Estoril vs Rio Ave – 22 Mar 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 27 Sun, Mar 22 · 15:30 Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril

Estoril 7th · 37 pts · 26 played LWLDW

1–2Full time

Rio Ave 14th · 27 pts · 26 played LLDWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Estoril were slight favourites.

Estoril were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Rio Ave. Estoril had 7 days of rest, Rio Ave 6.9 and had to travel 300 km.

Away travel300 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2

Estoril48%

Draw28%

Rio Ave24%

Expected goals 1.47 – 0.97

Estoril54%

Draw25%

Rio Ave21%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.02

Estoril48%

Draw28%

Rio Ave24%

Expected goals 1.47 – 0.97

Estoril41%

Draw29%

Rio Ave30%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.09

Estoril49%

Draw27%

Rio Ave25%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.02

Over 2.5 44% Both score 48% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Estoril)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalAndre Filipe Domingues Narciso

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 7

Team strength

Estoril

Rio Ave

35 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 21

21 AttackIn forecast 18

29 DefenceIn forecast 21

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estoril

Attack—

Defense risk—

Rio Ave

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estoril

Rio Ave

1.81 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.62 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.73

1.29 xGVia Att/Def 0.95

1.53 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.56

+0.52 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

69% Scored inContext 58%

19% Clean sheetsContext 15%

11.54 ShotsContext 9.46

4.12 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

36% On target shareContext 37%

7.46 Shots in the boxContext 6.04

64% Box shareContext 60%

16% ConversionContext 11%

1.50 OffsidesContext 2.43

11.65 Shots allowedContext 15.31

4.32 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.15

2.83 BlocksContext 4.08

2.79 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.48

63% Save rateContext 66%

53% PossessionIn forecast 47%

425 PassesContext 378

349 Accurate passesContext 314

82% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.80

12.23 FoulsContext 13.08

12.04 Fouls sufferedContext 14.96

2.54 Yellow cardsContext 2.46

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 26 and 26 games

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.36 xGVia Att/Def 0.97

1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

+0.64 Goals minus xGContext -0.27

70% Scored inContext 40%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.90 ShotsContext 10.50

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.89

39% On target shareContext 33%

7.10 Shots in the boxContext 6.00

66% Box shareContext 55%

18% ConversionContext 7%

1.44 OffsidesContext 2.33

11.70 Shots allowedContext 13.10

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

3.44 BlocksContext 3.10

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

66% Save rateContext 60%

56% PossessionIn forecast 48%

453 PassesContext 393

382 Accurate passesContext 328

84% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.73

11.60 FoulsContext 12.50

11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 15.40

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estoril

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,909 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Rio Ave

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel300 km217 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estoril	Rio Ave
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 15 Mar	6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 15 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	300 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,909 km	217 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	15.1	13.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estoril Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Joel Robles(G)

2Ricard Sánchez 25F. Bacher 4Ferro 22Pedro Carvalho

10J. Holsgrove 5A. Tsoungui 8Xeka

12João Carvalho 14Y. Begraoui 99R. Guitane

Rio Ave Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

99E. van der Gouw(G)

6N. Abbey 39Gustavo Mancha 32J. Brabec 17M. Vrousai

5A. Ntoi 44T. Nikitscher

18D. Špikić 80O. Pohlmann 7Diogo Bezerra

11Jalen Blesa

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estoril Absences are shown before kick-off

Rio Ave Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Estoril+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Rio Ave+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Estoril · Home 1.77points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 6-5-2
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.31

Rio Ave · Away 1.08points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 3-5-5
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.85

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Estoril	Rio Ave
Nacional	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H	L 0–4 AD 1–1 H
Casa Pia	D 0–0 HD 2–2 A	W 3–1 H
Sporting CP	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H	L 0–4 A
GIL Vicente	W 3–1 HL 0–2 A	D 2–2 A
AVS	L 0–3 AW 3–1 H	W 2–1 A
Tondela	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H
Santa Clara	W 4–2 AL 0–1 H	D 1–1 H
Guimaraes	W 4–2 HL 2–3 A	L 0–1 H
Estrela	W 5–0 AD 1–1 H	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A
Benfica	L 1–3 A	L 0–2 HD 1–1 A
Alverca	W 4–1 H	D 1–1 A
SC Braga	W 1–0 H	L 0–3 AD 2–2 H
Famalicao	L 0–4 A	D 0–0 HD 0–0 A
Moreirense	D 3–3 H	L 1–2 HL 1–3 A
FC Porto	L 0–1 A	L 0–1 AL 0–3 H
Arouca	W 4–3 H	L 0–3 HD 3–3 A
Points	34 of 75 · 1.36 per game	27 of 75 · 1.08 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

3 Estoril wins3 draws1 Rio Ave wins

Goals per game1.86 – 1.14 Over 2.557% Both scored57% Clean sheets29% · 14%

1 Nov 2025Rio Ave0–4Estoril
22 Feb 2025Estoril2–1Rio Ave
21 Sep 2024Rio Ave2–2Estoril
31 Jan 2024Rio Ave1–1Estoril
20 Aug 2023Estoril2–0Rio Ave
13 Feb 2023Rio Ave2–0Estoril

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Estoril	Rio Ave	Forecast
Scored per game	1.81	1.00
Conceded per game	1.62	1.73
Match goals	3.42	2.73	2.44
Over 1.5	77%	81%
Over 2.5	65%	62%	44%
Over 3.5	58%	31%
Both teams scored	54%	50%	48%
Clean sheets	19%	15%
Failed to score	31%	42%
Games	26	26

	Estoril	Rio Ave	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.70
Conceded per game	1.60	1.70
Match goals	3.60	2.40	2.44
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	80%	60%	44%
Over 3.5	60%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	30%	48%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	30%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estoril	Rio Ave	League
Corners
Corners won	4.33	3.92
Corners conceded	4.83	6.44
Match total	9.16	10.36	9.24
Over 8.5	54% 13/24	72% 18/25
Over 9.5	42% 10/24	60% 15/25
Over 10.5	33% 8/24	48% 12/25
Cards
Cards	2.54	2.62
Opponent cards	2.23	2.38
Match total	4.77	5.00	5.13
Over 3.5	85% 22/26	65% 17/26
Over 4.5	58% 15/26	58% 15/26

	Estoril	Rio Ave	League
Corners
Corners won	3.80	4.30
Corners conceded	4.50	5.40
Match total	8.30	9.70	9.24
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.10
Opponent cards	2.30	1.70
Match total	4.30	3.80	5.13
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso Portugal · 7 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.14league 4.81

Red cards0.14league 0.26

Cards 5+43%league 58%

Fouls31.6league 27.0

Penalties0.29league 0.43

Home wins86%league 41%

Estoril1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L30 Nov 25A · FC Porto0–13

Rio Ave

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.