | 2 of 9 · 0.67 per game | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Elche wins0 draws1 Racing Santander wins
Goals per game2.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 28 Aug 2026Racing Santander3–2Elche
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Elche | Racing Santander | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 1.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.89 | 2.78 | |
| Match goals | 3.11 | 4.22 | |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 78% | |
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Elche | Racing Santander | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 2.78 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.22 | |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 78% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 67% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 33% | |
| Games | 10 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Elche | Racing Santander | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 5.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 9.23 | 12.25 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.44 | 2.78 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 4.44 | 5.45 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 6/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 5/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Elche | Racing Santander | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 6.56 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 11.56 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.90 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Elche9 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
31-45
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
Racing Santander9 games · scored 13 · conceded 25
2
3
0-15
4
3
16-30
4
7
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
8
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
Racing Santander10 games · scored 17 · conceded 26
3
3
0-15
5
3
16-30
5
7
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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