La Liga Gameweek 38 Sun, May 30 · 16:00 Estadio Benito Villamarín, Sevilla
Real Betis 4th · 19 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Atletico Madrid 2nd · 22 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel390 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Real Betis—%
Draw—%
Atletico Madrid—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Sevilla)

Forecast from 15 May

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Real Betis and Atletico Madrid. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Real BetisAtletico Madrid
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
72 Current StrengthIn forecast 81
79 AttackIn forecast 82
59 DefenceIn forecast 87
80 Form indexContext 96
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Betis

Attack—
Defense risk—

Atletico Madrid

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real BetisAtletico Madrid
1.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.11
1.56 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.89
1.65 xGVia Att/Def 1.72
1.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.98
+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.39
100% Scored inContext 89%
44% Clean sheetsContext 44%
16.44 ShotsContext 17.56
6.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.44
39% On target shareContext 37%
9.67 Shots in the boxContext 10.33
56% Box shareContext 60%
11% ConversionContext 12%
1.33 OffsidesContext 2.00
15.33 Shots allowedContext 9.56
6.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.11
3.78 BlocksContext 2.89
4.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.22
70% Save rateContext 71%
51% PossessionIn forecast 60%
495 PassesContext 590
429 Accurate passesContext 521
87% Pass accuracyContext 88%
7.03 Team ratingContext 7.05
9.89 FoulsContext 12.11
11.67 Fouls sufferedContext 11.56
1.56 Yellow cardsContext 2.22
0.11 Red cardsContext 0.11
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.71 xGVia Att/Def 1.70
1.79 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13
+0.39 Goals minus xGContext +0.30
100% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 40%
16.70 ShotsContext 16.10
6.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90
37% On target shareContext 37%
10.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.50
58% Box shareContext 58%
13% ConversionContext 12%
1.40 OffsidesContext 2.20
14.60 Shots allowedContext 10.20
6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50
3.50 BlocksContext 2.90
4.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
67% Save rateContext 71%
52% PossessionIn forecast 60%
504 PassesContext 588
438 Accurate passesContext 517
87% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.98 Team ratingContext 7.04
10.70 FoulsContext 11.30
11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.10
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Betis
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,195 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 80 · 10 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +2.3 vs expected
  • L17 OctH · Barcelona2–50.8 xPts
  • W14 OctH · FC Porto3–21.4 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Osasuna5–22.0 xPts
  • D20 SepA · Deportivo La Coruna1–11.6 xPts
  • W17 SepH · Getafe1–02.0 xPts
Atletico Madrid
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel390 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · +6.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Espanyol1–01.9 xPts
  • W13 OctH · Manchester United2–01.7 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Alaves2–11.6 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Real Madrid2–11.1 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Osasuna4–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Real Betis Atletico Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 23 May7La Liga 2026-2027, 23 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km390 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,195 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one——

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Betis Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Barcelona (H) 2–5, 17 Oct
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
11Fran García 16Valentín Gómez 3Diego Llorente 2Héctor Bellerín
25Dani Ceballos 6F. Bernal
10A. Ezzalzouli 8Pablo Fornals 20G. Lo Celso
9C. Hernández
Atletico Madrid Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-1-2 · vs Espanyol (A) 1–0, 17 Oct
13J. Oblak(G)
30Dani Martínez 17D. Hancko 21C. Romero 18Marc Pubill
23M. Hjulmand 8Pablo Barrios 20G. Simeone
7K. Lee
11A. Lookman 15J. David

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Real Betis Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Atletico Madrid Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Real Betis · Home 2.40points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
4-0-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.40
Atletico Madrid · Away 2.40points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
4-0-1
Scored
1.80
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentReal BetisAtletico Madrid
Osasuna W 5–2 H W 4–0 H
Villarreal W 2–1 A D 2–2 H
Real Madrid W 1–0 H W 2–1 H
Real Sociedad W 1–0 H W 3–0 A
Points12 of 12 · 3.00 per game10 of 12 · 2.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

2 Real Betis wins1 draws7 Atletico Madrid wins
Goals per game0.60 – 1.70 Over 2.550% Both scored40% Clean sheets30% · 40%
  • 8 Feb 2026Atletico Madrid0–1Real Betis
  • 27 Oct 2025Real Betis0–2Atletico Madrid
  • 18 May 2025Atletico Madrid4–1Real Betis
  • 27 Oct 2024Real Betis1–0Atletico Madrid
  • 3 Mar 2024Atletico Madrid2–1Real Betis
  • 20 Aug 2023Real Betis0–0Atletico Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Real BetisAtletico MadridForecast
Scored per game 1.782.11
Conceded per game 1.560.89
Match goals 3.333.00
Over 1.5 56%89%
Over 2.5 44%78%
Over 3.5 33%33%
Both teams scored 56%44%
Clean sheets 44%44%
Failed to score 0%11%
Games99
Real BetisAtletico MadridForecast
Scored per game 2.102.00
Conceded per game 1.801.00
Match goals 3.903.00
Over 1.5 70%90%
Over 2.5 60%80%
Over 3.5 50%30%
Both teams scored 70%50%
Clean sheets 30%40%
Failed to score 0%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Real BetisAtletico MadridLeague
Corners
Corners won4.785.57
Corners conceded6.443.57
Match total11.229.149.91
Over 8.578% 7/943% 3/7
Over 9.567% 6/943% 3/7
Over 10.556% 5/943% 3/7
Cards
Cards1.672.33
Opponent cards2.671.89
Match total4.344.224.73
Over 3.556% 5/967% 6/9
Over 4.556% 5/944% 4/9
Real BetisAtletico MadridLeague
Corners
Corners won4.905.00
Corners conceded5.904.25
Match total10.809.259.91
Over 8.570% 7/1050% 4/8
Over 9.570% 7/1050% 4/8
Over 10.550% 5/1050% 4/8
Cards
Cards1.902.20
Opponent cards2.601.70
Match total4.503.904.73
Over 3.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 4.560% 6/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Real Betis9 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
1 1 0-15
1 2 16-30
7 2 31-45
2 4 46-60
2 2 61-75
3 3 76-90
Atletico Madrid9 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
1 0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 2 61-75
8 3 76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 21 · conceded 18
1 2 0-15
1 2 16-30
8 3 31-45
5 5 46-60
2 3 61-75
4 3 76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 20 · conceded 10
2 0-15
3 16-30
2 2 31-45
4 3 46-60
1 2 61-75
8 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Athletic Club Rayo Vallecano May 3016:00 Malaga Sevilla May 3016:00 Levante Celta Vigo May 3016:00 Espanyol Alaves May 3016:00 Real Madrid Deportivo La Coruna May 3016:00 Real Betis Atletico Madrid May 3016:00 Getafe Barcelona May 3016:00 Real Sociedad Villarreal May 3016:00 Osasuna Valencia May 3016:00 Elche Racing Santander May 3016:00