Estoril
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Estoril were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Estoril had 8 days of rest, Alverca 5.1 and had to travel 38 km.
Away travel38 kmRest days8 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Estoril46%
Draw27%
Alverca27%
Estoril46%
Draw26%
Alverca27%
Estoril46%
Draw27%
Alverca27%
Estoril39%
Draw28%
Alverca33%
Estoril46%
Draw26%
Alverca27%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Estoril)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalFabio Jose Costa Verissimo
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 10
Team strength
Estoril
Alverca
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
21
AttackIn forecast
38
29
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EstorilAlverca
1.53
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.53
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
67%
Scored inContext
67%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
12.13
ShotsContext
8.67
4.07
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.71
34%
On target shareContext
40%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
5.71
63%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.67
Shots allowedContext
13.33
4.79
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.43
BlocksContext
4.27
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.15
60%
Save rateContext
67%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
395
PassesContext
355
313
Accurate passesContext
285
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.78
12.73
FoulsContext
12.47
12.27
Fouls sufferedContext
14.20
2.93
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
60%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.60
ShotsContext
8.70
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.89
35%
On target shareContext
40%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
5.89
64%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.25
10.80
Shots allowedContext
13.90
5.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
2.20
BlocksContext
4.70
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
59%
Save rateContext
65%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
394
PassesContext
369
312
Accurate passesContext
298
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.50
FoulsContext
12.00
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.20
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estoril
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km619 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Alverca
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel38 km472 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estoril |
Alverca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 19 Dec | 5.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 22 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 38 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 619 km | 472 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Estoril
Confirmed XI
1Joel Robles(G)
24Pedro Amaral
25F. Bacher
44K. Boma
22Pedro Carvalho
10J. Holsgrove
6Jandro Orellana
12João Carvalho
14Y. Begraoui
99R. Guitane
9A. Marqués
Alverca
Confirmed XI
13André Gomes(G)
33B. Meupiyou
3Julián Jose Martinez
4Kaiky Naves
55Francisco Chissumba
8Alexsandro Amorim
21S. Abdulai
2Zoubdi
11Cedric Nuozzi
91Sandro Lima
18Lincoln
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estoril
Absences are shown before kick-off
Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Estoril+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Alverca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Estoril · Home
1.50points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-2
- Scored
- 1.63
- Conceded
- 1.38
Alverca · Away
1.00points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-4
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.43
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Estoril | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| SC Braga | W 1–0 H | L 0–3 H |
| Moreirense | D 3–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| Arouca | W 4–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| Rio Ave | W 4–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Nacional | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Casa Pia | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–2 A | L 0–4 H |
| AVS | W 3–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| Santa Clara | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Tondela | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Guimaraes | L 2–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Estrela | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 17 of 42 · 1.21 per game | 17 of 42 · 1.21 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Estoril | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.53 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.53 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.53 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 53% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 53% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 40% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Estoril | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.40 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estoril | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.85 | 3.55 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.92 | 4.36 | |
| Match total | 9.77 | 7.91 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 7/13 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 7/13 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 54% 7/13 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.93 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 5.06 | 5.27 | 5.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 93% 14/15 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 9/15 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Estoril | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.88 | 3.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.13 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 11.01 | 7.71 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 6/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 6/8 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.90 | 5.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo Portugal · 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.00league 5.15
Red cards0.20league 0.30
Cards 5+70%league 62%
Fouls26.9league 27.5
Penalties0.40league 0.45
Home wins50%league 36%
EstorilNo previous matches with this referee.
AlvercaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Estoril15 games · scored 23 · conceded 25
3
6
0-15
3
2
16-30
6
4
31-45
5
3
46-60
3
5
61-75
3
5
76-90
Alverca15 games · scored 15 · conceded 23
6
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
5
61-75
7
2
76-90
Estoril10 games · scored 15 · conceded 17
2
6
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
61-75
6
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
