La Liga Gameweek 38 Sun, May 30 · 16:00 Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
Real Madrid 3rd · 21 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Deportivo La Coruna 9th · 11 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel509 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Real Madrid—%
Draw—%
Deportivo La Coruna—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Madrid)

Forecast from 15 May

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Real Madrid and Deportivo La Coruna. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Real MadridDeportivo La Coruna
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
89 Current StrengthIn forecast 45
89 AttackIn forecast 40
85 DefenceIn forecast 57
91 Form indexContext 21
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Madrid

Attack—
Defense risk—

Deportivo La Coruna

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real MadridDeportivo La Coruna
2.56 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.44
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33
2.41 xGVia Att/Def 1.08
1.01 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15
+0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.36
89% Scored inContext 89%
22% Clean sheetsContext 0%
17.56 ShotsContext 11.67
7.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33
41% On target shareContext 37%
12.33 Shots in the boxContext 7.89
69% Box shareContext 64%
15% ConversionContext 12%
2.13 OffsidesContext 1.71
12.78 Shots allowedContext 12.56
4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33
3.44 BlocksContext 3.11
3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
73% Save rateContext 69%
53% PossessionIn forecast 48%
528 PassesContext 444
476 Accurate passesContext 376
90% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.17 Team ratingContext 6.79
8.44 FoulsContext 13.00
14.11 Fouls sufferedContext 11.89
2.11 Yellow cardsContext 1.78
0.22 Red cardsContext 0.22
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
2.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
2.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.08
1.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15
+0.38 Goals minus xGContext +0.32
90% Scored inContext 90%
20% Clean sheetsContext 0%
16.90 ShotsContext 11.10
7.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20
43% On target shareContext 38%
12.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.60
71% Box shareContext 66%
16% ConversionContext 13%
2.00 OffsidesContext 1.63
14.20 Shots allowedContext 11.80
5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10
3.80 BlocksContext 3.00
3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
75% Save rateContext 69%
50% PossessionIn forecast 48%
501 PassesContext 455
446 Accurate passesContext 389
89% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.13 Team ratingContext 6.77
8.90 FoulsContext 12.80
13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Madrid
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km568 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 91 · 12 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Sevilla4–12.4 xPts
  • W14 OctA · AS Roma4–31.5 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Villarreal1–02.1 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Atletico Madrid1–21.7 xPts
  • W15 SepA · Elche3–22.3 xPts
Deportivo La Coruna
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel509 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 21 · 3 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -3.7 vs expected
  • D16 OctH · Levante1–11.6 xPts
  • L11 OctA · Real Sociedad2–31.1 xPts
  • D20 SepH · Real Betis1–11.2 xPts
  • L16 SepH · Sevilla0–11.6 xPts
  • D13 SepA · Getafe1–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Real Madrid Deportivo La Coruna
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 23 May7La Liga 2026-2027, 23 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km509 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways568 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one——

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Madrid Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Sevilla (H) 4–1, 18 Oct
1T. Courtois(G)
17Marc Cucurella 4D. Huijsen 16I. Konaté 8F. Valverde
14A. Tchouaméni 15A. Güler
25Y. Diomande 5J. Bellingham 9Endrick
10K. Mbappé
Deportivo La Coruna Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Levante (H) 1–1, 16 Oct
13Leo Román(G)
12G. Quagliata 22B. Ede 20J. Giménez 23Ximo Navarro
14Riki Rodríguez 8Diego Villares 21Mario Soriano 19Luismi Cruz
32B. Nsongo 10Peke

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Real Madrid Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Deportivo La Coruna Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Real Madrid · Home 3.00points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
5-0-0
Scored
3.40
Conceded
0.60
Deportivo La Coruna · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.75
Conceded
1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

OpponentReal MadridDeportivo La Coruna
Sevilla W 4–1 H L 0–1 H
Villarreal W 1–0 H W 3–2 A
Elche W 3–2 A D 1–1 H
Real Betis L 0–1 A D 1–1 H
Malaga W 4–0 H D 1–1 A
Real Sociedad W 4–1 H L 2–3 A
Points15 of 18 · 2.50 per game6 of 18 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Real MadridDeportivo La CorunaForecast
Scored per game 2.561.44
Conceded per game 1.001.33
Match goals 3.562.78
Over 1.5 78%89%
Over 2.5 78%33%
Over 3.5 56%33%
Both teams scored 67%89%
Clean sheets 22%0%
Failed to score 11%11%
Games99
Real MadridDeportivo La CorunaForecast
Scored per game 2.701.44
Conceded per game 1.201.33
Match goals 3.902.78
Over 1.5 80%89%
Over 2.5 80%33%
Over 3.5 60%33%
Both teams scored 70%89%
Clean sheets 20%0%
Failed to score 10%11%
Games109

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Real MadridDeportivo La CorunaLeague
Corners
Corners won6.255.22
Corners conceded4.255.44
Match total10.5010.669.91
Over 8.563% 5/856% 5/9
Over 9.563% 5/856% 5/9
Over 10.563% 5/833% 3/9
Cards
Cards2.332.11
Opponent cards2.672.00
Match total5.004.114.73
Over 3.578% 7/978% 7/9
Over 4.567% 6/933% 3/9
Real MadridDeportivo La CorunaLeague
Corners
Corners won6.304.80
Corners conceded5.005.40
Match total11.3010.209.91
Over 8.570% 7/1050% 5/10
Over 9.570% 7/1050% 5/10
Over 10.570% 7/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards2.202.00
Opponent cards2.501.80
Match total4.703.804.73
Over 3.580% 8/1070% 7/10
Over 4.550% 5/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Real Madrid9 games · scored 23 · conceded 9
2 0-15
6 1 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 1 61-75
7 3 76-90
Deportivo La Coruna9 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
1 0-15
3 3 16-30
1 3 31-45
1 2 46-60
3 1 61-75
4 3 76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
2 0-15
8 1 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 5 46-60
3 1 61-75
9 4 76-90
Deportivo La Coruna10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
1 1 0-15
4 4 16-30
1 3 31-45
1 2 46-60
3 1 61-75
4 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

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Athletic Club Rayo Vallecano May 3016:00 Malaga Sevilla May 3016:00 Levante Celta Vigo May 3016:00 Espanyol Alaves May 3016:00 Real Madrid Deportivo La Coruna May 3016:00 Real Betis Atletico Madrid May 3016:00 Getafe Barcelona May 3016:00 Real Sociedad Villarreal May 3016:00 Osasuna Valencia May 3016:00 Elche Racing Santander May 3016:00