Estoril vs Guimaraes – 24 Jan 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 19 Sat, Jan 24 · 20:30 Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril

Estoril 9th · 23 pts · 18 played LWWLW

4–2Full time

Guimaraes 8th · 25 pts · 18 played WLDWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Guimaraes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 34). Estoril had 5 days of rest, Guimaraes 6 and had to travel 319 km.

Away travel319 kmRest days5 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1

Estoril39%

Draw27%

Guimaraes33%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.25

Estoril40%

Draw27%

Guimaraes33%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.27

Estoril39%

Draw27%

Guimaraes33%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.25

Estoril32%

Draw27%

Guimaraes40%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.40

Estoril40%

Draw27%

Guimaraes33%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.31

Over 2.5 49% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Estoril)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalFabio Jose Costa Verissimo

Cards per match 5.4
Penalties per match 0.42
Matches 12

Team strength

Estoril

Guimaraes

34 L90 StrengthIn forecast 41

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

21 AttackIn forecast 28

29 DefenceIn forecast 39

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estoril

Attack—

Defense risk—

Guimaraes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estoril

Guimaraes

1.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.61 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.28

1.29 xGVia Att/Def 1.07

1.54 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.19

+0.54 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

72% Scored inContext 56%

17% Clean sheetsContext 33%

11.67 ShotsContext 12.83

4.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

35% On target shareContext 27%

7.67 Shots in the boxContext 6.89

65% Box shareContext 55%

16% ConversionContext 8%

1.50 OffsidesContext 2.27

11.78 Shots allowedContext 11.78

4.65 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.22

2.81 BlocksContext 3.20

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

62% Save rateContext 74%

51% PossessionIn forecast 50%

414 PassesContext 362

335 Accurate passesContext 295

81% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.79

12.72 FoulsContext 14.22

12.28 Fouls sufferedContext 15.44

2.78 Yellow cardsContext 2.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 18 and 18 games

2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.57 xGVia Att/Def 1.00

1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.21

+0.73 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

80% Scored inContext 50%

30% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.10 ShotsContext 12.80

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20

37% On target shareContext 25%

8.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.30

67% Box shareContext 58%

19% ConversionContext 7%

1.56 OffsidesContext 2.22

10.90 Shots allowedContext 11.80

5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

2.78 BlocksContext 3.33

3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

65% Save rateContext 78%

52% PossessionIn forecast 49%

442 PassesContext 353

368 Accurate passesContext 289

83% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.84

12.60 FoulsContext 14.20

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 15.90

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estoril

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km31 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Guimaraes

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel319 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estoril	Guimaraes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 19 Jan	6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 18 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	319 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	31 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.8	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estoril Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Joel Robles(G)

24Pedro Amaral 25F. Bacher 44K. Boma 2Ricard Sánchez

12João Carvalho 10J. Holsgrove 99R. Guitane 7N. Lominadze

9A. Marqués 14Y. Begraoui

Guimaraes Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25Juan Castillo(G)

13J. Teixeira Mendes 26R. Abascal 3M. Nóbrega 66T. Strata

30Gonçalo Nogueira 6Matija Mitrović

48N. Saviolo 20Samu 19O. Camara

90A. Ndoye

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estoril Absences are shown before kick-off

Guimaraes Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Estoril+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Guimaraes+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Estoril · Home 1.67points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 4-3-2
Scored: 1.89
Conceded: 1.33

Guimaraes · Away 1.25points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 3-1-4
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.13

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Estoril	Guimaraes
Estrela	W 5–0 AD 1–1 H	W 2–0 A
Benfica	L 1–3 A	L 0–3 H
Alverca	W 4–1 H	L 0–2 A
SC Braga	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 H
Famalicao	L 0–4 A	L 0–2 A
Moreirense	D 3–3 H	L 0–2 A
FC Porto	L 0–1 A	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A
Arouca	W 4–3 H	D 1–1 H
Rio Ave	W 4–0 A	W 1–0 A
Nacional	D 1–1 H	W 2–1 H
Casa Pia	D 2–2 A	D 0–0 A
Sporting CP	L 0–1 H	L 1–4 H
GIL Vicente	L 0–2 A	D 0–0 H
AVS	W 3–1 H	W 4–0 H
Santa Clara	L 0–1 H	W 2–1 H
Tondela	D 2–2 A	W 1–0 A
Points	23 of 51 · 1.35 per game	22 of 51 · 1.29 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

1 Estoril wins0 draws6 Guimaraes wins

Goals per game0.86 – 1.71 Over 2.543% Both scored43% Clean sheets14% · 43%

16 Aug 2025Guimaraes3–2Estoril
26 Jan 2025Estoril1–0Guimaraes
18 Aug 2024Guimaraes1–0Estoril
2 Mar 2024Estoril1–3Guimaraes
1 Oct 2023Guimaraes3–2Estoril
4 Feb 2023Estoril0–1Guimaraes

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Estoril	Guimaraes	Forecast
Scored per game	1.83	1.00
Conceded per game	1.61	1.28
Match goals	3.44	2.28	2.64
Over 1.5	78%	72%
Over 2.5	61%	39%	49%
Over 3.5	61%	17%
Both teams scored	56%	33%	54%
Clean sheets	17%	33%
Failed to score	28%	44%
Games	18	18

	Estoril	Guimaraes	Forecast
Scored per game	2.30	0.90
Conceded per game	1.60	1.10
Match goals	3.90	2.00	2.64
Over 1.5	80%	50%
Over 2.5	70%	40%	49%
Over 3.5	70%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	20%	54%
Clean sheets	30%	50%
Failed to score	20%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estoril	Guimaraes	League
Corners
Corners won	4.56	4.28
Corners conceded	4.94	3.39
Match total	9.50	7.67	9.16
Over 8.5	56% 9/16	44% 8/18
Over 9.5	56% 9/16	28% 5/18
Over 10.5	44% 7/16	17% 3/18
Cards
Cards	2.78	2.50
Opponent cards	2.11	3.17
Match total	4.89	5.67	5.37
Over 3.5	89% 16/18	72% 13/18
Over 4.5	61% 11/18	67% 12/18

	Estoril	Guimaraes	League
Corners
Corners won	5.22	4.30
Corners conceded	4.56	3.80
Match total	9.78	8.10	9.16
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.60
Opponent cards	2.20	3.10
Match total	4.40	5.70	5.37
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo Portugal · 12 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.25league 5.02

Red cards0.17league 0.30

Cards 5+75%league 59%

Fouls26.2league 27.3

Penalties0.42league 0.46

Home wins50%league 38%

Estoril1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W27 Dec 25H · Alverca4–12

Guimaraes1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L17 May 25A · Sporting CP0–24

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.